🔒 WORLDVIEW: Big picture, big schmicture – it’s where the takkie hits the tar that things really matter

I’m sometimes too much of a big picture guy, something you might blame on my training as a journalist. For instance, if the economy is stagnating, we reporters will tell you things are getting worse. Which they may be, on average, but the guy in computer programming will still get his increase while the fellow in manufacturing is happy to hang onto his job. Here’s a timely reminder from the real life experience of my Scots-based colleague Jackie Cameron.

Jackie writes: “Just over a year ago, our little home on the central commuter belt between Edinburgh and Glasgow was sold five days after listing on a property website – and before the neighbourhood residents were alerted to its arrival on the market. There were two buyers on a waiting list who were contacted by the agent and arrived for a viewing as soon as we had tidied up and packed the clutter into the cupboards.

I thought that was good going. But, since then, the local residential housing market appears to have been hotting up. For the past few months, I have been watching properties being snapped up in my area at breathtaking speed.
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The “for sale” signs are being replaced by “under offer” notices within weeks, if not days. My Zimbabwean friend tells me she tried to buy three properties last month before finally securing a house. The first two offers were rejected even though she was prepared to pay up to £17,000 above the market values stipulated in home reports.

Meanwhile, property analysts quoted in the UK media generally paint a bland picture of the residential market. Figures indicate that average house prices in the UK have barely moved in the past year and prime properties in London and Scotland are reportedly under pressure.

For example, real estate sales group Knight Frank points to an annual fall of 6.4% in prime central areas in the UK capital over the year to the end of March. Values of houses in the prime country market essentially unchanged, at -0.1%, over that same period.

Knight Frank describes a “mixed picture in the housing market with growth slowing in some areas, and price falls easing in others”. Nationwide statistics indicate that the market has signs of weakness, with the average price of a home falling by 0.4% over April to £207,699, following a 0.3% drop in March.

However, in the Central Belt, where demand for homes is evidently outstripping supply, the picture is clear: it seems that you can’t go wrong with residential bricks-and-mortar. This sales activity in suburban Scotland is a reminder that success in residential property investing is dependent on local knowledge and that information about hotspots doesn’t always filter through to the spreadsheets of analysts working in the world’s big cities.

There will inevitably be other rich seams of residential real estate across the UK that are worth considering. If you are pondering whether to diversify your South African portfolio with some UK residential property, look beyond locations most visible in the public domain for opportunities.”

Great insights as always from Jackie. And a reminder that we need to embrace the complexity that exists in our micro environments and be mindful of the detail before making sweeping decisions. Not sure? Just think about the different experiences of those trying to sell houses in Johannesburg – or Cape Town.

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