Forget Hollywood: The long-shot SA sporting fairytale behind Lincoln City's historic promotion

While the world has been captivated by the celebrity-funded rise of Wrexham, a South African hedge fund manager has been quietly writing an even more impossible football fairytale. Clive Nates, leading a consortium of South African investors, has just engineered Lincoln City’s historic promotion to the English Championship—a tier the club hasn't reached in 65 years. Defying massive 1,000-to-1 odds and competing with a budget that ranked near the very bottom of League One, Nates applied "Moneyball" analytics and pure passion to outsmart the giants. Next season, this underdog squad will face off against massive English clubs, proving that South African grit and data-driven strategy can still conquer the beautiful game..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox at 5:30am weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa’s bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here..Watch here.Listen here.Edited transcript of the interview.Alec Hogg (00:08:11 - 00:40:21)A lot of South Africans. In fact, people all around the world will have heard of Wrexham Football Club. Not surprisingly, because a film star called Ryan Reynolds and a famous US TV series actor, Rob McElhenney were the owners. They did a deal with Disney and the whole progress from non-league football to the Championship, which is to within an ace of getting into the most competitive league of football in the world has been documented.00:40:21 - 01:07:22So Wrexham everyone knows about it. But a South African driven story with a, a club called Lincoln City is just as impressive. I'm not sure if it's a little quicker. It may well have gone quicker than those two Hollywood superstars, but the man behind it is none other than Club Knights. And, it's such a pleasure to be talking to him again.01:08:00 - 01:36:01He's in the UK. He's about to head home after a night to remember. Yesterday, Lincoln City confirmed it will be heading to the Championship next season. It's so far ahead at the top of League One. Can't be caught. At least for the second one. First or second. And that means automatic promotion club. Yeah, I don't know. Have you still got a bit of a hangover about what happened yesterday?Clive Nates 01:36:01 - 01:58:22Yeah, it just seems quite unbelievable. I mean, it's probably been expected for a few weeks. The bookies odds of being us, at around 1000 to 1 for us to to get promoted, but, just to get it finally across the line with five games to go and. Yeah, you wake up in the morning and you just think, wow, have we actually done this?Alec Hogg 01:59:00 - 02:03:13Are you in Lincoln now? I'll see you in a hotel room. Clearly. Flying home today?Clive Nates 02:03:17 - 02:25:04Yeah. Now I'm in London. I was in Lincoln. I actually flew over just for the long Easter weekend. There were two games we had won on Good Friday at home against Wimbledon. So I was over in Lincoln for two nights. And then we played Redding yesterday, which is pretty close to London. So I've been down in London for two nights.02:25:06 - 02:32:00And yeah, hoping with one of those games we would get across the line and we did sites like the trip very worthwhile.Alec Hogg 02:32:01 - 02:52:19Just explain to those people who don't know how important it is for you to move up to the next level, because most people in the world have heard about the English Premier League. But just below that is the championship. And that is just it's highly competitive as well.02:52:19 - 03:09:12And you actually got involved with Lincoln City when it was a long, long way down. And I'm going to ask you to repeat that story for us. But before we go there, how important is it to not get into that? The second highest league in England?Clive Nates 03:09:14 - 03:37:11Well, look, it's the first time Lincoln City has been in the second tier of English football for 65 years. So you've had many Lincoln City fans just hoping that one day they might see their club back at that, that level. I mean, there's a lot more money that the club won't get, both from the EFL and what the Premier League distributes down to the EFL in the Championship versus what we get in League One.03:37:13 - 04:08:20But the other side of that is player costs absolutely goes through the roof. So you know the amount of losses in the Championship at the moment I think collectively is somewhere around 400 million pounds. But fortunately, February, an American who was previously involved with the San Diego Padres baseball team has basically taken operational financial control.04:08:22 - 04:19:03Now co vice chairman. And at least the funding responsibility now falls on somebody who can pay for it in US dollars, not South African rands.Alec Hogg 04:19:05 - 04:38:00Tell us about this guy, Ron Fowler. How did you meet him and and why bring him in now, given that you've had such a long journey, almost a decade in working with Lincoln, getting them from. Well, no way, to the to the cusp of becoming, a