🔒 Premium: Double confirmation the ANC now down to 42% – coalition Parly coming in 2024

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Sometimes a fresh pair of eyes can make all the difference.

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Having had a career focusing on economics, business and investments, it surprised me that unlie their counterparts elsewhere, SA’s political scribes pay little attention to by-election results. For the analytic mind, these are the only truly quantifiable reflection of the temperature among the electorate. My perspective got some support this week with the latest conclusions by IPSOS.

After the four by-elections held on 27 July, there have now been 34 since the 2021 Election where the ANC’s national share historically dropped below 50%. In those four by-elections, the ANC did well in Umvoti (KZN) but worse in the other three. Its share in the 34 by-elections combined is down four percentage points on last November.

Put differently, using simple arithmetic, the by-election results suggest the ANC’s current share of the vote is 42% (ie November’s 46% less 4%). The IPSOS “nationally represented study” conducted between mid May and early July, puts the ANC at an identical 42%. Different processes, same result. Coalition government is coming. Believe it and prepare accordingly.

More for you to read today: 

In this in-depth interview, Nedbank CEO Mike Brown tries (unsuccessfully) to hide irritation at the slow pace of SA’s economic reform, but brightens up on the demand that’s building for renewable energy investments. The country’s longest-serving banking boss occupies a unique vantage point from which to share his insights on a variety of subjects – ranging from Nedbank’s recent interim results including the 5% staff reduction and R10bn investment into digitisation; through to the danger of SA’s potential greylisting and urgent need to regulate crypto currencies. He spoke to Alec Hogg of BizNews.

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