By Alec Hogg
Last week Donald Trump accepted a congratulatory phone call from the President of Taiwan. Pundits interpreted the call as a diplomatic faux pas, stirring a media furore. Publicly, the US President-elect played dumb, offering a toddler-like response that China won’t dictate whom he can speak to.
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But there is good reason to believe this was a calculated move, part of Trump’s already well telegraphed anti-China agenda, with dire consequences for the creaking rules-based international consensus that has supported globalisation. China will be hurt. But more so countries around the world which rely heavily on Chinese growth. South Africa is near the head of that queue.
Trump’s call was brokered by former Republican Presidential candidate Bob Dole, an insider who would only have done so if it served party interests. Much was made of a $20 000 retainer Dole’s Washington lobbying firm Alson & Bird gets from Taiwan. But that’s peanuts in the rarefied air of White House access. There are much bigger forces at play.
Also, the decision to go public was deliberate, and designed to embarrass a Beijing, where “face” is critical. Red China is particularly prickly about the island where the nation’s pre-communist Government fled in 1948. It treats Taiwan as an errant province and insists on the world following a “One China” policy, only recognising the mainland. Washington formally switched its allegiance from Taiwan in 1979. Until last week, no White House occupant (or soon to be) had since spoken to Taipei.
South Africans are mindful of how forceful Beijing’s instructions can be. Five years ago on China’s instruction, the ANC refused the Dalai Lama a visa to attend Archbishop Tutu’s 80th birthday. Tutu said he was “ashamed to call this lickspittle bunch my government.” On Chinese matters, Trump does not share SA President Jacob Zuma’s lack of testicular fortitude. Quite the opposite. He consistently blames China for America’s woes and intends making life a lot more difficult for Beijing during his four-year Presidential term.
The two nations house the world’s dominant economies with the US’s GDP at around $17-trillion to China’s $10-trillion. But the US is growing a slower (2.5% pa) than China (6.5%) and at the current rates will be surpassed as the world’s largest economy in 2028.
Trump believes US policy weakness has caused this, saying China’s manipulates its currency; and applies artificial trade barriers against American goods (while it is easy for Chinese products to enter the US). He is determined to address this perceived imbalance. Accepting the Taiwanese President’s call shows the seriousness of his intent.
Only time will show if Trump is cutting off a Chinese nose to spite an American face. But for South Africa, this agenda is very bad news. Because of its continued reliance on raw material exports, since 1982 there has been a close correlation between the SA economic growth rate and China’s. Any Trump-induced sniffles in Beijing are sure to deliver a blast of pneumonia to Pretoria. SA has more reason than most to fear the new world order.
