The UK is only a fortnight away from the critical Brexit vote where its citizens decide whether or not to leave the European Union. The British news media is overflowing with pundits providing compelling arguments this way and that. Pollsters say it is too close to call. I disagree.
In such issues it always pays to follow the money. And despite emotional arguments to “take back our country”, the odds are heavily against the Leavers. Betting exchange Betfair has taken wagers worth £21m on the two horse race. Those backing Remain will today secure a profit of just 35p for each pound wagered; betting on Leave offers £2.80 for each pound staked.
Using simple arithmetic, that means there is eight times as much chance of Britons voting to stay in the EU than to leave it. Those are similar odds offered on Hillary Clinton vs Donald Trump. Of course, shocks do happen. But 2016 has already had its Black Swan in the 5 000/1 Premier League winner Leicester City.
