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Sometimes a fresh pair of eyes can make all the difference.
___STEADY_PAYWALL___Having had a career focusing on economics, business and investments, it surprised me that unlie their counterparts elsewhere, SA’s political scribes pay little attention to by-election results. For the analytic mind, these are the only truly quantifiable reflection of the temperature among the electorate. My perspective got some support this week with the latest conclusions by IPSOS.
After the four by-elections held on 27 July, there have now been 34 since the 2021 Election where the ANC’s national share historically dropped below 50%. In those four by-elections, the ANC did well in Umvoti (KZN) but worse in the other three. Its share in the 34 by-elections combined is down four percentage points on last November.
Put differently, using simple arithmetic, the by-election results suggest the ANC’s current share of the vote is 42% (ie November’s 46% less 4%). The IPSOS “nationally represented study” conducted between mid May and early July, puts the ANC at an identical 42%. Different processes, same result. Coalition government is coming. Believe it and prepare accordingly.
More for you to read today:
- Bank Stocks Make a Comeback. Major banks including Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have outperformed S&P 500 since the end of June.
- Wagner Mercenaries Enter the Spotlight as Russian Troops Struggle in Ukraine. Offering freedom to Russian prison inmates who join the war, Wagner seeks to bulk up and replenish Russian losses in Ukraine.
- America’s Industrial Base Isn’t Ready for War With China. Washington must invest immediately in a domestic capacity to build and repair military hardware.
- LIV Golf’s Player Contracts Include Restrictions to Go With the Big Money. A contract reviewed by The Wall Street Journal includes requirements to wear LIV gear at non-LIV tournaments, restraints on interviews and an agreement to help recruit other golfers to the Saudi-backed upstart.
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