When rugby is like horse racing – how to predict a winner

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By David O’Sullivan

We’re at the sharp end of the Super Rugby competition, the quarterfinals are this weekend and rugby fans are arguing about who’s going to win.

If the rugby experts could accurately predict the outcome of matches, Naas Botha and Nick Mallett would make a fortune out of the bookies. The only person who became wealthy from sports betting was Biff Tanen, and he was a character from Back to the Future Part II who had a time machine and a book of sports results.

Super Rugby
Super Rugby

So, without the DeLorean and sports almanac, how do you predict a winner? Having a one-eyed dedication to a team makes it easy, otherwise any number of factors have to be taken into account: current form, previous form, weather conditions, history of encounters between the two teams, team selection, home ground advantage, difficulties in travelling…it’s a long list.

I reckon it’s a like selecting a winner in a horse race.

There was a time when I was the anchor for SABC2’s coverage of the Durban July and the J&B Met. I know nothing about horse racing, and so, for a fortnight before the big race, I used to study like it was an exam. I would talk to jockeys and trainers, bookies and punters. I would read Computaform, Sporting Post and the Citizen. I would become an expert on that race on that day.

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I would weigh up the chances of each horse to win the race. After all the talking and reading was done and the form guide was complete I could make a case for every single horse to win the race. I could also make a case for every single horse NOT to win the race. Which made me a completely useless person to ask “so who do you fancy for this year’s July/Met?”

I used to think there was one sure-fire rule: the horse drawn on the outside (furthest from the rail) couldn’t win as it had too much distance to make up compared with the horses drawn nearest the rail. Less of a sure-fire rule, but something the punters used to say was: bet on anything Striker Strydom is riding.

So this year, Striker Strydom was on The Conglomerate, starting from the extreme outside draw of 18. He might as well have been running on the beach, according to the punters. He won. If I had gone with the rule that horses drawn wide don’t win, I would have lost. If I had gone with the rule that Striker Strydom rides the winners, I would have won.

Racing guides specifically detail a horse’s past form and compare his or her performance with other horses. If Epoxy beat Beer Goggles (both real horses’ names, by the way) over 1500m, and Flat Fleet Feet (a commentator’s nightmare) beat Epoxy over 2100m, how will Beer Goggles fare against Flat Fleet Feet over the same distance? The form guide will give you the required information.

My two experts in the TV studio were former champion jockeys – Garth Puller and the great Michael “Muis” Roberts, who used to ride for Queen Elizabeth. They would choose the winner based on which horse looked best during the canter down to the start. They would look to see if the horses’ tails were up, if their nostrils were flared, how skittish they were, how sweaty they were. They always agreed which horse looked best on the day, and that horse always won. But in 2008, they disagreed. Garth fancied Dancer’s Daughter, while Michael preferred Pocket Power. Both horses won in a dead heat.

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I realised I had as much chance of picking a winner through an informed process as I did by throwing a dart over my shoulder at a dartboard covered with the names of all the horses in the field. The only sure answer I could give, based on Garth and Michael’s winning formula, was “depends how the horse feels on the day”.

I also realised that the bookies never go out of business. They have a better idea of who’s going to win and offer odds accordingly. But they’ll also get it wrong now and then. Like in 2005 when the 28-10 favourite Rabiya broke its leg during the race and was tragically put down. A 50-1 outsider called Dunford stole the show.

So who will win the quarterfinals of Super Rugby this year? Can we use the same information as horse racing punters? Should we have a rugby version of Computaform? Let me give you a little bit of info to help you make an informed choice.

Take the Sharks v Hurricanes. The Sharks don’t travel well, Lambie is out and Garth April is inexperienced, the Sharks have only won once in Wellington. But the Sharks are the Hurricanes’ bogey team, losing to them 6 times in 9 matches. The Sharks have a superb tactical kicking game, with 26 kicks per game. The Hurricanes topped the Super Rugby log, but this is playoff time and they’re bad at knockout matches – losing 7 of 9 playoffs. Their big men are on form and they ooze experience. Pick your winner from that?

What about the Lions v Crusaders? The Lions finished ahead of the Crusaders on the log, and should have topped it but for their loss against the Sunwolves. They’ve scored more tries than any other team in Super Rugby. Their Springbok players have all had a break. Warren Whiteley is back as captain. The Crusaders aren’t as powerful as in previous seasons, they’re without Nemani Nadolo, they’ve had to travel, they’re playing at altitude, they’re playing at Ellis Park. But the Lions have a 46% win record against NZ sides at Ellis Park, Sam Whitelock is back, the Crusaders beat the Lions 43-37 in April. Does any of that help you?

Finally, we have the Stormers v the Chiefs. The Stormers have had to travel, they haven’t played any NZ sides this season, they’ve lost 7 of their last 11 games against the Chiefs, they do poorly in playoffs winning once in 7 attempts. But they’ve mastered a game plan based on their solid defence, they force penalties out of their opposition and have kicked more penalties than any other team this season. They won the last two of their matches against the Chiefs, they have the best locks in Super Rugby. Any clues about a potential winner there?

As with horse racing, the more information you have, the more difficult it is to choose a winner. As with horse racing, let’s see what the bookies say. They’ve got the Highlanders to beat the Brumbies, the Chiefs to beat the Stormers, the Hurricanes to beat the Sharks, and the Lions to beat the Crusaders.

I might go with that. Or it depends on how the teams feel on the day.

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