By Alec Hogg
Nassim Taleb’s first book, Fooled By Randomness, delves into the unexpected influence of luck on success.
He illustrated this idea with a hypothetical scenario of a coin-toss competition in a stadium filled with 100 000 people. After each round, those whose coins land on tails exit the arena, leaving only 100 competitors after ten rounds. These remaining contestants are “successful” due solely to the whims of chance – but often believe it to have been skill that gave them the edge.
The central focus of the book is the misconception of good fortune by lucky individuals. Many attribute their success to their own abilities, causing problems for them in the long run. Taleb refers to them as “lucky fools.” This disease disproportionately afflicts the wealthy of our society.
The topic hit close to home for me last week with the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. When BizNews’s offshore operation started, we considered SVB as a natural choice for a globalizing business like ours. However, had it not been for a veritable coin toss, we would have ended up in the same dire situation as current SVB clients. Although preparedness is crucial for success, luck can be more important.
More for you to read:
- BizNews Share Portfolio February update: Buying pause post BNC#5. Watch the video and see the full portfolio. Click here.
- Lutz (ex-Niemoller); Listen up Cyril – here’s the antidote to your engineered derangement. Click here.
- Must-read: Jay Naidoo puts his hard-earned reputation on the line by going in to bat for the Covid vaccine-injured. Click here.
