By Alec Hogg
The past nine months here in London have opened my eyes to how a First World existence can reduce the frictional cost of life. But it’s far from perfect. Yesterday’s underground train strike forced me to cancel two long-planned appointments.
It also got me musing about the future world of work and a reminder of my visit to Hong Kong a few years ago. A friend whose group imports furniture from China arranged a day trip to his buying office in Shenzhen, an hour north of the former British colony. The visit was an education. The office manager had a doctorate. Each of the buyers were graduates, some of them with two degrees.
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When I asked my pal how he managed to employ such highly qualified people in relatively junior roles, he explained China has 300 million unemployed. So expectations are tempered.
My daughters both did their university degrees in Ireland, the nation of Saints and Scholars. But jobs for young people there are tight with thousands of degreed Irish lads and lasses emigrating, mostly to Canada and Australia, where their qualification opens positions more stimulating than burger flipping.
Clearly, the struggle to land a first-time job is not restricted to South Africa. The world of work has changed. Dramatically. The sluggish global economy is part of the reason. But a bigger, more stealthy job-killer is technology. For decades, machines have been replacing human beings in manufacturing. Now, with Artificial Intelligence reaching the tipping point, other sectors are being affected.
Until the Industrial Revolution, self-employment was the norm. Whether you tilled the fields, repaired clothes or shoed horses, the money earned was in direct proportion to your effort and talent. Dedicated jobs were generally of short duration and sporadic. Only with the creation of corporations were we introduced to a concept of full time employment. Ushering in a period where those with capital bought the labour of those prepared to sell all their time.
If ever a structure was designed to create conflict, the hierarchical corporation is it. But with information on pretty much everything now freely available, the corporation’s walls are crumbling.
So what might replace it? Chances are the new world of work will look a lot like it did a couple of centuries back. During the pre-Industrial Age, most of mankind were self-employed. This was a time when one honed your marketable skills to exchange them for fair reward. The good news is it won’t happen overnight. The bad news is that many of the jobs we take for granted today simply won’t exist at some point in future. Forewarned is forearmed.
