SA the only major economy in the world in a technical recession – analyst

JOHANNESBURG — Of the major economies around the world, South Africa appears to have the worst performing economy of recent times. This is according to data spotted by trader and researcher Dwaine van Vuuren. Earlier this month, Stats SA announced that South Africa had entered a technical recession with two consecutive quarters of cnegative growth. Poor leadership, downgrades and a generally downbeat economy have worsened the situation. Other major economies such as Portugal and Spain have only recently come out of deep, multi-year recessions. Does the same fate await South Africa? – Gareth van Zyl

By Dwaine van Vuuren*

The chart below shows that South Africa is the only one of 41 major economies tracked by the OECD that is in technical recession in Q1:2017:

Iceland posted a negative GDP print in Q1:2017 and is the only other country with negative GDP.

The numbers next to the names show what percentage of world GDP the country contributes. So, SA is 0.6% of world GDP and the US is 25% of world GDP.

Note how deep the recessions that Brazil, Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain and more recently, Russia, had to emerge from.

Most of the high frequency, monthly leading economic data points to a business cycle that troughed in Q1:2017. However, we need to bear in mind that none of these (nor the GDP data) take into account the cabinet reshuffle, so upcoming economic data is going to be very closely watched.

  • Dwaine van Vuuren has a BSc(Hons) degree majoring in Computer Science and is a full-time trader, global investor and stock-market researcher. His passion for numbers and keen research & analytic ability has helped grow RecessionALERT and PowerStocks Research into companies used by hundreds of hedge funds, brokerage firms, financial advisers and private investors around the world. He now also heads up retail-side research at Sharenet. An enthusiastic educator, he will have you trading and investing with confidence & discipline.
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