Cigar butt or a Havana? Stay out until Kaplan again calls “Buy Gijimia”

gumede

 Gijima founder and chairman Robert Gumede is a real charmer. He showed that again after my late morning call yesterday. I rang to follow up on a shock SENS announcement that his closest business associate, Carlos Ferreira, had left the building. Within a few minutes Gumede had rounded up his company’s interim CEO, cleared their diaries, jumped in his car and sped through from Pretoria to join me in Sandton for CNBC Power Lunch.

You can watch the interview by clicking here.

From his friendly demeanour, you’d never have guessed how many body punches the once celebrated tech entrepreneur has been taking. Or that the value of his empire has crashed to 5% of its value of three years ago. Indeed, that his Gijima, once valued north of R2bn, only survives because Gumede himself stumped up half the R150m needed to recapitalize it. His own money, he tells me. Not the bank’s.

There are plenty of other Gijima shareholders who don’t share Gumede’s confidence. Because of the deeply discounted price of the rights issue (new shares were sold at 5c compared with the 18c pre-announcement level), failure to participate diluted a ownership to a third of the previous level. Even so, those holding 28% of the non-Gumede owned shares baulked at throwing good money after bad.

Gumede tells me he’s relocated back into the building. After easing into non-executive chairmanship a few years back, he’s now forced to get his hands dirty. It’s entirely possible Gumede’s return is partly to blame for recent ructions. Like any founder who returns during a crisis, he is sure to have wanted changes. But Ferreira’s departure is not the news investors would have expected, nor wanted.

Ferreira and Gumede had been business partners for well over a decade. They provided a united front during the 2005 AST merger, giving comfort to staunch shareholders like the team at Allan Gray who owned piles of Gijima AST shares in their personal capacity.

For many who remained faithful despite continuous disappointments, end March’s announcement of terrible interim results and a R150m recapitalization was the last straw. Irnest Kaplan, my go-to analyst on tech stocks, said that was the news which finally turned him from a long-time bull who bought into the potential. In April he changed his mind and urged clients to sell. It was a tough decision. Clients who followed his March call banked between 12c and 20c a share. A far cry from the 45c of a year before or the 125c of March 2010. But after yesterday’s news they’ll be grateful. The best price you’ll be bid for Gijima shares today is 5c.

Analysts like Kaplan regarded Ferreira as the voice of rationality who offset Gumede’s eccentricities. While he was minding the till, it didn’t seem to matter that Gijima’s founder and 37% shareholder was a bosom buddy with firebrand political leader Julius Malema. They could also turn a blind eye to regular coverage by the popular press of the “IT billionaire’s” spendthrift ways. It was Ferreira, too, who spearheaded the marketing of the rights issue, bringing aboard most of the remaining institutional investors. Kaplan says after his departure he fears for the company’s future.

Gumede won’t hear a word of it. A survivor, his business learning came from the school of hard knocks. And he’s not afraid of hard work – as a youth he helped support his single mother and six siblings as a golf caddie, a gardener and petrol attendant. He is putting on a bold front. He said on air that Ferreira had simply come to a place ion his life where he wanted to step away: “Like you did (with Moneyweb)”. Publicly at least, Ferreira is singing from the same hymnbook, telling ITWeb’s Nicola Mawson he’d been at Gijima for eight years and it was time to move on.

Maybe. But recent facts make it hard to swallow the spin. Ferreira is the fifth departure form Gijima’s 10 directors listed in 2012 annual report. Former CEO John Miller stepped away so quietly outsiders never noticed. So did respected Sasol executive director Nolitha Fakude, who’d served on the Gijima board for little over a year. In September last year, CEO Jonas Bogoshi threw in the towel after five years in the hot seat and 18 months of “restructuring”. Then two months ago, former Vodacom deputy CEO Andrew Mthembu resigned after nine years as a non-executive director “with immediate effect”.

Gijima’s current market capitalization of just under R200m includes the value of R150m in cash injected just three weeks ago. Which means the rest of the Gumede IT empire is today worth a paltry R50m. Bargain hunters may see an opportunity. Both Gumede and interim CEO Eileen Wilton (ex CIO at Old Mutual and Anglo American) are sure it’s no cigar butt that could give trader’s a final puff. They believe Gijima is a Havana in the making. It’s probably worth a punt for those who like playing tickey stocks. But I’d only be tempted once Irnest Kaplan again changes his mind.

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