It took just 17 seconds yesterday for the world to become a very much more dangerous place. After apparently warning a Russian jet 10 times to leave its airspace, the Turkish military shot down the offending Sukhoi Su-24. Russia’s president Vladimir Putin is outraged, accusing the Turks of stabbing an ally in the back because they are actually in cahoots with the Islamic State. He went onto national television last night to promise “serious consequences”. Russians have been told to cancel trips to Turkey and those who are there, to return immediately. The Turks received immediate support from their NATO allies and US President Barack Obama issued a statement saying Turkey had a right to defend its airspace. Whew. A lot can happen in 24 hours. The incident puts enormous pressure on the recently created alliance between the West and Russia aimed at serving the common interest of destroying ISIS and reaching a solution in Syria. Rational observers will be hoping for cool heads in Moscow, Ankara – and Washington. – Alec Hogg
From the Financial Times of London:
Turkey shot-down a Russian fighter jet on Tuesday after it veered into its airspace for 17 seconds, in a long feared clash that starkly demonstrated the dangers of Syria’s war to international security.
Russian president Vladimir Putin warned the “tragic incident” would bring “serious consequences” for Turkey, following Russia’s first loss of life in a military engagement with a Nato country since the Cold War.
In a sign that the incident may jeopardise greater cooperation over Syria, Mr Putin went on to accuse Ankara of providing financial and military support to jihadist extremists, asking: “do they want to put Nato at Isis’s service?”.
“Today’s loss is a stab in the back by the accomplices of terrorism,” a visibly angry Mr Putin told state TV. “We have always treated Turkey as a friendly state. I don’t know in whose interests today’s incident is, but it’s not in ours.”
President Obama said Turkey “has the right to defend its territory and airspace” but also called for both countries to de-escalate.
“This points to an ongoing problem with Russian operations in Syria in the sense that they are going after the moderate opposition,” he said.
The US was prepared to work more closely with Russia if it makes a “strategic shift” and focuses its efforts on Isis. “We may differ with Russian policy elsewhere but we should be able to agree that we are all working to defeat Isis.”
The downing of the Russian jet threatens diplomatic efforts over Syria, at a time when divisions between Moscow and the west over the conflict appeared to narrow.
Officials have been working to build a consensus with Russia on a political transition in Syria after the terror attacks by Isis in Paris this month and the bombing of a Russian airliner over Egypt’s Sinai peninsula in late October.
The incident rattled European markets. The Turkish lira dropped 0.9 per cent against the US dollar, and the Istanbul equity market lost 1.6 per cent. Russian stocks fell, having risen sharply the day before, while the rouble was flat.
Putin will respond. Not today, not directly, not symmetrically, but Putin will respond.
— Michael McFaul (@McFaul) November 24, 2015
Oil prices gained more than 2.3 per cent after Mr Putin’s comments, with Brent crude oil, the international benchmark, hitting $45.80.
Ankara said it shot down the Russian Sukhoi Su-24 on Tuesday morning after it was given 10 warnings to leave a Turkish-imposed exclusion zone that runs 15 miles into Syria. Mr Putin disputed the Turkish account, saying the warplanes were targeting Russian nationals who had joined Isis.
Nato expressed solidarity with Turkey after a special meeting of the North Atlantic Council. However Jens Stoltenberg, the Nato secretary general, urged Moscow and Ankara to manage the situation with a “cool head” and to avoid escalation.
Turkey’s request for a Nato discussion on Tuesday did not formally invoke an “Article 4” emergency meeting, a more serious trigger to consider a threat to its territorial integrity or stability.
The incident has given a reality check to western diplomats working to build a consensus with Russia on a political transition in Syria after the terror attacks by Isis in Paris this month and the bombing of a Russian airliner over Egypt’s Sinai peninsula in late October.
Senior Western diplomats said it was too early to say whether it would bring an end to greater Russian cooperation in the fight against Isis. But capitals are bracing for Moscow to retaliate, either through economic measures or by further attacks on Turkish-allied opposition groups in Syria.
Russian anger over the downing of its fighter jet threatened to turn into a full-blown commercial backlash. Sergei Lavrov, foreign minister, cancelled a planned trip to Ankara on Wednesday and warned Russians not to travel to Turkey.
Natalie Tours, a leading Russian travel agency, announced it would stop selling tour packages to Turkey, while the deputy Speaker of the Russian lower house of parliament called for all Russian flights to Turkey to be halted
Alexei Pushkov, chairman of the foreign affairs committee of Russia’s lower house, tweeted that Turkey’s economic losses as a result of the deterioration of relations with Russia would “exceed tenfold the profits of those who have established a profitable oil business with Isis”.
Turkish media and local activists said the Russian jet came down in Yamadi on the Turkish-Syrian border. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a UK-based activist group, however, put the crash site in the Jabal Turkman area of northern Latakia.
Earlier, several parts of the rural northern Latakia region were being shelled from the air during clashes involving regime forces and loyalist militia on one side and rebels and Islamist divisions on the other.
Two parachutes were seen in the air, according to local activists and images broadcast on Turkish television and on social media, but there was no immediate confirmation on the fate of the crew.
Activists said one Russian pilot was captured in nearby Ateyra village, and an unconfirmed video on social media showed a blonde pilot in Russian uniform lying dead on the ground, surrounded by local fighters.
Syrian forces backed by Russian warplanes have been fighting local Turkmen militia in the area for at least the past week, according to local activists. Turkey summoned the Russian ambassador to protest about the bombing four days ago.
With the war in Syria bringing aircraft from the Syrian regime and Russia close to its borders, Turkey has made clear repeatedly that it will not tolerate violations of its airspace. In October, Turkey shot down a drone after it crossed into Turkish airspace.
Ian Kearns, director of the European Leadership Network, an independent grouping of serving and former military officials and politicians, said the incident was “predictable”, and indicative of the dangers faced across Nato member states.
“We’ve seen Russian planes buzzing warships, goading other jets and being provocative above the alliance’s airspace,” he said.
(c) 2015 The Financial Times Ltd.
