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South Africa Market Review
South African markets closed in the red yesterday, after the European Central Bank (ECB) decided to delay its stimulus package to next month. Major losers, Eqstra Holdings, Assore and Ascension Properties dropped 6.8%, 4.2% and 4.2%, respectively. Retail sector stocks, Truworths International, Mr Price Group and Clicks Group declined 2.7%, 1.9% and 1.7%, respectively. Barclays Africa Group, FirstRand and Nedbank Group fell 2.3%, 1.7% and 1.4%, respectively. On the upside, Famous Brands gained 2.9%, after the company announced that it has tied up with Shoprite in the opening of a Debonairs Pizza outlet in Angola. Gold miners, Sibanye Gold and Harmony Gold Mining gained 1.6% and 1.5%, respectively. The JSE All Share Index dropped 0.9% to close at 49,392.59.
UK Market Review
UK markets finished lower yesterday, after the ECB Chief, Mario Draghi, stated that the policymakers would first ascertain if the regionâs economy requires additional stimulus measures at the start of FY15. Meanwhile, the BoE left its key interest rate unchanged. Oil sector stocks, Tullow Oil, BP, and Royal Dutch Shell Class âBâ retreated 2.9%, 2.3% and 1.3%, respectively. Rio Tinto declined 2.6%, after it revealed that tough conditions prevailed for the company in the short term. Peers, Anglo American and BHP Billiton lost 2.8% and 1.2%, respectively. However, TUI Travel climbed 3.6%, after its annual underlying operating profit rose 11.0%. easyJet gained 2.9%, after reporting a 3.1% annualised rise in its passengers for November. The FTSE 100 Index fell 0.6% to close at 6,679.37.
US Market Review
US markets ended in negative territory yesterday, as the ECBâs decision to delay additional stimulus dampened investor sentiment. Energy sector stocks, Range Resources, Transocean and Diamond Offshore Drilling plummeted 6.1%, 4.6% and 4.3%, respectively, tracking a decline in oil prices. Ford Motor shed 1.3%, as the company expanded a recall of about 38,500 vehicles in the US due to defective airbags. PVH Corporation fell 1.4%, after posting 3Q15 revenue below market estimates. On the upside, Microsoft climbed 1.6%, after Barnes & Noble agreed to buy the companyâs stake in Nook Media LLC. The S&P 500 Index dropped 0.1% to settle at 2,071.92, while the DJIA Index fell 0.1% to close at 17,900.10. The NASDAQ Index declined 0.1% to finish at 4,769.44.
Asia Market Review
Markets in Asia are trading mostly lower this morning, ahead of the release of US nonfarm payrolls data later today. In Japan, Screen Holdings and Nippon Telegraph & Telephone shed 5.5% and 1.3%, respectively. In Hong Kong, Haitong Securities soared 12.9%, following news that the company was in discussions with Banco Espirito Santo to acquire its investment-banking division. In South Korea, Korean Air Lines advanced 0.2%, after the South Korean government stated that it would launch a feasible study on a likely expansion of Jeju International Airport. The Nikkei 225 Index is trading 0.1% lower at 17,871.38, while the Kospi Index is trading marginally lower at 1,985.54. The Hang Seng Index is trading 0.7% in positive territory at 24,007.44.
Commodities
At 06:00 SAST today, Brent crude oil fell 0.3% to trade at $68.79/bl. Yesterday, Brent crude oil fell 1.0% to settle at $69.01/bl, following news that Saudi Arabia cut its export prices of crude to the US and Asia.
Yesterday, the Illinois North Central No.2 Yellow corn spot prices rose 2.0% to $3.57/bushel. The US department of Agriculture, in its weekly sales report, indicated that corn exports from the US totalled 1.17mnt, compared with trade expectations of between 600.00k and 850.00kt.
At 06:00 SAST today, gold prices declined 0.1% to trade at $1,203.64/oz. Yesterday, gold declined 0.3% to close at $1,205.27/oz, after the ECB decided to delay fresh stimulus measures until next year.
Yesterday, copper rose 1.6% to close at $6,535.50/mt. Aluminium closed 1.4% higher at $1,994.50/mt.
Currencies
Yesterday, the South African rand strengthened against the US dollar, after data released in the US showed that the number of initial jobless claimants fell less than expected for the previous week. Later today, market participants will keep a tab on US nonfarm payrolls data along with the gold and forex reserves report in South Africa for further direction to the South African rand against the majors.
The yield on benchmark government bonds remained mixed yesterday. The yield on 2015 bond rose to 6.11% while that for the longer-dated 2026 issue declined to 7.69%.
