In a fascinating piece from RW Johnson, he applied his mind to the prospect of an independent Western Cape. The feedback was split, both for and against. And one of the key opposition stances was that the province could not survive economically on its own. And while the below analysis by John Maynard doesn’t prove or disprove this notion, it does highlight the economic prowess of Gauteng, and shows how migration patterns all point to it as the source of jobs and economic prosperity. Some more interesting insight from the statistical economist. – Stuart Lowman
By John Maynard*
It’s a well known fact that a large number of people move to Gauteng in order to look for work. We take a look at the numbers (from the 2011 Census) and show on an interactive map where the people that move into Gauteng are coming from.
The map shows a target within each province, scroll over the target to see the number of people born in each province that now lives in Gauteng. The size of the target and thickness of the line corresponds to the number of people moving to Gauteng i.e. the bigger the target and the thicker the line the more people from that province/region moved to Gauteng.
In October 2011 (date of the Census) there were 11 967 586 people living in Gauteng (23% of South Africa’s population crammed into South Africa’s smallest province in terms of square meters). Of the 11 967 586 people living in Gauteng, 6 633 806 people were born in Gauteng. This leaves 5 333 718 people living in Gauteng that were not born in Gauteng.
Limpopo
The province that provided the largest influx of people into Gauteng is Limpopo, with 1 278 995 people that were born in Limpopo now living in Gauteng (that basically implies that 10.7% of Gauteng’s population comes from Limpopo).
Outside of South Africa
Gauteng also houses 1 111 661 people that were not born in South Africa (thus 9.3% of Gauteng’s population being foreign born people).
KwaZulu-Natal
693 420 people born in KwaZulu-Natal now reside in Gauteng (or 5.8% of Gauteng’s population)
Eastern Cape
529 149 people born in Eastern Cape now reside in Gauteng (or 4.4% of Gauteng’s population)
Mpumalanga
506 410 people born in Mpumalanga now reside in Gauteng (or 4.2% of Gauteng’s population)
North West
414 866 people born in North West now reside in Gauteng (or 3.5% of Gauteng’s population)
Free State
378 121 people born in Free State now reside in Gauteng (or 3.2% of Gauteng’s population)
Western Cape
183 725 people born in Western Cape now reside in Gauteng (or 1.5% of Gauteng’s population)
Northern Cape
91 068 people born in Northern Cape now reside in Gauteng (or 0.8% of Gauteng’s population)
From the map and details above, it’s clear that people from all provinces, and outside of South Africa (presumably our close African neighbours) migrate to Gauteng, and they do so most in the hope of finding a job. But with unemployment close to 30 percent and anaemic growth, finding a job in South Africa (and in Gauteng specifically can take a very, very long time).
- John Maynard is the nom de plume of an independent economist who is obsessed with official statistics – and uses these facts to blast through misleading narrative and propaganda. For more of his unique insights click here.
