“Santa Claus” rally looks unlikely as gloom grips global markets

Markets around the world have had a gloomy 2018. Various factors have conspired to send European, Asian, Latin American, South African, and even some US stocks into a slump.

Many stock market indices are officially in bear market territory, down more than 20% from their highs. These include the Shanghai Composite, the Hang Seng, and the Kospi in Asia, the DAX and the FTSE MIB in Europe, and the Russell 2000 in the US. In South Africa, up to two-thirds of JSE-listed companies are officially in a bear market and the ALSI is down around 15% from its mid-year high.

With unresolved trade tensions dampening hopes for renewed global growth, the chances of a “Santa Claus” rally – a sustained stock market uptick in the year’s final trading week – seem dim.

Still, South Africans can take some comfort in the fact that the JSE is doing relatively better than many of its peers – China’s Shanghai Composite is down nearly 30% from its high in the early part of the year. Perhaps there’s still hope for a year-end miracle.

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