🔒 Boardroom Talk: Tree people regaining ascendancy, but this is the age of the unknown unknowns

By Alec Hogg

It takes me a while to fully process the concentration of knowledge injected during a WEF annual meeting in Davos. With a presentation (see below) on Thursday, however, I’ve been getting my thoughts organized. The WEF is a Forum of very smart people with widely divergent views. It reminds you that nobody has a monopoly on the truth, not even these worthies. 
 
On reflection, the obvious trend for me was the way ‘Tree people’ (stay at home, internally-focused localists) are running out of steam after a decade in the ascendancy. On the other hand, the ideas of their polar opposites, the ‘Boat People’ (well-travelled, broad-minded globalists) are gathering momentum.

This has massive implications, including here in SA.
 
History may well tag Donald Trump’s 2016 election as the pinnacle for Tree-thinking. Vladimir Putin’s botched invasion of Ukraine looks like confirmation of its decline. As the inimitable Gideon Rachman of the FT writes below, western governments have been galvanized into a united front against Putin. Global businesses too. It’s now a war archaic Russian thinking simply cannot win.
 
Another learning from those at the WEF meeting is how fragmentation caused by actions of Trump/Brexit/Putin and the Pandemic triggered Schumpeter’s famed ‘creative destruction’ that is ushering in a new world. It could take perhaps four to five years to fully manifest. But it’s happening. Believe it.
 
Right now, nobody knows definitively how things are going to work out. So please treat anyone with all the answers with suspicion. Much better to strive for Second Level thinking – and be humble, listen carefully, question everything you think you know. For this is the new age where the emergence of unknown unknowns carry the greatest risks. 

• PS: Because BNC#5 is just around the corner, I’m only doing a single face-to-face post-Davos presentation this year. It’s at Hermanus Golf Club at 9am this Thursday. Tickets are R200 and for a good cause. Call the GM Sharon Sleigh on 028 312 1954.

• PPS: As usual post Davos, changes will be made to the BizNews Share portfolio – as a Premium member you are entitled to a seat at the interactive webinar where they will be discussed. It’s next Tuesday (31^st) at noon. Register here: https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/8226501347308280415

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