By Alec Hogg
After the disaster at Transaction Capital (price down 40%) and disappointment from Absa (drama in Ghana), I was tempted to opine this morning about these two members of the BizNews portfolio. Two reasons not to: Kokkie Kooyman’s insights will be on the site today. And the IFP story is too good to miss.
It started after a nudge from tribesman Bernard Tuffin who asked for an update on SA’s by-elections. It was long overdue. My spreadsheet was last updated four months ago. Since then, including a re-run of the entire Ditsabotla council, SA has held 43 by-elections taking the total post the November 2021 Elections to 108.
___STEADY_PAYWALL___An unmistakable trend is now evident. The electorate is restive, replacing 22 councillors, equating to precisely 20% of the by-elections. The ANC’s decline has been dramatic – it has lost 15 of these wards. Even where it has held onto seats, in most instances, this has come with double-digit declines in its vote share.
The big winner (see below), especially recently, is the IFP, which in the last four months has taken five councillors away from the ANC, all in KZN. In two-way contests, the EFF has won six seats, also all from the ANC and primarily rural. In the context of previously moribund SA politics, these are seismic shifts. Roll on 2024.
More for you to read:
Sean Peche: One year, one last chance for SA, all it could take is less than 1%. Click here.
Federal Reserve’s Path Is Murkier After Bank Blowup. The Fed has been rapidly raising interest rates to fight inflation. But making big moves could be trickier amid instability. Click here.
U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak Tries Free-Market Recipe to Fix Britain’s Woes. Former financier aims to deploy a turnaround strategy for the slow-growing U.K. economy. Click here.
