I’m feeling a lot better about South Africa today. Loadshedding continues, of course, but at least we have a president with the humility to realise the folly of his Egyptian jamboree and scurry home. Maybe intel that 2,000MW of Eskom’s loss was due to sabotage was what turned Inkwazi around. No matter. Fact is he acted. And is on it. That’s the Prez SA wants to see.
Also lifting my spirits was a chat with old pal Piet Viljoen (it’s in Biznews Premium) who opined that today’s mood among SA investors is reminiscent to 2000 and 2001. The panic to get money out of Rands was then so intense I recall a fellow scooping all the expensive watches at a high margin jeweller (wrongly) believing they would hedge him against a collapsing currency.
Viljoen, a deep value investor who yesterday merged his 20-year old RECM with Sam Houlie’s Counterpoint, says it’s almost two decades since he saw as many bargains available on the JSE. And reminded me the cyclical nature of markets tells us this too shall pass – as it did back then when the Alsi40 packed on a world beating 332% in the five years to May 2008.
For reasons articulated in our interview, he’s not bold enough to predict a repeat. But when long-time market veterans like Viljoen tell us circumstances are similar to those before a major rebound, it pays to listen. As our mutual investment hero Warren Buffett says: The time to be greedy is when everyone else is fearful. And fear stalks every corner of the JSE right now.
