Alec Hogg on #Brexit positives but calls grow for a second referendum.

The global market buzzword is still Brexit as most try come to terms with what European life without Britain will be like. But others are not so sure with FT columnist Gideon Rachman leading the choir that says it won’t happen, and a second referendum is coming. Biznews’ Alec Hogg, speaking from London, is a regular contributor on the Kyknet show Winslyn, and here he’s speaking to Divan Botha for more on Brexit. – Stuart Lowman

Divan Botha: Alec Hogg now joins me via Skype to talk about the Brexit result. Hello Alec.

Alec Hogg: Hello Divan.

Alec, I always think to myself, the pollsters got it completely wrong and also, almost everybody got it wrong. Why?

Well, you have to go back two elections when the Conservatives won the general election in England by a landslide (or certainly, by a majority). At that point in time, the pollsters were all saying it was going to be a hung parliament – that they’d need to do a coalition. They got it wrong there but the betting got it right. The betting said that the Conservatives would win. When Scotland wanted to leave the U.K., it was the same thing. The pollsters said at that time that they weren’t too sure. It was touch and go, but the betting said ‘definitely, Scotland would not leave the U.K.’ This time around, the polls were all saying they weren’t going to leave the European Union. Brexit wasn’t going to happen and the betting was saying the same thing. Of course, as we know, everybody got it wrong. In fact, at 11 o’clock on the night of the vote, the last poll to come out said it was 52/48 for staying in the EU. That was the very last poll.

Alec you’re in London at the moment. Ordinary South Africans living and working in London: what’s the impact?

Divan, it could be good and I say this for a couple of reasons. They are members of the Commonwealth (being South Africans). Obviously, they would have the right visas. Commonwealth people are treated a lot better than immigrants from the European Union. They had a vote. In fact, anybody from the Commonwealth… As a South African, you got to have a vote into Brexit because you’re from a Commonwealth country. The second thing is South Africans are very hardworking. The job market is going to tighten up. There’s no doubt. Then companies will be looking for maybe, the more hardworking people. Thirdly, property prices are coming down. The Pound’s coming down. If you’re using South African Rands, they stretch further.

We see it a lot and we heard Wouter talking about it earlier. What’s the effect on South African businesses listed on the JSE but with big exposures in international markets?

Not a whole lot at the moment. We know that Markus Jooste is going to have a lot more firepower now from Steinhoff in doing the deals that he wants to do in the U.K. You might remember. He’s tried two already with London Stock Exchange-listed companies, which he’s withdrawn from but Steinhoff is now making a bid for PoundLand and the drop in the Pound suddenly makes Steinhoff’s Euro’s worth ten percent more. If anything, it’s a very good thing for South African businesses wanting to expand in the U.K.

I just had the head of the Independent Party specifically talking about Scotland. The Scots and the Irish very clearly said, “We’d love to stay in the EU.” What’s the expectation on the ground? It’s almost as though they’re saying ‘England isn’t really representing us’ or ‘the United Kingdom isn’t really representing us’. Are they going to vote for independence?

Well, the Scots have a look over the Irish sea and they see that the Republic of Ireland has done very well with all the money that’s been planted in there from the European Union. There’s also quite a lot of EU money that’s gone into Scotland. They had a plan and their plan was (very clearly) that they would again ask for a referendum for independence if the U.K. left the EU. That’s very much on track. Whether they go ahead with it or not is still up in the air. What they’re trying to do in Scotland right now, is some kind of a deal with the EU where they stay in, but they still stay part of the U.K. Don’t ask me how that works, but they’re looking for a way to have their cake and eat it, I guess. At the end of the day, it’s likely there’ll be another referendum in Scotland and this time around, the Scots might well vote to leave the U.K.

First Minister of Scotland says she had "very sympathetic" response over country's EU future from European Commission president after talks

— Sky News Breaking (@SkyNewsBreak) June 29, 2016

With David Cameron leaving at the end of October, do the Brits have any idea who’s going to do the negotiations between England and the European Union now? What’s the talk on the ground?

Osbourne, the Finance Minister who is extremely competent, is likely to be part of that delegation even though he said he’s not going to stay on as Chancellor of the Exchequer (as they call them here). Boris Johnson who led the Leave campaign and says that Winston Churchill is his hero, is almost certainly going to be the person leading the negotiations. He is the hot favourite to be the next Prime Minister but the problem with the Conservative Party is that not since the 1960’s has the favourite taken over as leader of a party. It’s very interesting. Of course, today we had two of the big media houses in London saying it’s likely that they won’t leave the EU. There will be a second referendum. That could happen.

Alec, I’d love to talk to you more. I think there’s so much uncertainty but we’ll chat again soon. Thank you so much.

Bye.

That was Alec Hogg of Biznews.com talking about Brexit.