The decision by the National Prosecuting Authority to drop fraud charges against Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan – and two top ex-SARS officials – begs the question why the charges were placed in the first place? Was the decision taken despite knowledge of the damage it could do to the economy? Was the decision politically driven? Cape Messenger editor Donwald Pressly analyses the words of controversial political analyst Karima Brown – seen by many as a toady of the ruling party – who says the ANC is undergoing “a push for change” while the country was undergoing a constitutional, judicial and political crisis.
By Donwald Pressly*
One certainly knows that the ruling party is in trouble when one of its most enthusiastic praise singers, journalist-turned-political analyst Karima Brown, breaks into a song – or is it a chant? – of protest.
Brown, who jumped out of the political closet when she – and a colleague – were seen sporting African National Congress branding gear at the most recent national general council of the ruling party, said: “This case had no legal legs to begin with. This case lacked foundation. That is why ex-constitutional court judges …are throwing their weight behind the Minister (Gordhan). They believe the rule of law is being abused and this is a vexatious charge.” Those were her words before the fraud charge was withdrawn against Gordhan.
Interviewed by eNCA – which describes itself as presenting real news and not propaganda – intermittently before and after NPA boss Shaun Abrahams announced that the charges would be dropped against Gordhan, former acting SARS commissioner Ivan Pillay and former commissioner Oupa Magashula, she said the legal fraternity backlash – against the NPA and Abrahams – was followed by a political backlash. “As you now .. the last time South Africans went to the polls in the municipal elections (in August 2016) … the tectonic shifts which took place in the metros (metropolitan cities) particularly in Johannesburg, one of the richest municipalities on the continent…. And of course at a psychological level at Nelson Mandela Bay.” She was referring to the loss to the DA by the ANC of the two major municipalities. People in the ruling party were worried about the direction in which the country was going. She said simply: “There are a lot of people who stand to lose patronage networks.” She was referring to the possible fall of President Jacob Zuma or at least the loss of his political leverage to ensure that his cronies have access to the political trough.
Brown, who earlier this year resigned as Group Political Editor of Independent Newspapers for reasons still unknown, said she believed the marches would still go ahead in support of Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan in Pretoria on Wednesday, 2 November. “There is definitely a wide sectoral response behind the Finance Minister…including members of the cabinet…including members of the governing party. Opposition parties across the board (are) united (for Gordhan). Quite a lot of South Africans, ordinary South Africans are going to go out. People are making the connections between the machinations (directed) at the treasury and what the price of bread and butter and petrol is for them when they go to the shopping centres.”
Brown said she was at the premier of the launch of the film, the Whale Caller (An adaption of the novel written by South African writer Zakes Mda and produced for film by Zola Maseko), on Sunday night where she encountered a “lot of ANC types” and a lot of people “linked to the ruling party”. She reported: “I can tell you many people are concerned. We are in a very fluid state in our politics, both in the governing party and in the state. Should the patronage networks be disturbed as in should those who are coming after the treasury not succeed… we have seen former Finance Minister of four days, Des van Rooyen bringing an application, dropping it (against the release of the Public Protector’s state capture report on the influence of the Gupta family on state contracts and on President Jacob Zuma himself) only to reinstate it…People are…making it up as they go along. What is driving this? What looks like apparent madness…is (a) crisis…(a) full-on political, constitutional and judicial crisis that we are facing.”
Not an easy man to dislodge but he is not unassailable any more
Asked how this was playing out in the ruling party – with much of the narrative is centred around President Zuma, Brown said: “I think there is an increasing realisation in the African National Congress…that any faction makes…whether you are with the president or against the president is: Will the ANC be able to hold on to power in (the national election in) 2019?” Brown got the nub of the issue. All the background noise – the court cases, the derailed court actions, the Hawks holding a SARS staff member Vlok Symington hostage – was all about that. Politics, she reported, was about “sets of interests” and they were all in a state of scramble. There were many people in the ANC “who want to be at the helm of political decision making in the country…they are beginning to weigh up their options. As we see inside the ANC the push for the change coming…We know that President Jacob Zuma is very rooted in the organisation…not an easy man to dislodge…but increasingly he is not as unassailable as he was. Even within his own camp people are beginning to make calculations because the point is…they might well end up holding on to the ANC but losing the country. ”
Glad to see Karima Brown back to her brutally honest self again. She was captured but seems now she's unshackled herself from those chains.
— Kgauza wa Lecowza (@KgaugeloSM) October 31, 2016
What emerged from the press conference by the NPA on Tuesday indicated that Abrahams was fairly unmoved by the possible impact of the fraud charges on the economy. He said the economy did not depend on “one man”, being Gordhan. “These people…were summonsed. It was Minister Gordhan, it was Mr Pillay and Mr Magashula. All three persons enjoyed the rights of equality, under the rule of law, and equal benefit of the law. When we look at a matter…irrespective of who the accused person is… whether it is the lowest of citizens or the most senior citizen in the country… each citizen must be treated fairly and equally so. This particular matter was treated like we would treat any other person… why must I give due consideration to the political climate because that is what you are asking me to do.” He was replying to a question about whether he had consider the economic impact of hauling the finance minister to court.
The ANC show is not over until the Fat Lady Sings
Brown commented that the press conference by Abrahams demonstrated that “his hubris is only surpassed by his stupidity…and his lack of political acumen and fundamental lack of understanding of what a constitutional democracy is actually about”. Brown continued: “While we listen to him going on and on…throwing one official after the next under the bus…one started realising the impact of a person with no credibility who is prepared to sacrifice junior officials for a decision… which he decided to make public.” She was referring to his reference to his two underlings as having provided him with the grounds for the prosecution – which he had merely “reviewed”. Brown said she could not imagine that any of his colleagues would from now on have any respect for him. “This man has absolutely no credibility…more importantly he has done everything in his power to demonstrate the fear that so many have that the instruments of state is (sic: are) being used for private political gain. Shaun Abrahams made absolutely no sense here today…the only conclusion that one can come to…is he was in fact, a tool and a pawn in the hands of proxies. I think it is going to be incredibly hard for Mr Abrahams to dispel the country of that notion.” Abrahams would, she said, likely face a massive “civil claim” from the three. One can almost hear the Elephant in the Room trumpeting.
Karima Brown commenting on ENCA #ShaunAbrahams – 'his hubris is only surpassed by his stupidity'. Ouch!!
— Elinor Sisulu (@ElinorSisulu) October 31, 2016
It just proves that the show may be over for the Zuma faction soon – a faction with which Brown has been closely associated for many years. She appears to have had a Damascus journey of change and insight. As they say the show is not over until the Fat Lady Sings. Well, Brown may not, indeed, be the Fat Lady, but when the former political puppet starts pulling the plug on her former cronies, then one has to sit up and take notice.
- Donwald Pressly is editor of Cape Messenger
