The world is as we see it. Perspective is everything. Which allows us to function in normal conditions. But when preparing for an uncertain tomorrow, one must abandon pre-conceptions or embedded opinions, and investigate with an open mind. I got a timeous reminder from two diametrically opposed emails from members of the Biznews community in response to yesterday’s Daily Insider.
One from a businessman accused me of supporting the destruction of SA’s economy through propagating the misguided beliefs of politicians, scientists and other media. Although couched more diplomatically, in essence his argument is because Covid-19 only kills the elderly, they should be sacrificed on the altar of economic growth. He asked that the note not be republished. So it won’t be.
A second correspondent, married to a Hollander, watches Dutch TV nightly. What he sees makes him fret about SA’s readiness to withstand what lies ahead, or even whether its leaders appreciate the severity of the impact. He shared Wednesday night’s Dutch TV documentary in which exhausted doctors admitted once patients left the Corona ward for ICU, the family is called to say goodbye. And the Dutch Army “is assembling field hospitals as though they were on a military campaign.”
To the first member of our community, whose views are similar to those previously held by the British prime minister, I suggested he read the Imperial College reports that changed Boris Johnson’s mind. Or the latest update which concludes interventions across 11 EU countries have averted 59,000 deaths. The second correspondent was pointed towards my interview with Western Cape premier Alan Winde, who explained among feverish preparations are temporary hospitals now ready and waiting.
Whether SA’s planning will be enough is anyone’s guess. But the lockdown immeasurably improves our chances and from the experience elsewhere, will save many thousands of lives. Forewarned is forearmed.
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Comment from Biznews community member David Williams:
Enjoying your excellent commentary through Biznews as always, and right now have the time to respond!
Comparing your two correspondents of opposing views on Covid-19 – to lockdown or not – neatly summed up the nature of the dilemma. It is what Churchill would have called “an option of difficulties” – either route will have costs.
I am not sure, though, that the likely scale of economic damage from lockdown in SA has been calculated – isn’t that the really pressing task, to enable informed choices? Already after one week it seems headed to be enormous and catastrophic. We should be hearing from economists and business people in the same exhaustive detail that we have heard from health experts. The doctors and medical researchers are professionally right to press on government the best ways to contain infection – but it is not their job to worry about the economic consequences. There is much dispute, scientific and political, about the likely effects of the virus in mortality rates – but there is little mystery about the obliterative consequences of extended lockdown to economies, especially in SA where government and Rupert and the Oppenheimers are just not going to be able to provide enough to prevent the destruction of the middle class, which not even the Great Depression managed to achieve. That is if the lockdown is extended.
Amputate Adam Smith’s invisible hand, and the patient will bleed to death.
The point to realise here, I think, is that there is no easy way out of this. There will be sacrifices either way – and either way, as military commanders know, what casualties are we prepared to accept? Answer that question, and you confront the option of difficulties.
And why are they worrying about selling cigarettes? What else have they got wrong?
- David Williams is the former deputy editor of Financial Mail
Comment from Biznews community member Brian Austin:
Alec,
My wife, who is marooned in Cape Town, sends me (in the UK) your daily Biznews. Always interesting.
Just one correction, if I may.
Boris Johnson never supported ‘sacrificing the elderly’. His every comments, as are they all, was based on scientific advice from the chief medical officer and the government’s chief scientific adviser. Both also happen to be epidemiologists. Initially, the computer modelling done at Imperial College in London suggested that ‘flattening the curve’ was the way to handle the virus. The phrase ‘herd immunity’ was heard a lot a week ago. But if a week is a long time in politics it’s an age right now. Since then the emphasis has swung to ‘testing, testing, testing’, as the WHO has been emphasizing from the beginning. No one is being ‘sacrificed’.
Incidentally, the youngest victim to die here in the UK was 13.
With best regards at this most challenging time.
Comment from Biznews community member Rudi De Beer:
I for one beg to differ.
The fact that when we return to work or school, there will probably still be unidentified cases amongst us. We have seen what just 10 cases can do in a two week period. As we enter winter this will only become a bigger problem. We definitively cannot afford to go into lockdown for months. The Covid-19 virus will according to most scientist be around for at least two years.
Where will that leave us? Sheltering the whole population for 2 years? Banning all meetings?
Comment from Biznews community member Phil du Preez:
Even if SA has 20,000 deaths, the country will deal with it.
BUT!!!!
Will the country be able to deal with maybe 400,000++ births during 2 weeks in December 2020?
“For those who understand, no explanation is needed. For those who do not understand, no explanation is possible. Jacques Paul”
Comment from Biznews community member Hercules Van Wyk:
Good morning Alec,
Thank you for this e-mail, which is without a shadow of a doubt, a humdinger of note. Gone are the days when the ideas we held were good enough to get by and I say that with exceptions. Those of us who think outside of the box (excuse the pun) know how difficult it is to change the status quo, but Corona has put an end to it.
Only those that are prepared to rethink, retool and re-invent will lead us into a successful future. The world has become flatter and flatter and the sooner they wake up and catch up – in some instances already too late – the better for all and sundry.
I will write a little later (lunchtime) and tell you what I have suggested to 3 professors regarding the treatment of the pandemic. They were stunned and are now out “researching my theory” at break-neck speed.
I promise to get it to you later today.
Continued success to you and thank you for steering us in a direction of flatness and success – you’re contribution is priceless.
