When I was running the world page at IOL in 2016, shortly before choosing to take a retrenchment package, I subbed any number of stories predicting the winner of the US election, and most people thought Hillary Clinton would prevail. The only report I remember reading that predicted the eventual Trump victory came from the Independent in London, and quoted English bookmakers as saying the Donald stood a good chance of winning, based on their interpretation of betting patterns. Ever since, I have read stories about US election polls with some scepticism, and have turned instead to the bookies for a dose of reality. The Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll examined in this article suggests that the 2020 result is still too close to call. A Google search for bookmakers’ predictions suggests that Trump will beat Biden. But we still have nominating conventions to get through, and anything could happen. – Renee Moodie
Biden leads Trump, 50% to 41%, in poll ahead of party conventions
By John McCormick
President Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden start their nominating conventions this month with Mr Trump struggling to reach a level of job approval that would make re-election more likely and his challenger drawing soft support that could present turnout challenges, the latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll shows.
___STEADY_PAYWALL___
Less than three months before November’s election, 50% of registered voters nationally say they would vote for Mr Biden if the election were held now, while 41% back Mr Trump. That is essentially unchanged from Mr Biden’s 11-point lead a month ago and is similar to his advantage much of this year.
Mr Biden, however, is failing to generate widespread enthusiasm, the poll finds. For the past year he has been viewed more negatively than positively among the broader electorate — as has been the president — although Mr Biden’s positive rating increased 5 percentage points between July and August to reach 39%.
“This poll is a warning for Democrats and the Biden team that there is still a lot of work to be done,” said Peter Hart, a Democratic pollster who worked on the survey with Bill McInturff, a Republican, and Jeff Horwitt, a Democrat.
Virtual conventions
In another sign of potential softness in the Democrats’ support, 58% of those who back Mr Biden say their vote is more in opposition to Mr Trump than in favor of their chosen candidate. By contrast, those planning to cast a ballot for Mr Trump are more enthusiastic about their choice, with almost three-quarters saying their vote is more for him than against Mr Biden.
“In one respect, Biden’s vote looks like Trump’s did in 2016: more a vote against their opponent than support for them,” Mr Horwitt said.
National conventions, such as the one the Democrats will convene online Monday, are designed to boost the nominee’s favorability by showcasing the candidate’s biography and offering a supporting cast of endorsers.
But it remains unclear what viewership will be like without an in-person gathering. Republicans plan to hold a mostly virtual convention the following week.
Read also: SLR: Amid Covid-19 madness, Trump manoeuvres into place for re-election
The Democratic convention is an opportunity for the party to shape perceptions of Sen. Kamala Harris of California, who was named last week as Mr Biden’s running mate.
Ms. Harris was viewed positively by 39% of voters in the survey and negatively by 35%, with 14% saying they didn’t yet have an opinion. She is more popular among women (45%) and voters of color (45%) than among men (32%) and white voters (36%).
‘It has to improve’
Mr Biden’s 9-point advantage in the poll matches the lead Hillary Clinton enjoyed over Mr Trump four years ago. Mr Trump, however, is now an incumbent and is confronting the economic fallout from the global coronavirus pandemic.
The president’s job approval rating is 44%, up 2 points from July, with 53% disapproving of his performance in office.
“That seems to me to be short of where he would need to be to win a re-election,” Mr McInturff said. “It has to improve.”
White House occupants in recent history with ratings near 50% or higher have generally won re-election, while those much below that threshold have lost. At the same time, Mr Trump won an Electoral College majority in 2016 with only 46% of the popular vote.
While Mr Trump scores 10 percentage points higher than Mr Biden on which candidate would best handle the economy—the top issue among those tested—he falls short on perceptions of how he is dealing with the nation’s fight against the coronavirus.
A majority of 58% in the survey disapprove of his pandemic management. Some 53% say he didn’t take the threat seriously enough early on and still isn’t handling it well, up from 45% in April.
Six in 10 say the nation’s response to the virus outbreak has been unsuccessful. As summer makes a transition to fall, 49% of parents say they are comfortable with their children going back to in-person school, with an equal share saying they are uncomfortable.
More than 169,000 people in the U.S. have died as a result of the virus, and more than 5.3 million have been infected, data compiled by Johns Hopkins University show.
The unemployment rate was 10.2% in July, largely because of the pandemic. If the rate stays at or above that level in the coming months, it would mark just the fourth time since the start of the Great Depression that the nation has faced double-digit joblessness during the final four months of a presidential campaign.
Trump is narrowly winning the male vote
More than three-quarters of poll participants rate the economy as fair or poor, up from 68% in June and from 44% in December, before the pandemic struck. Almost half of Republicans think the economy is excellent or good, while just 4% of Democrats say that.
Mask wearing is on the rise, the poll found, with 79% saying they always wear one when around people outside their home, up from 74% in July and 63% in June.
Among various demographic groups, Mr Trump is narrowly winning the male vote, while Mr Biden holds a 21-point edge among women. Mr Trump’s slight advantage among men may be one reason Mr Biden’s campaign has placed, according to data from ad-tracking firm Kantar/CMAG, a $25 million advertising buy for National Football League games starting in September and running until the election.
Read also: Meet Kamala Harris, Joe Biden’s running mate against Donald Trump – Wall Street Journal
The former vice president holds advantages of 80 points among Black voters, 26 points among Hispanic voters and 7 points among those 65 or older, while Mr Trump has a lead of 51 points among white, evangelical voters and 24 points among white voters without a four-year college degree.
In addition to being viewed as better at handling the economy, Mr Trump receives slightly higher marks on dealing with crime. The former vice president is viewed as stronger on foreign policy, immigration, coronavirus management, health care, race relations and national unity. The two are essentially tied on a question about who has the “mental and physical health to be president.”
Interest in the election is running strong, with 79% of voters rating themselves at the highest levels of interest. That is 7 points higher than the survey recorded in October 2016, the month before Mr Trump’s election.
Democrats and Republicans are nearly equally interested, with 83% and 85%, respectively, showing high interest, while 55% of independent voters rate themselves as highly engaged.
A leading endorser of Mr Biden, former President Obama, is viewed positively by 54% of voters overall.
The poll shows a slight advantage for Democrats over Republicans, 47% to 42%, when voters are asked their preference for which party should control the next Congress.
“In one respect, Biden’s vote looks like Trump’s did in 2016: more a vote against their opponent than support for them.”
One-party control of Washington, however, isn’t appealing to many voters. Half say Republican control of the House, Senate and White House would be a bad development, while a plurality of 44% say the same of complete Democratic control.
The Journal/NBC News poll, conducted Aug. 9-12, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.27 percentage points for the full sample of 900 registered voters.
Write to John McCormick at [email protected]
