In the first of a three part preview of the 2014 Super Rugby competition, we will examine the Australian teams as we predict likely success and failure. Sadly, it isn’t good news for the Aussie supporters.
By Michael Marnewick
2013 wasn’t a bad year for the Australian teams, like the South African and New Zealand conferences, they also contributed two teams to the Finals Series. But that was all they had to smile about.
The Reds didn’t quite make it past the quarter-finals while the Brumbies managed to work their way into the Final, losing to the Chiefs.
But they have lost their coach, one Jake White, former Bok and now Sharks coach (or Director of Rugby which is the same thing really for practical purposes) and their future doesn’t appear to be quite so rosy. White took a rag-tag bunch of nobodies and turned them into a classy side.
He may have ruffled some feathers being quoted as calling South African rugby players stupid and their Australian counterparts much more vocal. He did qualify this explaining that Australian rugby players were generally privately schooled where they were encouraged to question the status quo (by contrast, the Aussie Rules and League players attend government schools) and as such, needed to understand the reasoning behind training methods. By contrast, South Africans rugby players have often come through very traditional schooling and upbringing where the law was parents’ and teachers’ rule and not to be disobeyed but accepted as an unquestionable truth.
Stephen Larkham has taken over as Head Coach and whilst his playing pedigree was tops, his coaching credentials at this level (he was assistant to Jake White in 2012/13) have yet to be tested.
The Reds, the only other decent Aussie side in the last couple of years, have lost Ewen McKenzie to the Wallaby head job and one gets the feeling they won’t be quite the force of recent past, although a top 6 finish is certainly within their grasp. They will be coached by journeyman Richard Graham in 2014.
I think the Waratahs will continue to flatter to deceive: promise much and deliver little.
In a truly world class tournament such as Super Rugby, three or four teams simply don’t belong in it and Australia provides two examples. The Force and Rebels will deliver to their potential which is the lower part of the table.
I also think the national rugby psyche is at a low following a disastrous international season that saw them losing most of their games and failing to beat the likes of South Africa, New Zealand and England and finishing third out of four in the Rugby Championship (beating Argentina twice).
I just can’t see the Australian sides mounting decent opposition to the new Zealand and South African sides, both countries coming into the tournament with a lot of quality and belief.
With all the turmoil in Australian rugby, only someone with insider knowledge (or a need for counselling) would opt to place a fiver on one of them pulling off the upset of the decade.
How they did and are expected to fare:
Brumbies
Log Position in 2013: 3 (Losing Finalists)
Prediction for 2014: Top 6 Finish
What William Hill believes: 3rd (7/1)
And Bet.co.za: 3rd (6/1)
Reds
Log Position in 2013: 5 (Quarter-final losers)
Prediction for 2014: 7-8 finish
What William Hill believes: 9th (16/1)
And Bet.co.za: 9th (14/1)
Waratahs
Log Position in 2013: 9
Prediction for 2014: 9-10 finish
What William Hill believes: 6th (10/1)
And Bet.co.za: 6th (11/1)
Rebels
Log Position in 2013: 12
Prediction for 2014: To occupy bottom four
What William Hill believes: 15th (150/1)
And Bet.co.za: 13th (99/1)
Force
Log Position in 2013: 13
Prediction for 2014: To occupy bottom three
What William Hill believes: 15th (150/1)
And Bet.co.za: 14th (124/1)