really big story.Clive Nates 04:38:04 - 05:02:15Yeah. Look, right from the beginning, you know, I knew I didn't have the financial ability, to fund the losses that are necessary to get a club to, to progress. You know, even with us only having a 17th, 18th place budget in League One, we still making around 3 million pound losses, for the previous year and for the current year.05:02:17 - 05:28:14So somewhere around that as well. So you need significant funding and it's always been a case of looking for people that, you know, wanted to invest, in English football. And that was Shaun Maloney. Can actually Mandela. The two came in originally with me and they brought other friends in at various times. And it was actually Ashley that introduced me to an intermediary, Rafael Geller.05:28:16 - 06:01:16He knew that we were looking for further funding. He put me in touch with Landon Donovan. It's probably gratis. Us. Football player. And he introduced me to a friend of his, Harvey Jabara, who also has or still has a minority stake in the San Diego Padres. And, he actually, you know, I came in now run about 4 or 5 years ago, the biggest shareholder, up until Ron has recently surpassed him.06:01:18 - 06:32:12And he obviously knew Ron from the San Diego Padres. And Ron came in as a minority shareholder, about two years ago. And then we went through a recent process of kind of look for a significant funder and ultimately, Ron decided he had seen enough with Lincoln City and was prepared to take, you know, financial operational control, take over their responsibility for funding the club, for the immediate future.06:32:14 - 06:37:22And we'll certainly need that in the Championship if we want to try and stay in that league.Alec Hogg 06:38:03 - 06:49:03What exactly does it mean for you, though, given that, you and Sean Melnick and Ashley Middler, it's the the journey that you've walked in handing over to somebody else.Clive Nates 06:50:08 - 07:16:08I think it's a great relief, you know, to know that the funding of the club is secure. I mean, it's it's been something that I've been involved in almost throughout the time I've been involved with Lincoln City trying to find new funding. I think I've even been on your show some years ago. When we try to put something together that might get a number of South Africans, involved in the club.07:16:08 - 07:43:19And yeah, it's just a huge responsibility to to get off my shoulders and, you know, there comes a time when you know somebody else who is maybe better placed to take the club forward. I mean, I'll still have an involvement. Obviously not to the extent I had previously, but I'll still be able to enjoy going over and, supporting, you know, the club.07:43:21 - 07:50:07It's just been an absolutely unbelievable journey. Something I don't regret at all.Alec Hogg 07:50:09 - 08:12:14Well, I had a great privilege to be there when you won promotion from League Two to League One. At the ground with you, with Ashley and I could see firsthand how much, how how grateful the people of Lincoln were to the fact that you got involved, almost like a bit of a moneyball kind of story where you you looked at things differently.08:12:14 - 08:42:09You knew you didn't have the big budgets, but you had a passion for English football and a way to use your hedge fund expertise and the numbers, understanding the numbers and applying that to building this dream that has, not just been a dream for yourselves, but a dream for the whole city of Lincoln. I wondered, when I saw the the Wrexham story, whether you related to that, because it it does.08:42:09 - 08:48:22Although they seem to be better funded, clearly. Movie stars. It does appear to have some parallels.Clive Nates 08:49:00 - 09:11:15Well, okay. The parallel has been that I also came from the National League, which is the fifth tier of English football, that actually been there for a lot longer than us. I think something like 14, 15 years in National League. Before Rob and Ron took over, we were there for six years before we got promoted, and they obviously got to the Championship last season.09:11:15 - 09:32:17But yeah, the sort of funding that they've put into the club, as not only funding that I've put in, I mean through, you know, their fame, the amount of income that they've generated for the club. I mean, just as a comparison, when they got promoted out of League One last season, I shot a turnover of 33 million.09:32:19 - 09:58:00Our turnover last year was below 9 million. I mean, as I've said, we'll make a loss of around about 3 million. Their loss last year was 15 million. So, you know, from that point of view, you know, it's not really comparable. They have the second biggest budget in League One. You know we've had to do it through punching massively above our weight.Alec Hogg 09:58:02 - 10:12:19Tell us about the manager. Because when I visited with you you had the brothers who were doing great stuff. But they've moved. Yeah, they've moved on since then. Now you've got a guy called Marcus Kabbalah. How did