By Alec Hogg
It takes me a while to fully process the concentration of knowledge injected during a WEF annual meeting in Davos. With a presentation (see below) on Thursday, however, I’ve been getting my thoughts organized. The WEF is a Forum of very smart people with widely divergent views. It reminds you that nobody has a monopoly on the truth, not even these worthies.Â
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On reflection, the obvious trend for me was the way ‘Tree people’ (stay at home, internally-focused localists) are running out of steam after a decade in the ascendancy. On the other hand, the ideas of their polar opposites, the ‘Boat People’ (well-travelled, broad-minded globalists) are gathering momentum.
This has massive implications, including here in SA.
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History may well tag Donald Trump’s 2016 election as the pinnacle for Tree-thinking. Vladimir Putin’s botched invasion of Ukraine looks like confirmation of its decline. As the inimitable Gideon Rachman of the FT writes below, western governments have been galvanized into a united front against Putin. Global businesses too. It’s now a war archaic Russian thinking simply cannot win.
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Another learning from those at the WEF meeting is how fragmentation caused by actions of Trump/Brexit/Putin and the Pandemic triggered Schumpeter’s famed ‘creative destruction’ that is ushering in a new world. It could take perhaps four to five years to fully manifest. But it’s happening. Believe it.
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Right now, nobody knows definitively how things are going to work out. So please treat anyone with all the answers with suspicion. Much better to strive for Second Level thinking – and be humble, listen carefully, question everything you think you know. For this is the new age where the emergence of unknown unknowns carry the greatest risks.Â
- PS: Because BNC#5 is just around the corner, I’m only doing a single face-to-face post-Davos presentation this year. It’s at Hermanus Golf Club at 9am this Thursday. Tickets are R200 and for a good cause. Call the GM Sharon Sleigh on 028 312 1954.
- PPS: As usual post Davos, changes will be made to the BizNews Share portfolio – as a Premium member you are entitled to a seat at the interactive webinar where they will be discussed. It’s next Tuesday (31st) at noon. Register here: https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/8226501347308280415
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