Davos Stars: Robert J Shiller – Nobel Laureate of Economics (2013)

Pundits, Professors and their Predictions: Robert J. ShillerBy Candice Paine

Robert J Shiller is a pre-eminent US economist who has been named on lists such as 100 Most Influential Economists in the World; Foreign Policy magazine’s list of top global thinkers and Bloomberg’s 50 most influential people in global finance. He is also a Nobel Laureate of Economics and has been awarded many other enviable prizes for his contributions to finance and economics. He is however probably best known for the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller home price index,

which he developed with fellow economist Karl Case as the US’s most authoritative source on housing price trends. Shiller has never been shy to challenge the status quo and has written papers as diverse as questioning the validity of the efficient-markets hypothesis (at the time) to claiming that house prices will always tend to the price of the land plus building costs plus normal economic profits (some caveats notwithstanding).

In 2000, Shiller wrote the New York Times Bestseller, Irrational Exuberance, in which he warned that the stock market was indeed in a bubble. In 2005 he released a revised edition which covered the real estate market. In September 2007, almost a year prior to the collapse of Lehman’s, Shiller wrote an article warning of a collapse in the US housing market.

Currently Shiller is Sterling Professor of Economics at Yale University and is a fellow at the Yale School of Management’s International Centre for Finance. He is also a research associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) as well as cofounder and chief economist of the investment management firm MacroMarkets LLC. When asked what his biggest contribution to society has been, Shiller answered simply, education.

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