you find him?10:12:19 - 10:16:08And has he been a big part of this journey?Clive Nates 10:16:10 - 10:53:07Yeah. He's been a massive part. So you know again as part of what has been introduced to the club in recent years has been that we look to scout managers before we need one. So there's always people that we've identified that we think are worth bringing in for further interviews. I mean, it's an ongoing process of sporting directors continually meeting potential managers that we might want in the future, seeing if, you know, they would be interested in us and getting a view of them.10:53:09 - 11:35:21But obviously it's only when you part company with a manager that you start going through the actual process of looking for the new manager, and Michael was one of those we had identified, and it was probably 5 or 6, candidates that we interviewed. And yeah, Michael really, really impressed us. Obviously did a lot of work behind the scenes, not just, you know, the interview process, getting recommendations about him, looking at how he played, he was then at Leeds United under 21, that actually being caretaker manager of the Leeds United first team for three games after they fired a manager.11:35:22 - 12:00:05And, yeah, we you know, we brought him in. It was his first other then at Leeds United for those three games his first professional job. And I think when you're bringing in a rookie manager, you've got to have patience. And it's something that many clubs just don't have. It wasn't like you got we went on this incredible run right from the beginning.12:00:07 - 12:25:22Took a little bit of time. We also had a lot of injuries. But, you know, we supported him, giving him all the backing. He's got a wonderful team of assistant, head coaches, a backroom staff, a recruitment. The season has just been exceptional. We've got the blend between experience and youth absolutely, perfectly. And that's all helped him.12:25:22 - 12:39:11But, you know, no doubt for somebody to have got us on a 24 game unbeaten run, which is a record for Lincoln City with 19 wins, you know, he's far surpassed our expectations.12:39:13 - 12:52:05It's been an extraordinary season and you are so far ahead in League One that they are people from all over the football world watching and having a look and saying, now, how did you get this?Alec Hogg 12:52:05 - 13:28:14Right where did it come from? And clearly the very first focus will be on the managerial staff and then on the players. Now there is, the loss. Well, you've already had one guy who's been picked up by Glasgow Rangers. One of the backroom staff. You said peace coach, is this not the biggest risk you face right now that there are others with deep pockets who are looking at this club that has done so incredibly well and are saying, oh, let's go and pick up those, those talented people who've been uncovered.Clive Nates 13:28:19 - 14:01:23Yeah. You know, it's it's always the rest. Just like when we have those three incredible years under Daniel Nicky Cowley, a long time Huddersfield Town they were in the Championship. They took them from us. But that's the way it is. You try and keep them and you play them as best as we can. But again, like for Scott Fry, who you're referred to, you know, he was heading, our goalkeeping coach and heading up our set pieces, which, you know, were exceptional last season.14:01:23 - 14:20:10We got the most set piece goals than any other club in English football. And, yes, there were a couple of clubs before that that came in for him and we sort of managed to keep him with us. But then when you know, Glasgow Rangers come along, you know, you just can't compete with that. So yeah, it's it's always a risk.14:20:10 - 14:45:05But that is, that is football, you know, where you are in the pecking order and we'll probably lose some some of our staff because of that's potentially some of our players. We lost four of our key players. At the end of last season. But you replace them and, you know, we've done even better without those four key players that we lost.Alec Hogg 14:45:07 - 14:53:08With your nursery. Lincoln's kind of up in the north of England. Not in a or, I suppose the middle North.14:53:10 - 15:04:02It's not a, a natural place to have lots of kids coming along and graduating, as you would in, in cities. So where do you find the talentClive Nates 15:04:04 - 15:32:01Look, yeah, I mean, those that have come through and been a success and I cademy, in recent years haven't necessarily been local boys. You know, one of the big successes, we recruited a 16 year old from Republic of Ireland. That's something that we can't do anymore post, Brexit. Two of the others that have come through were released by Derby County.15:32:02 - 15:56:06One was Jovan Makana, who got signed by Norwich City. One of those key players that we lost last year. And he was our first 1 million pound, player sale. So that was quite an achievement that we were happy to, to break that barrier. Yeah. It's it's not easy. Because as I said, it's not a lot of