By Douglas Parker*
The raw information for this report is sourced from the Coronavirus Tracker on Worldometer. I source my data at 12pm each day, NZ time. The data all relates to midnight the previous day (00.00 GMT)
- Results today show that the total worldwide case numbers are now: +- 7,189,000
- The percentage of people who are likely still ill from the virus totals: 45.2%
- The percentage of people who have recovered from the infection is: 49.1%
- And the total percentage of people who have died from the virus is: 5.7%
- The percentage of Active cases that are considered serious/critical: 1.7%
Countries experiencing the heaviest burden in new cases of the virus over the past 24 hours are:
Top Countries 8th June
- Brazil: 18,925
- USA: 18,663
- Russia: 8,985
- India: 8,442
- Pakistan: 4,728
- TOTAL: 59,743 which is 56% of the world total
Trends in New cases worldwide
Total global new cases today were: +- 106,000 taking the 7 day average to around 123,000
A decrease in new cases today, with reduced numbers across the board. In Europe figures were slightly lower, with the UK dropping to 1,205.
In the Southern Hemisphere sub group, Australia recorded 5 new cases, South Africa slightly up to 2,594 and up to 11th in world rank order. New Zealand recorded its sixteenth 0 in a row, and has no cases of Covid-19 in the country.
Today the focus is again trends in Sweden and South Africa, and a look at infection and death rates by continent and most affected countries.
Four successive days of reduced new cases in South Africa after a peak on 5th June.
The daily growth in total infections continues to average around 5%-6%.
The chart below shows actual results comparing well so far with forecasts in our simple analog model.
Comparing South Africa’s trend with Columbia, which has similar population numbers, shows that South Africa’s growth accelerated somewhat faster during the past 3 weeks.
Sixteenth zero day in New Zealand, and the country moves to level 1 last night. Numbers in Australia dropped to 5 the last two days.
Low numbers in the European countries today, all showing favourable trends.
Total world cases topped 7 million yesterday. Recovered’s now outnumber Active cases.
North America’s share of total cases increased further.
Africa again showed the highest growth in new cases today.
Asia had the highest share of new cases today.
New Zealand and Australia have the highest proportion of recovered patients. New Zealand has no patients with Covid-19.
India has the highest number of serious/critical patients in Asia at some 60% of that continent. Next highest is Iran with 18%.
The death rate in Europe and North America far exceeds the experience elsewhere in the world. The vast differences between countries is not fully understood.
After dropping to almost zero, Israel’s infection rate is climbing, while in Sweden the daily infection rate has been fairly constant, but kicked up strongly the past week.
While significantly higher than Israel, Sweden’s death rate is not as high as some other European countries.
This chart shows the top 28 countries with populations in excess of 5 million, with the highest Covid-19 infection rates per million Population. Also plotted are the number of deaths per million population.
The graph below shows the number of cases at 28th May and the distribution of deaths by age at 8th June in South Africa.
The graph following shows the distribution of cases in South Africa by province at 7th June. Please note the Log scale.
- Douglas Parker is the Managing Director of Douglas Parker Associates. There is more info on his website: http://www.douglasparker.co.za/.