At 06:00 SAST, the US dollar is trading 0.1% higher against the South African rand at R11.2040, while the euro is trading 0.1% higher at R13.8778.
Yesterday, the euro advanced against most of the major currencies, as the ECB kept its interest rate unchanged and the central bank President, Mario Draghi, indicated that the ECB is likely to implement further stimulus measures in the eurozone next month. Separately, the Bank of England (BoE) kept its policy stance unchanged in its yesterdayâs policy meeting. Later today, eurozone GDP and German factory orders data is expected to attract investorsâ attention.
At 06:00 SAST, the euro remained flat against the US dollar to trade at $1.2382, while it has gained 0.1% against the British pound to trade at GBP0.7910.
Economic Updates
Electricity consumption in South Africa dropped 1.0%, on an annual basis, in October, compared with a 0.3% fall reported in September.
On an annual basis, electricity production in South Africa eased 1.0% in October, following a decline of 0.1% posted in September.
The Bank of England (BoE) kept its interest rate steady at 0.50%, in line with market expectations. Also, the BoE asset purchase facility remained steady at GBP375.00bn, at par with market expectations.
The Halifax house price index in the UK rose 0.4%, on a monthly basis, in November, compared with a drop of 0.4% reported in October.
The ILO unemployment rate in France climbed to 10.4% in 3Q14 from a revised rate of 10.1% posted in 2Q14.
The European Central Bank (ECB) held its interest rate steady at 0.05%, meeting market expectations. The ECB President, Mario Draghi, at the press conference following the ECBâs policy decision, stated that policymakers would reassess the central bankâs stimulus measures early next year and then only decide whether the eurozone economy would be in need of the ECBâs additional stimulus measures. Furthermore, he hinted that the ECB would act even if it does not find unanimity among policymakers.
The seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims in the US fell to 297.00K in the week ended 29 November 2014, compared with a revised reading of 314.00K recorded in the prior week.
The seasonally adjusted Ivey Purchasing Managersâ Index (PMI) in Canada rose to 56.90 in November from a reading of 51.20 registered in October.
Takehiro Sato, a Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy board member, stated that the central bank should not commit to achieving a specific inflation rate within a specific time frame as it cannot directly control prices.
In November, the AIG performance of construction index in Australia eased to 45.40 from a reading of 53.40 reported in October.
Corporate Updates
South Africa
Pick n Pay Stores: The retailer indicated that it would donate a day’s profit to honour the anniversary of former President Nelson Mandela’s death.
Lonmin Plc: The platinum miner indicated that it has brought black ownership in the company to 26.0% following a series of Black Economic Empowerment (BEE) transactions.
Famous Brands: The company announced that it has tied up with Shoprite in the opening of a Debonairs Pizza outlet in Benguela, Angola. The first Debonairs Pizza site will open in January FY15 and will soon be followed by six further Debonairs Pizza restaurants across Angola.
Gordhan welcomes âgood compromiseâ in PPC deal: PPC plans to name its new CEO at the end of the month, says Chairman, Bheki Sibiya, after the company brokered a deal with activist shareholders aimed at averting a boardroom coup.
SABMiller says it has a head start in Colombia: Sabmillerâs strategy in Colombia was already suited to deal with new competitors, management told investors last month as the company prepares to contend with a fresh wave of competition in its single largest market.
Rio Tinto not looking at mergers to raise defences against Glencore: Global mining company, Rio Tinto, is not looking to make any major acquisition to protect itself from a potential Glencore takeover, CE Sam Walsh said at a meeting with investors on Thursday.
Transnet seals loco deal with Chinese manufacturer: Transnet and Chinese locomotives manufacturer, CSR Zhuzhou Electric Locomotive (CSR), have signed an agreement paving the way for locomotive manufacturing in South Africa.
Uber valued at $40.00bn in $1.20bn equity funding: Uber Technologies Inc. has completed the next stage of its funding, garnering $1.20bn to boost its international expansion.
Eskom accuses judge of misconduct: Eskom accused a judge, who acted as an arbitrator in a dispute with one of its contractors, of misconduct in an effort to set aside his award against it.
Bobroff finally concedes his fee agreements are illegal: After years of strong denials, personal injury law firm, Ronald Bobroff and Partners (RBP), has acknowledged that its common law contingency fee agreement was illegal.
UK and US
Kroger Co.: The retailer, in its 3Q15 results, indicated that its sales increased to $24.99bn from $22.47bn posted in the corresponding period a year ago. Its diluted EPS excluding adjustment items was reported at $0.69, better than market expectations of $0.61/share. The company sees FY15 EPS to be between $3.32 and $3.36, versus market consensus of $3.29/share.