local boys.15:56:08 - 16:21:18But, you know, it's a lot more beyond just trying to bring people through the academy. It's trying to find young players. That might be at other clubs that we believe have the potential, brought through a number of players from Ireland as well. One of those is Jack Moylan, who scored our winner yesterday against Reading, you know, brought in for a small fee because we saw the potential.16:21:18 - 16:25:06And he's been an absolute revelation this season.Alec Hogg 16:25:08 - 16:47:06What happens now? Are you still going to be competitive through the processes that you've used, or do you now have to find big money to be able to compete with, some of those huge clubs that are in the Championship and indeed with the ambitions presumably, would be to get into the Premiership at some point.Clive Nates 16:47:10 - 17:10:07Well, maybe looking at getting into the Premier League is. Yeah. But in the distant future, I think the first thing will be to see if we can survive. I mean, just to give you an example of the task that's ahead of us, I mean, we've got a player budget just in excess of 5 million pounds, as I said, that's, you know, run about 17th.17:10:08 - 17:34:04And the teams at Luton Town who were in the Premier League just two seasons ago, still receiving parachute payments. Bolton Wanderers, Huddersfield Town, which have played by just 2 or 3 times higher than that now when you get into the championship, you get about 11 million pounds from the EFL in the Premier League, compared to about 2.5 million that we get at the moment.17:34:06 - 18:03:07So that's a big kicker. But the average, player budget in the Championship for this season, excluding the parachute payment clubs, is 23 million pounds. That's the average. So that's that is the challenge. But as I said and Ron Fowler, we've got somebody who has the ability certainly to fund us to an extent that we've never been able to be funded in the past.18:03:08 - 18:20:07Without a doubt, even with his funding, we will still have probably a bottom four budget. And if it's just up to us to try and punch above our weight to get in there and, see if we can do it. Sorry. See if we can do that.Alec Hogg 18:20:09 - 18:35:10It is a South African story, a given where you've the involvement that you've had, have many South Africans kind of clicked to this, realise that, hey, we got our own Wrexham who are busy doing crazy things in the UK.Clive Nates 18:35:12 - 19:00:04I don't know about broader South Africans, but obviously, you know, there are a lot of South Africans involved as investors in the club in addition to Sean. But actually there's Alan Optica in Sweden and, you know, a few others that have come in and, you know, they've all got friends and family and people that we speak to.19:00:04 - 19:14:17So there are a lot of people in the background that keep an eye on Lincoln City. No, I don't think it's, let's say, become mainstream in South African football circles that there is a South African story in English football.19:14:19 - 19:20:22Well, where I'm going to hear is that we do have a lot of talent in our country, as you well know.19:21:00 - 19:55:18And that talent doesn't always get recognised. It's we very underrepresented. If you look at the at the English game, given the, the talent that does exist in South Africa is there anything there that now that you're going to be in the Championship, now you're in the big leagues, now you get televised worldwide. That could open a door, perhaps for South African talent and indeed give you that, that additional, stream that would come in that you did receive in the past, as you've told us about from Ireland.19:55:21 - 20:25:05Yeah. Look, there are specific rules post-Brexit as to the amount of players that EFL teams can, you know, have in their squad in league One, we were limited to two foreign players. And we've got one Swede and one Ukrainian that we, we brought in. It's a bit easier in the championship with that number goes up from 2 to 4 in terms of this SCC scheme.20:25:07 - 20:47:09And then there's also the GBE scheme where if a player plays in a certain bigger league, then they can also qualify, to play in the championship. So there is certainly more room to to look at foreign players. But again, they have to be at a certain level to be able to get a work permit, to play in the UK.Alec Hogg 20:47:11 - 20:55:04But just say Bafana Bafana are given a outside chance of performing very well at the World Cup.20:55:07 - 21:29:13Let's just say that of that squad, they are half a half a dozen of them who don't get picked up by anybody else, would they? Given that they would be national players, be in your in your, crosshairs to look at as, because surely if you're at if you're a South African player, earning rands and you could earn pounds like the rugby guys did, in for so many years, and now you're playing on a big stage.21:29:15 - 21:47:21There might be some appeal there, even if it if it isn't a full time or a long term or a forever, relationship, it could