Current estimates of Covid-19 deaths “deeply flawed” – The Wall Street Journal

It was coronavirus projections estimating that South Africa could have between 87,900 and 351,000 deaths if the country did not take drastic measures to contain Covid-19 that spurred President Cyril Ramaphosa into action with the 21-day lockdown to enforce social exclusion. These are scary statistics, especially in a country where millions of people have compromised immune systems due to HIV/Aids and TB. Two professors in medicine from the University of Stanford Eran Bendavid and Jay Bhattacharya believe that the World Health Organisation's 2-4% fatality rate of Covid-19 is "deeply flawed" and that current estimates may be too high. Their argument is based on the fact that it is difficult to determine the number of people who are infected because of "selection bias in testing". To get a better steer of the hidden cases who are infected by the coronavirus, scientists from King's College and Guy's and St Thomas hospital in London are now rolling out Covid-19 symptom trackers where Brits self-report their symptoms to get a steer of the hidden cases – "the iceberg that countries sail into", which would get policy makers better data to work with. They also believe a "universal quarantine may not be worth the costs it imposes on the economy." Isolating the vulnerable may be a better option. – Linda van Tilburg

Is the coronavirus as deadly as they say?

By Eran Bendavid and Jay Bhattacharya

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