Dollar General: In its 3Q15 results, the chain of discount retail stores stated that its net sales climbed to $4.72bn from $4.38bn reported in the similar period prior year. Its adjusted diluted EPS was registered at $0.79, lower than market expected EPS of $0.80. The company expects its FY15 total sales to increase approximately 8.0%, compared with FY14 and it plans to open approximately 730 new stores in 2015. Additionally, the company revealed that it still intends to buy Family Dollar.
Ulta Salon Cosmetics and Fragrance: The chain of beauty superstores, in its 3Q15 results, revealed that its net sales rose to $745.72mn from $618.78mn reported in the same period prior year. Its net diluted EPS was posted at $0.91, better than market anticipations of $0.84/share. The company expects its 4Q15 diluted EPS to be between $1.21 and $1.26, versus market consensus of $1.27/share.
United Natural Foods: In its 1Q15 results, the distributor of organic foods indicated that its net sales rose to $1.99bn from $1.60bn registered in the same period prior year. Its diluted net EPS climbed to $0.66 from $0.56 recorded in the similar period earlier year. In FY15, the company estimates GAAP diluted EPS in the range of approximately $2.88 to $3.01, compared with GAAP diluted EPS of $2.52 reported in the earlier year.
Sears Holdings: The retailer, in its 3Q15 results, stated that its revenue from merchandise sales and services dropped to $7.21bn from $8.27bn recorded in the corresponding period previous year. Its diluted loss per share was reported at $5.15, more than market expected loss of $3.31/share.
Five Below: In its 3Q15 results, the company revealed that its net sales advanced to $137.98mn from $110.75mn recorded in the same period preceding year. Its diluted EPS was posted at $0.06, in line with market estimates. The company sees 4Q15 GAAP EPS in the range of $0.59 to $0.62, versus market consensus of $0.63/share and 4Q15 revenue in the range of $262.00mn to $266.00mn, versus market consensus of $268.83mn. Furthermore, the company announced that its COO, Joel Anderson, has been appointed as its new CEO, effective 1 February 2015.
Finisar Corporation: The manufacturer of optical communication components, in its 2Q15 results, indicated that its revenue advanced to $296.98mn from $290.72mn registered in the corresponding period earlier year. Its diluted EPS was recorded at $0.23, worse than market anticipations of $0.25/share. The company expects 3Q15 EPS to be between $0.23 and $0.27, versus market consensus of $0.28/share.
MetLife: Media reports revealed that US regulators are close to a final decision to label MetLife systemically important.
Reynolds American: The company announced that Andrew D. Gilchrist, its Executive Vice President would be promoted to Executive Vice President and CFO, effective 1 March 2015 and the current CFO, Thomas R. Adams, plans to retire in March.
Best Buy: The company announced that it has entered into a definitive agreement to sell its Five Star business to the Jiayuan Group, a Chinese based real estate firm.
American Realty Capital Properties: The company announced that it has entered into a settlement agreement with RCS Capital Corporation to resolve their dispute over the sale of Cole Capital Partners and Cole Capital Advisors to RCS Capital, wherein the company would get a settlement amount of $60.00mn.
Starz LLC: Media reports revealed that the pay TV channel is considering alternatives to a sale after failing to find buyer.
RADA Electronic Industries: The company announced that a leading MOD has selected its MHR-based tactical radars that would help to detect and alert from short-range threats for the latterâs national alert system. The deliveries are expected to complete in FY15.
TUI Travel: The company, in its FY14 results, announced that its revenue dropped to GBP14.62bn from GBP15.05bn posted in the preceding year. However, its diluted EPS rose to 16.30p from 4.60p recorded in the previous year. The company also indicated that it is pleased with the progress in Winter 2014/15 trading and the strong start to Summer 2015 trading in the UK continues. The combination of its market leadership position, scale, focus on unique holidays distributed increasingly online and its relationship with the customer throughout their whole holiday experience continues to provide a strong basis for sustainable, profitable growth. The merger with TUI AG would strengthen and future-proof its combined Group.
DS Smith: In its 1H15 results, the company indicated that its revenue narrowed to GBP1.97bn from GBP2.08bn reported in the same period a year ago. However, its diluted EPS rose to 10.10p from 7.50p posted in the corresponding period a year ago. The company also stated that its outlook remains positive as the business continues to grow, despite economic headwinds in many of its markets. The company expects continued performance in line with its medium term financial targets.
Greene King: The pub retailer and brewer, in its 1H15 results, announced that its revenue increased to GBP614.90mn from GBP595.40mn posted in the same period preceding year. However, its diluted EPS dropped to 29.30p from 31.40p posted in the corresponding period previous year.
