Iran Oil Minister: If OPEC cartel breaks up, oil price could drop to $40

There are two ways of reading this story. One is to wonder whether the warning will be heeded and the oil producing cartel will act in its own self-interest, stay together and maintain still artificially high prices. The other is to hope the Iranian Oil Minister is ignored, and look forward to even more of an already $1.3trn swing in wealth that the oil price plunge has brought so far. The people of South Africa are very clearly on the side oil the consumers. From its perspective, any further disintegration of OPEC is cause for applause. The recent price slide has already added more than 2% to next year’s GDP growth rate. Any more and we may even avoid a tax hike in the February Budget. OK, maybe not, but at least using the car is more affordable.  See the update further down the page. – AH

By Anthony DiPaola

Oil refineryDec. 10 (Bloomberg) — Any break in OPEC solidarity or a price war will drive crude to below $50 or even $40 a barrel, Iran’s oil ministry head of petroleum market analysis said.

Middle East crude producers Saudi Arabia and Iraq this month increased the discounts used to set the official prices for their main crudes for buyers in Asia to the widest in more than a decade. Sellers want to defend market share as oil tumbled into a bear market amid a global glut exacerbated by the highest U.S. production in three decades. OPEC decided unanimously on Nov. 27 to maintain its output target, prompting a drop in benchmark Brent crude to less than $70 a barrel for the first time since May 2010.

“Any break in OPEC solidarity or price war will lead to an enormous price dive shock” that would push oil to $40 or $50, Mohammad Sadegh Memarian said at a conference in Dubai yesterday. The drop to less than $80 is already below market equilibrium, he said.

Crude prices have declined about 40 percent from a June peak amid overproduction and sluggish growth in consumption. Saudi Arabia led OPEC’s decision to maintain rather than cut output last month in Vienna, citing the threat U.S. shale presents to the group’s market share, Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh said on Nov. 28. Financially-strapped OPEC members such as Iran and Venezuela had called for a cut.

Largest Exporter

Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest crude exporter, reduced its crude selling price to Asia last week. Iraq announced two days ago that it will sell its Basrah Light crude next month to customers in Asia at the steepest discount in at least 11 years. The two nations are the biggest producers in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

Iran, hobbled by economic sanctions over its nuclear program, wants to boost oil output to 4.8 million barrels a day once the curbs are removed, Memarian said. Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s largest producer, should then “adjust its output marginally to accommodate” Iran’s increase, he said.

Iran pumped 2.78 million barrels a day last month, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The country is negotiating with the U.S. and five other world powers toward an accord that would limit Iran’s nuclear work in exchange for an end to sanctions.

The U.S. has weakened Iran’s negotiating position in the nuclear talks by “engineering” a 40 percent decline in oil prices, Memarian said. Not reaching a solution in the nuclear talks could heighten geopolitical tensions, he said. Brent was trading at about $66 a barrel yesterday. – BLOOMBERG

UPDATE:

Dec. 10 (Bloomberg) — Brent resumed its decline as an Iranian official predicted a further slump in prices if solidarity among OPEC members falters. West Texas Intermediate in New York also erased yesterday’s gains.

Futures slid as much as 1.6 percent in London after snapping a five-day losing streak. Crude could fall to as low as $40 a barrel amid a price war or if divisions emerge in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, said an official at Iran’s oil ministry. The 12-member group, which supplies 40 percent of the world’s oil, may need to call an extraordinary meeting in the first quarter if the drop continues, according to Energy Aspects Ltd.

Brent has collapsed 40 percent this year as OPEC agreed at a Nov. 27 gathering not to cut output to force a slowdown in U.S. production, which has risen to the highest level in three decades. Saudi Arabia and Iraq this month widened discounts on crude exports to their customers in Asia, bolstering speculation that group members are fighting for market share.

“With OPEC looking like a dysfunctional family, no pullback in U.S. production and a lack of geopolitical concerns, it’s all adding up to lower prices,” Michael McCarthy, a chief strategist at CMC Markets in Sydney, said by phone today.

Brent for January settlement decreased as much as $1.06 to $65.78 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange and was at $66.25 at 3:12 p.m. Singapore time. The contract climbed 65 cents to $66.84 yesterday. The European benchmark crude traded at a premium of $3.12 to WTI.

 

Iranian Output

 

WTI for January delivery fell as much as $1, or 1.6 percent, to $62.82 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It increased 77 cents to $63.82 yesterday. The volume of all futures traded was about 2 percent below the 100-day average.

Oil’s collapse has left the market below equilibrium, according to Mohammad Sadegh Memarian, the head of petroleum market analysis at the oil ministry in Tehran. Iran, hobbled by economic sanctions over its nuclear program, wants to raise production to 4.8 million barrels a day once the curbs are removed, he said at a conference in Dubai yesterday.

OPEC pumped 30.56 million barrels a day in November, exceeding its collective target of 30 million for a sixth straight month, a Bloomberg survey of companies, producers and analysts showed. Financially strapped members such as Iran, Iraq and Venezuela may press for discussions before the group’s next scheduled meeting on June 5, predicted Amrita Sen, the chief oil market analyst at Energy Aspects.

 

Ecuador Budget

 

Ecuador, an OPEC member that relies on crude for about a third of its revenue, may cut next year’s budget by as much as $1.5 billion, the Finance Ministry said. It’s planning tax reforms to boost government revenues and may seek additional financing if crude prices don’t stabilize in 2015.

In the U.S., the Energy Information Administration reduced its price forecasts for next year while also downgrading its production outlook for a second month. WTI will average $62.75 a barrel, compared with a November projection of $77.75, its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook showed yesterday. Brent may trade at $68.08, down from an earlier estimate of $83.42, according to the Energy Department’s statistical arm.

While the price drop will start to slow production next year, output is still forecast at the highest level since 1972, EIA Administrator Adam Sieminski said in an e-mailed statement.

 

Shale Supply

 

The U.S. oil boom has been driven by a combination of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, which has unlocked supplies from shale formations including the Eagle Ford in Texas and the Bakken in North Dakota. Output advanced to 9.08 million barrels a day through Nov. 28, the fastest rate in weekly records that started in January 1983, EIA data showed.

Crude inventories in the country, the world’s biggest oil consumer, expanded by 4.4 million barrels last week, the industry-funded American Petroleum Institute reported yesterday, according to Anthony Headrick, an analyst at CHS Hedging. Government data today may show stockpiles shrank by 2.7 million, based on the median estimate in a separate Bloomberg survey of eight analysts.

 

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