ANC turning racist? Trashing NDP? Or not? Political punditry abounds in this Election Year

 

anc-logoThis is an Election Year. So expect to experience the emergence of political punditry on a grand scale for much of 2014. Biznews blogger Alexx Zarr has decided to beat the pack by sharing what he sees in his crystal ball. Zarr’s views are, well, somewhat different to mine. He predicts the ANC will sideline the National Development Plan. I believe it is core to the Congress’s strategy. Zarr sees the ANC becoming increasingly anti-White. My view is that our ruling political party, for all its faults, remains staunchly committed to the non-racial, non-sexist heart of the Freedom Charter and the best Constitution on earth. Zarr will doubtless have his followers. Those who, like him, express their opinions forcefully. That’s one of the privileges of living in a Constitutional Democracy. A country where alternative views are tolerated. Where we can agree to disagree and let the ballot box decide our collective future. Lest we forget. – AH

Alexx-Zarr-Logo-RGB-Lowres-Transparrent-BG (2)By Alexx Zarr*

“It’s just a jump to the left.  And then a step to the right.  With your hands on your hip, you bring your knees in tight.  But it’s the pelvic thrust that really drives you insane.  Let’s do the Time Warp again…”

Thanks to the Rocky Horror Picture Show, I have a summary of mainstream politics for 2014 in South Africa.  In a seemingly less anarchic time, when left was left and right the other way, and middle was in between, it was easier to understand who sat or stood where.  However, easier is not necessarily more fun, or as intriguing.

In the world of our politics, the sand is shifting, so any line drawn there is fleeting.  The compass orienting our left and right also seems to be broken.  We do know, of course, that pragmatism and realpolitik are intrinsic to politics too, adding to the slipperiness of the quicksand.  You may have noticed that even the ever-steadfast Democratic Alliance (DA) does not seem to know where to stand.

An election year has arrived, and we shall be witnessing heightened political power games.  One party will be fighting to stay its position.  Others will be seeking a piece of the pie.  Here are my thoughts of what we can expect.

If the business of business is to stay in business (until you can sell it for a pile), then the business of politics is to stay in power.  In other words, if the business of politics is about access to resources and deciding how they are deployed, then it is also about staying in business too.  Thus, as the market shifts, as tastes and preferences change, and competitors arise, a sound business adjusts to these dynamics.

The African National Congress (ANC) is currently ‘in business’; it has held a monopoly position since 1994.  It has the intention of staying in power until Jesus comes again.  As an aside, this may not be that long if one listens to some religious folk who think the Second Coming is imminent.

The market place for the 2014 elections is a complex environment.  Like all monopolistic businesses, the ANC has become cumbersome, lethargic, and arrogant; it has delivered poor goods and services at inflated prices, and has antagonised sectors of the market.

As the governing party has failed at meeting the market’s expectations, in addition to internal squabbles about power, spoils, and policy, competitors’ ranks are swelling.  Existing alternatives are nibbling at the margins of the ANC’s market share, but it is the new competitors that are of most interest, and are of greatest concern to the ANC.

The newbies, especially the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), possibly a party of labour, and marginally Agang, will munch into the flesh of the ANC.  Here is the real threat to the hegemony of the ANC; the absconding of previously loyal voters to parties and movements that offer preferred hope of a better life for all (actually for those who have not really felt the better life yet).

This is where the left, right, lefter, and middle get tricky.  The ANC used to be left.  According to some, very far left in the pre-1994 days.  Remember the communists under every bed syndrome?  But, even discounting the McCarthyism of the former era, the ANC would have placed itself as a leftist movement (party).  Examining its policies, its international relationships and make-up, it was left.  Relative to the Democratic Alliance (DA) it is still left.  Compared to Agang?  Also left, although on a political spectrum, I am unsure where to place Agang.

However, where is the ANC relative to the EFF and any possible labour-based party?  The answer may be evident if I can place where the EFF sits, or stands.  I reckon the EFF is a nationalist party, and not a Marxist-Leninist lefty-type construct, as the ANC was.

The language of the EFF is very Frantz Fanon-ish, the Algerian revolutionary who was strong on nationalism.  Here is an extract from Fanon’s seminal writing, that establishes the centrality of nationalism:  But if nationalism is not made explicit, if it is not enriched and deepened by a very rapid transformation into a consciousness of social and political needs, in other words into humanism, it leads up a blind alley….The national government, if it wants to be national, ought to govern by the people and for the people, for the outcasts and by the outcasts.  (Frantz Fanon, 1961.  The Wretched of the Earth.  Chapter 3: The Pitfalls of National Consciousness).

The EFF Manifesto is headed by a quote from Fanon, establishing his prominence in their thinking.  However, despite the EFF being nationalist rather than leftist, their story-line appeals to the voters who have been least touched by the ANC’s delivery promises; the so-called outcasts.  But, it is not only the poor, the unemployed, and rural people who find solace in the hope that the EFF offers.  If debates and conversations on social media and talk programs are any indication, there is support from the middle market too.  If a single swallow indicates a season turning, then Mr Dali Mpofu’s side-switching may also indicate something.

Anyone voting for the EFF will be taking numbers from the ANC.  The same can be said for any labour-based party, or a systemic undermining of labour support for the ANC.

Add community-based civil unrest driven by a lack of local service delivery.  Layer in other annoyances like the Gauteng toll roads, Nkandla, and Guptagate.  There is pressure building on the monopoly that the ANC has exercised.

How does the ANC respond to this pressure?  In which direction do they shift to prevent their support base from unravelling, from switching sides?

It simply has to move in a direction that arrests the leakage.  I am unsure whether this is left or right, but their language and rhetoric will have to be more like the EFF and Marxist-style trade unions, and less like the DP and Agang.  I think what we may experience from the ANC are the following:

* The silent deferral of the National Development Plan (NDP) – too conservative and business friendly,

*  Strong debates about the nationalisation of the economy – still too white and foreign,

*  Propositions of land restitution with no compensation – still too many landless people, and white landowners have been intransigent,

*  Conversations about more urgent processes for wealth transfer – dual economy is undermining democracy and freedom,

*  The taking of pot shots at big business for their lack of transformation – does not reflect national demographics at every level, and

*  An increase in race-driven language to develop an ‘us and them’ atmosphere – whites still beneficiaries of privilege, the cause of ongoing black disadvantage.

No matter the eventual outcome of the elections, the ANC has begun to feel the heat of a disconsolate market place.  There are too many outstanding promises, there have been too many scandals, and there are erstwhile comrades who are grumpy.

Let me put my money where my mouth is.  I shall venture a really dumb thing, an election prediction.  More voters than normal will not vote, I reckon 25% or more will prefer to shop, braai or watch TV.  For better or worse, the ANC will return to power, with about 60% of the vote.  The DA will perhaps garner 18% and the EFF near 12%.  Agang will be a bit player.  Cope will be a shadow of its previous performance, and the Inkatha Freedom Party will continue to wane.

* Alexx lives in and works from Centurion.  He has degrees in economics, politics and strategic studies.  In the recent past he has been managing director of a mutual fund company, a pseudo banker managing wealth and transactional products and currently runs a specialist research and consulting entity.  Before that he did a stint at National Treasury and at a Constitutional entity, managing its research division. He has travelled extensively, studied offshore and done a stint of work for the IMF.  More than most things he loves to mountain bike, let his dogs walk him and write – just write.

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