By Alec Hogg
South Africa’s State of the Nation address last night was troubling. Not just because of the chaotic scenes beforehand which, once again, led to opposition parties’ MPs leaving the chamber. More so because at a time when the nation desperately needs leadership, what it got was an empty vessel in full cry.
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But at least one thing is crystal clear. There can be no more doubting the kind of South Africa Jacob Zuma wants. He envisions a country uncomfortably similar to Robert Mugabe’s rapidly imploding Zimbabwe. One where the State competes with the private sector by creating its own taxpayer-subsidised enterprises. And one where you can create an alternate reality – ignore ratings agencies by creating your own one.
Most of all, though, Zuma’s “radical economic transformation” strategy is the antithesis of Nelson Mandela’s Rainbow Nation. Where Mandela treasured nation building, tolerance and forgiveness, Zuma spews division, retribution and revenge. Where Mandela embraced his former enemies, knowing he could turn them into productive, tax generating citizens, Zuma wants them gone.
I saw this last night on Twitter when my comment that Zuma was pulling the race card – as he did on numerous occasions – was met with a firestorm of retorts. If he was just repeating the facts, my critics said (some crudely), then how can it be a “race card”?
That misses the point. Firstly, many of Zuma’s ”facts” are at best dubious. But more so, his position the country is owned and dominated by whites. Specifically white males who, he claimed “are afforded higher levels of recruitment, promotion and training opportunities.” That makes no sense in light of the employment policies of SA companies. Nor do the heavily skewed statistics presented on the supposed racial breakdown of management. At least not for anyone who has looked at JSE listed companies’ audited annual reports.
Zuma at least upped his previous claim of Black ownership of JSE listed companies from 3% to 10%. But that still goes against every other credible analysis of shareholder registers, including by the JSE itself. But all this matters not. It’s all politics. And Zuma has adopted a new political position. It relies on the majority of his countrymen embracing the fight against a common enemy he calls “white monopoly capital”.
Will it succeed? Not necessarily. According to the global Edelmans Trust Barometer, SA’s Government is the most distrusted on earth. Just 15% of its citizens trust the regime – a hefty nine percentage points behind Brazil which impeached its President last year. This is supported by the seismic shift in voting patterns during last August’s municipal elections.
Last night Jacob Zuma launched another big gamble, this time threatening to extract the heart of Mandela’s Rainbow Nation. There is no guarantee he will achieve his objective. Sensible voices in organised religion, labour, civil society and opposition politics are being heard. Their cause is noble. And that’s the side which tends to win in the end.