indeed be a way of showing your talent to the rest of, of the this extraordinarily wealthy, sector of of sport.Clive Nates 21:48:02 - 22:17:21Yeah. Look, I mean, we do have analysts in our recruitment department looking at various leagues across the world, and obviously they've got two leagues that we believe are suitable for players to transition from their current leagues into whatever league we playing in in England. Some players from certain leagues transition a lot better than others. And the South African League has been one that, you know, has been looked at.22:17:21 - 22:42:22We did identify one player, but it was a bit beyond our capability and is actually part of the Portsmouth squad which is currently in the Championship. So I think it's always a possibility. But again, you know, our recruitment team is scouring all the countries around the world where we think there might be players that, might fit into our squad.Alec Hogg 22:43:00 - 22:45:05so what's next for club nets?22:45:07 - 23:07:19Hedge fund manager, very successful in that line of work. Then, following your passion on Lincoln City, we've spent a bit of time together and you certainly, have have shared that passion to the degree that I'm not the only one whose number two club is Lincoln, the other club that you watch on YouTube. Hopefully next year we can watch some live games.23:07:21 - 23:10:02What's next for you?Clive Nates 23:10:04 - 23:36:13I think I'm going to continue to be involved, you know, still in Lincoln. Maybe not quite to the extent that I have been in the past, but, you know, still working on player contracts, transfers, that sort of thing. Are still very much in touch with our CEO and sporting director, and I'm hoping for a bit of time to also progress the book.23:36:15 - 23:50:00And I'm writing about my time with Lincoln City. So that's still very much in its early stages, but, hopefully there's a little bit more time to, to, to write that story as well.Alec Hogg 23:50:02 - 23:50:11I hope23:50:11 - 24:02:22that you do find time to invest in that book, because the sporting the sporting stories and it's an incredible story. Yours. I'm not sure that everybody still kind of gets it where you came from.24:02:22 - 24:12:16Just give us a little bit of colour of how you started the first game that you watched Lincoln playing after you'd made your investment.Clive Nates 24:12:18 - 24:43:13Well, it would, when I decided to, approach Lincoln. I'll send an email off to the club just asking to be put in touch with the then chairman, and, said I was interested in getting involved. I mean, they were in financial difficulties, at the time, and they invited me to come over. So the first game I saw was A20 home defeat to a club called welling.24:43:15 - 25:09:05And welling is now, I think, maybe a league or two below that. They were in the bottom four at the time, and then I went to see a no no draw and another team and you know that somewhere in non-league at the moment and cold March evening, there were probably, you know, 1500 people in the ground. But it didn't it didn't bother me.25:09:07 - 25:32:00You know, I just wanted to have some involvement in English football. I've just been a fanatical football fan since a young kid. And really, I didn't think, you know, studying in South Africa. I didn't believe that I would be able to walk in and do very much. I just wanted the involvement of, you know, just for fun.25:32:02 - 25:49:21But I think, you know, saw straight away that there were things that could be changed and improved and, yeah, together with a lot of other people that have contributed massively to the story, we've been able to take Lincoln City a year on this amazing ride.Alec Hogg 25:49:23 - 26:22:20And is the part of the Moneyball story here as well. Many would recall, the Brad Pitt movie or indeed, the David, Lewis book about Moneyball, about how, the the thing was the coach, then found its players who may not have been the most popular and according to the narrative, but whose numbers were excellent and so a bit of statistical, investigation.26:22:20 - 26:25:20Did you do any of that?26:25:22 - 26:34:20Sorry. Michael Lewis, not David Lewis. My apologies. Yeah, his name is Michael Lewis. David Brooks. Yeah.Clive Nates 26:34:22 - 26:52:20Yeah, we've used a lot of that, especially as we've progressed more. I wasn't there at the beginning because obviously that costs money. The data that you need for that and the people that you need for that, but yeah, it's it's a massive part. But baseball is also very different from football.26:52:22 - 27:19:21So there's a lot more that you need to do. That's a, that's a lot more a team game than an individual game, which I think baseball is. So there's a lot more you have to do once you've identified players on the back of the data. But especially, you know, as we're looking across the world now for players, the data is the first way that you identify those players.27:19:21 - 27:42:01And then that's a case of looking at the videos and then going to see the