Betfair Group: The online betting exchange, in its 1H15 results, indicated that its revenue climbed to GBP237.60mn from GBP188.00mn recorded in the same period preceding year. Its diluted EPS jumped to 53.70p from 25.70p posted in the corresponding period a year ago. The company also stated that it continues to expect revenue from sustainable markets to grow in line with the market. The company anticipate revenue from other countries falling, on average, by between 15.0% and 25.0% per annum as a result of market exits and its strategy of not investing in these regions. The company now expects FY15 EBITDA of between GBP97.00mn and GBP103.00mn.
A.G. Barr Plc: The soft drinks seller, in its trading update, indicated that its revenue for the 18 weeks to 30 November 2014 dropped 0.6%, on a like for like basis, due to lower promotional activity. However, the company indicated that it is confident of achieving its expectations for the year, and expects further growth for the following financial year.
Reed Elsevier: The company and Reed Elsevier NV announced that it would implement an additional irrevocable, non-discretionary programme to repurchase their respective ordinary shares up to the value of GBP100.00mn in total between 1 January 2015 and 25 February 2015, ahead of its results announcement on 26 February 2015.
easyJet Plc: The company indicated that the number of passengers increased 3.1% to 4,386,296 in November 2014 from 4,255,978 posted in November 2013, while load factor rose to 89.5% from 89.0% reported in the previous year. On a rolling 12 months ending November 2014, the number of passengers climbed 6.6% to 65,204,437 from 61,182,101, while load factor rose to 90.8% to 89.3%.
BTG Plc: The specialist healthcare company indicated that it has agreed to acquire PneumRx Inc. in a deal worth up to $475.00mn. The company also stated that the acquisition would be funded in part by a cashbox placing with gross proceeds of approximately GBP150.00mn, representing approximately 5.0% of the company’s market capitalisation based on 03 December 2014 closing share price.
Hays Plc: The specialist recruitment company indicated it has acquired 80.0% of Veredus Corporation for an initial consideration of approximately $44.00mn, on a cash free/debt free basis.
Carillion Plc: The company indicated that it has been awarded support services contracts by Heathrow Airport Limited and by Barts Health NHS Trust, which together are worth approximately GBP80.00mn.
Financial Times
Unilever to run spreads business as separate unit: Unilever is to run its underperforming margarine and spreads business as a standalone unit, in a move investors said was a likely precursor to disposal.
Orange Chief says BT poised to decide on bid for EE or O2: BT should decide whether to buy a mobile operator in the UK before Christmas, says the Chief Executive of Orange, which is in talks to sell EE to the British telecoms group.
Capital Group cuts Aviva stake amid takeover of Friends Life: Capital Group, among the worldâs biggest asset managers, has sold about GBP410.0mn worth of shares in Aviva since a leak two weeks ago forced the insurer to set out preliminary terms of the sectorâs biggest deal in 15 years.
Sky cashes in lead stake in gambling unit: Sky has added GBP600.00mn in cash to its financial firepower by selling an 80.0% stake in its Sky Bet gambling business, as it plans its response to the shake-up taking place in the UK telecoms sector.
Towergateâs bankers invite ownership bids: Towergateâs bankers have invited its bondholders to take control of the heavily-indebted insurance broker, underscoring the scale of the financial difficulties facing one of Britainâs biggest private companies.
GSK drops plan to sell older drugs: GlaxoSmithKline has ditched plans for a multibillion-pound sale of some of its older medicines, halting an auction that had attracted interest from several of the worldâs largest private equity groups.
Church challenges Shell and BP over climate change: The Church of England has waded in to the debate over climate change by urging Royal Dutch Shell and BP to cut their carbon emissions and invest more in renewables, the first time it has attempted to use its position as an investor as a âforce for goodâ.
Bentley creates 300 jobs with Crewe R&D centre: Bentley is to build a research and development centre at its Crewe headquarters, creating 300 jobs as the luxury carmaker seeks to produce a new generation of models and capitalise on its global success.
Microsoft quits struggling ereader Nook: Microsoft is bailing out of Nook, the struggling ereader business owned by Barnes & Noble, in a move that clears the way for Americaâs largest bookstore chain to spin off the lossmaking division.
EUâs Hill considers shelving bank structural reforms: The EUâs new financial services Chief may withdraw a proposal next year to overhaul the structure of big European banks if it remains mired in a political stalemate.
Qataris and Brookfield raise bid for Canary Wharf owner Songbird: The Qatar Investment Authority and Brookfield Property Partners have increased their bid for control of Songbird Estates, the majority owner of east London business district Canary Wharf, to GBP2.60bn.
