With a resurgence in an old African way of grabbing political power through force or subterfuge, Guinea offers a heartening pro-democracy counterbalance. President Alpha Conde, triumphant in the country’s first post 1958-Independence election, says sensible things on global platforms and appears to be delivering the important stuff at home – a steady supply of electricity and a military that stay in their barracks, no small achievement in an African context. Among his less obvious but equally important reforms has been transparency on mining rights in a nation which among the world’s largest iron ore and bauxite reserves. The entire allocation process is conducted online, opening it to public scrutiny. This innovation, sadly, far been thus far not been widely replicated elsewhere on the continent. Conde has his critics. I regularly receive emails from a group who provide video clips and pother evidence claiming he is corrupt. But from the record and delivery achieved of Conde’s first term, the 77-year-old is shaping up as an African success story. And looks set to have his mandate renewed when Guineans go to the polls on Sunday. – Alec Hogg
By Franz Wild and Ougna Camara
(Bloomberg) — Guinean President Alpha Conde strengthened his bid for a second term in Oct. 11 elections against a divided opposition by securing a steady energy supply and keeping the military out of politics to shore up a transition from dictatorship to democracy.
In Africa’s top bauxite producer where political alliances are largely ethnic, the biggest risk is of clashes between supporters of Conde, 77, and those of Cellou Dalein Diallo, his main challenger in a field of eight candidates. The election is only the second democratic vote since independence in 1958. Conde may require a second round run-off to win, according to New York-based Eurasia Group analyst Ayso van Eysinga.
A Conde win “ought to be good for investor confidence,” he said in a phone interview. “He’ll try and push through more mining agreements. That’ll give the economy new impetus.”
Conde’s ability to keep the soldiers in the barracks has buoyed investor confidence that will be needed if Guinea is to develop the world’s biggest bauxite reserves and giant iron-ore deposits. Short-term prospects aren’t encouraging, as the world’s worst-ever Ebola outbreak and low metal prices have stifled growth of the $6.5 billion economy, according to the International Monetary Fund.
“The business climate has improved a lot,” Fadi Wazni, the treasurer of Guinea’s chamber of mines who runs businesses from mining to trucking, said in an interview. “Every investor needs security and peace of mind. We were in a state of insecurity and anxiety.”
Military Strongmen
Guinea was ruled for decades by military strongmen, including Lansana Conte, who often based himself at the Almamy Samory Toure military camp in downtown Conakry, the capital. Today the soldiers patrolling the streets or guarding the camp’s moldy walls are gone.
“It’s much better without the military now,” Yousouf Bangoura, 31, said across the road from the camp. “They were everywhere before, harassing us.”
As he spoke, Bangoura sat in front of a green shack where customers pay to recharge their mobile phones, a business he’s been able to run since a Chinese-built hydropower dam was completed in July. That’s tripled energy supply and given many in Conakry their first-ever access to a stable supply of electricity.
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The country’s road to democracy hasn’t been easy. Elections to reinstate parliament were delayed by two years, and clashes between party supporters caused dozens of deaths. Local elections still haven’t taken place.
The Malinke people are Conde’s biggest support base, while Diallo draws his backing from the Peul, the largest of about two dozen ethnic groups in the country.
Ethnic Divisions
“The politicians are creating ethnic divisions,” Mouctar Diawara, 32, a French teacher in Conakry’s suburbs, said in an interview. “It’s dangerous.”
With accusations that the electoral commission is biased toward Conde and that the electoral roll may be tampered with to favor him, Diallo signaled in an interview that fraudulent results may spark violence.
Unrest springing from such protests probably won’t drag on, Van Eysinga said.
While Conde has helped consolidate the transition to democracy, a weak administration means much of the decision-making happens within his office, creating a bottleneck for government action, according to observers, including U.S. Ambassador Alex Laskaris.
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“Guinea’s made a pretty good transition from dictatorship to democracy,” Laskaris said in an interview in Conakry. “I don’t think it’s made the transition from individual rule to institutional quite as well. The presidency is strong.”
Even with the advances, in a country where United Nations data shows that 43 percent of the population still lives on less than $1.25 a day and one in 10 children die before their fifth birthday, many voters are impatient.
“What’s really on my mind is money,” said Bangoura, who says that while he has a university degree in linguistics, he lives in a one-bedroom home with his parents and four siblings. “Life is very expensive. There are no jobs.”