player, in real life, actually playing a game because you can't sign players and know just stuff data or just all videos because there's just so much more to what a player does in a game. And then what you can see, from the data or from just watching a video.27:42:03 - 28:03:19reading the reports, and particularly one that was in on, on the Sky news, website, say that roughly 10% of the Lincoln population, people who live, they come to the games every weekend. What's the the equivalent of 10% of the population of the of the city? I'm sure quite a few people come from outside.28:03:21 - 28:15:05I've seen it myself, but but give us, a feeling, if you would, of how the people of Lincoln have taken to the club and indeed to you.Clive Nates 28:15:07 - 28:39:10Yes. I mean, as you've said, a lot of people come from outside the city as well. Remember, Lincoln is a big university city, so probably around about 15% of the population. All students studying at, at the University of Lincoln, so many of them would probably be supporting another club and wouldn't be coming on a regular basis to watch Lincoln City.28:39:10 - 29:22:05But yeah, we have people traveling, season ticket holders from as far away as Devon or Scotland. You know, people that have moved away from Lincoln to some point in their life. And yeah, it's it's been amazing to see the appreciation from people in the city. Yeah. It's, it's quite extraordinary. And, you know, being a club that really battled for, for such a long period and to have this success, and I think it's what got me even more encouraged to put more money into the club.29:22:05 - 29:47:05At the beginning, we had crowds that averaged around about 2500 when I got involved. And even in that first season that moved up to around about 6000 then. Now we're averaging and a north of 9000 and, yeah, the way the fans have also stuck with us, even after the year of the Cowley brothers, where we have those three trophies in three years.29:47:05 - 30:08:04And then obviously when we got promoted to league One, it was a lot tougher. But most of those that came on board, in those years under Danny and Nicky and those that returned, I mean, have stuck with us. And then it's just brilliant to see them being rewarded with, that dream of getting into the second tier.Alec Hogg 30:08:06 - 30:24:03Now, you've done so well in the third tier, the season when you approach next season, I suppose any promoted club, the immediate thing would be let's just survive. Let's just make sure that we don't go down in the next, in the next season.30:24:04 - 30:29:10Are you approaching or is the club approaching next year differently?Clive Nates 30:29:12 - 31:05:13I think the way we've played, which has enabled us to punch massively above our weight, that's why of playing is largely to continue. There's no doubt we'll have to strengthen the squad, with our players that are. It's a more championship level players. And yeah, the you know, the first objective will be, without a doubt, to try and survive, but we'll also be trying at the same time to see if we can do better than that.31:05:15 - 31:31:05But, you know, as I've mentioned, the huge clubs in League One, there's even bigger clubs that we're going to be playing against in the Championship. And, you know, you might have seen a lot of fans having, a laugh at us potentially playing Tottenham Hotspur next season. You know, that might not be Spurs, but if not Spurs it would be West Ham or Nottingham Forest.31:31:07 - 31:48:23You know, massive clubs for Little Link and City to to be playing next season. So not easy but we've had amazing achievement this the season and we'll go again next season and try and do the best we can.31:49:01 - 31:56:16be quite interesting to see you playing Wrexham as well. And how the documentary will look at that one. If they don't get promoted, I guess31:56:18 - 32:00:05yes they still, you know, in with a chance of getting into the playoffs.Alec Hogg 32:00:11 - 32:05:01What an interesting story. And thanks again club for travel home safely.32:05:03 - 32:43:19Look forward to seeing you back home soon. And the the story of Lincoln City hopefully will now start resonating more among South Africans because it truly has a very deep South African connection. Tonight's the joint vice chairman, is that correct? Your new title? At Lincoln City.Clive NatesCo. Vice chairman Alec HoggCo. Vice chairman, former chairman of Lincoln City. Then by all acknowledgment or acknowledge by all the men behind the rejuvenation of a club that was heading full well for the end.32:43:19 - 33:04:09I guess this is heading further and further down, but now it's going to be playing in the Championship, a huge area, and we'll be watching it on our on Dstv's next year. Fascinating stuff. Clive is, is a South African, hedge fund manager who has a passion for football. And I'm Alec Hogg from BizNews.com.

Forget Hollywood: The long-shot SA sporting fairytale behind Lincoln City's historic promotion

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