Alec Hogg: Gradually, then suddenly for SA politics

Among Ernest Hemingway's best books is The Sun Also Rises, written in 1926 about the US/UK's post World War One disillusioned Lost Generation. In it, Bill asks Mike how he went bankrupt.."Two ways," comes the response, "Gradually, then suddenly.".That line applies to many other areas of life. Divorces don't just happen. Ditto stress-related dread diseases. But we are still capable of being greatly shocked by the "suddenly" because we fail to recognise the signs that, with hindsight, were so obvious during "gradually"..___STEADY_PAYWALL___.We are just five weeks away from what is very likely to be a watershed election. On November 1, South Africans will elect their local representatives. The way things are stacking up, an almost unbelievable "suddenly" moment is looming..Consider the facts..For months already, Herman Mashaba has been telling us that were an election held today, his ActionSA would win over half the wards in Soweto. Official pollsters say he's dreaming, that Action SA will poll just over 1% of the vote. Yet last weekend the ANC's great electoral hope Cyril Ramaphosa was booed and chased away from a Sowetan registration station..The once impregnable ANC's preparation for the local elections has been shambolic. Even previously lifelong supporters wonder whether it will ever be capable of carving out the culture of corruption laid to bare in the Zondo Commission and, shamefully, during the pandemic..By contrast, Mashaba has been working flat out for months. As has a rejuvenated Mmusi Maimane who has aligned with ground level organisations to help them nominate candidates in a hefty 350 wards..While a well funded Julius Malema keeps playing to the base instincts of resentment, envy and hate, the official opposition is increasingly emerging as a viable alternative. The templates for where it already governs are now well established. Voters in ANC-run municipalities everywhere look enviously at the clean audits, pothole free, well maintained Democratic Alliance-run municipalities..Perhaps the biggest factor in the DA's favour is its drama-free run-up. It lost 1.5 percentage points in May 2019's General Election, because of internal bickering and leadership issues. So it was unable to take advantage of a sliding ANC which lost 5 percentage points to 57.5% of the national vote..This time around, with Helen Zille as the Federal chair and the courageous workaholic John Steenhuisen waving the flag, there's cohesion at the top. Voters like that as much as they hate being duped by a ruling party whose only consistency is an ability to break promises that, in future, it will behave..Suddenly awaits..More for you to read today:.– Fed tees up taper and signals rate rises possible next year– Netflix to buy Roald Dahl catalog, adding 'Charlie and the Chocolate Factory' to its stable– Pfizer study of Covid-19 vaccine in pregnant women delayed by slow enrollment.PS I will be away next week Monday and Tuesday so my colleague Stuart Lowman will send the morning newsletter with the must read stories of the day. I'll be back on Wednesday to host the monthly Global Portfolio webinar. As a Premium member all you need to do is register here. See you then..NB FOR YOUR WALL STREET JOURNAL ACCESS….As a Premium subscriber you are entitled to full membership of wsj.com (normal price $29 a month). Be sure to action your access through the Premium link on the BizNews website. Because of The Wall Street Journal's credential requirements, be sure to create a password which has at least 8 characters and includes at least one letter and one number – NB it MAY NOT contain any special characters (ie #, !, @ etc). To maintain access to WSJ.com, you MUST enter our partner's website via Biznews Premium at least once a month. A final PS, if you had previously signed up for WSJ you'll need to clear the cookies from your device. Our help desk can assist – support@biznews.com.If you'd like to help sustain our independent voice, why not share the love by making a gift that keeps giving? Click here to access the BizNews Premium subscription signup form, and be sure tick the relevant box (see below). At R100 a month and inclusive of full membership of The Wall Street Journal, it's a mind-expanding gift at an incredibly modest price.

Alec Hogg: Gradually, then suddenly for SA politics

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