I made a novice’s mistake on Brexit by misinterpreting anthropologist Kate Fox’s brilliant guide Watching The English. Not having been here, I’d not witnessed the anti-EU pressure that had been dripping for decades. An excellent reminder that outsiders need time to get the picture.
One of the those who did get Brexit right was Dan Brocklebank of value investment house Orbis. That fact is recorded for posterity through our interview that’s published on Biznews. But when we spoke even he admitted being bemused at opinion polls which pointed towards Brexit while betting markets were heavily in favour of Remain.
Caught up with Dan again yesterday when he shared how Mr Market got it so wrong. Quite simple really – as with all betting markets, the odds reflected the volume of money, not the number of bettors. Rich southerners, especially those in the City, punted more heavily than less endowed fellows elsewhere in the UK and the odds reflected this.
Traders in sterling and shares took their erroneous cue from the betting markets. But when the British went into polling booths, rich and poor made a single cross. How obvious such complicated things appear with the benefit of hindsight.
