by Cees Bruggemans
SA GDP growth accelerated nicely from 2.1% annualised in the 3Q2014 to 4.1% in the 4Q2014. Most of the quarterly recovery action was in mining (going from +4% to +15% annualised) and in manufacturing (going from -1% to +9.5%) as post-strike recovery proceeded apace.
However, trend-wise, mining & manufacturing remained the weakest sectors in the economy. Mining still not having overcome negative growth of -1% and manufacturing effectively stagnant for a zero gain in 2014.
For the year 2014 overall, the gratifying bounce in 4Q2014 meant that GDP achieved growth of 1.5%. The strongest gains were observed in agriculture with +5.5% year-on-year (great harvests) and construction (+3%).
Noticeable was the steady deceleration in government sector growth to 1% quarterly annualised and 2.5% year-on-year.
Finance accelerated quarterly growth to 3.5% though stuck at 2% growth for the year. The various trades even turned negative in the 4Q2014 with a 1% growth for the year.
Overall, the 4Q2014 showed nice recovery relative to earlier quarters, with the year overall still a disappointment at 1.5% but at least not worse than this as assumed earlier.
The acceleration observable in various sectors during 4Q2014 could continue in early 2015, with the oil price windfall especially having a favourable impact on the retail, wholesale & motor trades, which should perform more strongly.
The full extent to which these benefits will percolate through will centrally depend on how negative any contributions will be from electricity shortages & labour disruptions. Overall, though, 2015 GDP growth should top 2%.
Another step-up in the works, if a small one.
