By Alec Hogg
In the week before Christmas, I shared an insider’s view that SA President Jacob Zuma would have his final roll of the dice after Davos. My source predicted a cabinet reshuffle which would see Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan and others of his ilk demoted or dumped, replaced by Zuma loyalists.
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After last week’s hugely successful showing by a Zuma-free SA delegation at the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting, rumours of the reshuffle are now at fever pitch. The confidence displayed in Davos by Ramaphosa, Gordhan and their business allies appears to have angered Zuma. Ditto the emergence of his former ally Zweli Mkhize, who has thrown his hat into the Presidential successor ring on an anti-corruption ticket.
Zuma and his increasingly embattled supporters in the ANC, “encouraged” by the crony capitalist Gupta family, have also been emboldened by external developments. They have drawn strength from the global re-emergence of “big man” governance personified in Donald Trump and his friend Vladimir Putin.
The timeline, for Zuma, is also critical. The ANC elects its new President in December. Once that happens, Zuma will have to dance to the new leader’s tune or face an instant recall. So he has just 10 months to secure a suitable successor who would not only continue in the current corrupt vein, but also ensure he avoids prison on those 783 corruption charges.
Zuma is promoting ex-wife, Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, freshly returned from a very average stint as head of the African Union. She failed in her response to the key challenges faced by the AU like the Ebola crisis, famines, refugees and the position on the ICC. Nkosazana did not attempt election for a second term. Her departure from the AU was greeted with relief and headlines like “Good riddance…”
Mrs Zuma’s record in SA government was equally unimpressive. As health minister she promoted an AIDs “cure” that was based on a toxic industrial solvent. As foreign minister she was absent during the implosion of Zimbabwe. She did enjoy credit for reforms in her home affairs portfolio but these were well underway before assuming the portfolio. And she is dogged with the title of the mother of corruption through the Sarafina scandal of 1995.
Her trump card right now is perceived loyalty to the President. Her ex-husband wants to secure her Presidential candidacy by parachuting her into a senior cabinet post. For Zuma, appointing her Finance Minister to replace Pravin Gordhan would kill two birds with one stone. Hence the heightened recent speculation.
For Zuma, it would be a very high risk play, but easily rationalised by an uneducated dictator running out of time and options. Replacing Gordhan with Nkosazana is likely to trigger an immediate national ratings downgrade, sparking another plunge in the Rand and a surge in interest rates. It will also put the newfound business/labour/government collaboration on hold. And would likely provide the rallying call for organisations like Save SA, the churches and the students to stage mass protest in the streets.
On top of which, were Zuma’s plan to actually work and his ex-wife beats Ramaphosa and Mkhize in December to become the next President of the ANC, this is sure to affect the party’s chance of retaining power in the 2019 general election. The stakes are high. Especially now that the forces of darkness are backed into a corner. Buckle up.