BTG buys US healthcare group for up to $475.00mn: BTG has reinforced its status as one of Europeâs fast-growing healthcare companies with a deal worth up to $475.00mn to buy the US maker of a device that helps tackle breathing difficulties.
Stress test fears prompt Co-op Bank to scrap bonus vote: The Co-operative Bank has cancelled an imminent shareholder vote on bonuses after conceding it will probably fail forthcoming bank stress tests.
Digital challenger bank Atom secures backing of Jim OâNeill: Jim OâNeill, the former Chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management, has joined a number of high-profile investors to back Atom, the UKâs first digital-only bank aiming to challenge high street lenders.
US oil reserves at highest since FY75: US proven oil reserves last year rose to their highest level since FY75, official figures have shown, in the latest sign of how the shale revolution has transformed the countryâs energy supply outlook.
Reckitt Benckiser looks to core of âhealth, hygiene and homeâ: Next week shareholders in RB â the former Reckitt Benckiser â will vote on ending the household groupâs dependency on its opiate-substitute business.
Mulberry falls into red amid difficult luxury market: Red was the new black at handbag maker Mulberry after a tumultuous period pushed the British luxury group into a loss in 1H15.
SoftBank buys $250.00mn stake in GrabTaxi: SoftBank has bought a $250.00mn stake in GrabTaxi, a southeast Asian Uber-style taxi-hailing app, in the latest example of the Japanese telecoms group expanding its reach into faster-growing parts of Asia.
Ryanair passenger numbers jump 22.0% as it revises up profits: Ryanair has offered further proof that trying to please customers is more profitable than annoying them as it reported that passenger numbers in November jumped 22.0% on last year to 6.35mn.
Rio Tinto: Lost 2.6% to GBP29.34, after management cut FY15 copper production guidance at a London investor day.
Ladbrokes: Rose 1.8% to GBP1.16, helped by a reheat of speculation that it is among the potential buyout targets for Playtech, up 1.3% to GBP6.46.
Global Brands Group: Beckham on board: David Beckhamâs advert for Haig Club whisky is all about the power of celebrity. Diageo knows Mr Beckham sells, which is why they hired him. Mr Beckham knows it, too. On Wednesday, Hong Kong-listed brand management company, Global Brands Group, signed a deal with the former English footballer and his business partner Simon Fuller to exploit the pulling power of celebrities. The partners will own half each of a joint venture intended to create new lifestyle brands, backed by high-profile sports and entertainment stars. The business, as yet, has no other names signed up and no products to sell, although revenues from most of Mr Beckhamâs existing endorsements are part of the deal. Yet, despite Mr Beckhamâs zeal for this âfirst of a kindâ joint venture, it is not, in fact, the first time that GBG has attempted to create celebrity-branded products. In FY10 LF USA (now renamed GBG USA) partnered with Star Branding to create MESH. Its goal is also to develop brands inspired by names such as Jennifer Lopez and Marc Anthony. GBG does not disclose earnings from individual brands, but perfumes from Ms Lopezâs stable reportedly garnered revenues of around $80.00mn in the decade to FY12. GBGâs contribution to â and revenues from â subsequent development is unclear. In FY11 BeyoncĂ© and Tina Knowlesâ Beyond Productions joined LF USA. So the deal may not be so revolutionary. Still, the involvement of Mr Beckham and Mr Fuller may give the venture more drive.
Budget airlines: load up: The largest UK-listed budget airlines, Ryanair and easyJet, have made a good business of digging away at the foundations of the flag carriers. Both eroded the price of short-haul holiday flights, forcing larger airlines to adopt similar discounting. Next easyJet, followed by Ryanair, took aim at the flag carriersâ business customers. By doing so, both found another rich vein of passengers. Thursdayâs November air traffic data, released by both companies, prompted Ryanair to upgrade its full-year earnings forecast. Share prices of both reacted positively, with Ryanair up 8.0% and easyJet up 3.0%. One reason for the delight is the suggestion of less seasonality in their businesses. November falls between holiday travel periods. Yet load factor (passengers as a proportion of available seats) grew for both â Ryanairâs by seven percentage points. This despite having 13.0% more seats available than last year. Rising load factors hint that pricing is relatively firm. The real reason to own these two airlines is their stronger return on capital, which is notable given their lack of net debt. Their returns on invested capital (equity plus net debt) have consistently remained above larger rivals. The question is whether the two can sustain these relatively high returns in the next couple of years, as their fleets expand further and they continue to take on the bigger airlines.
Unilever: I canât believe its not a spin-off: Margarine and other spreads are 7.0% of sales and although Unilever is taking market share, it is a declining market. So the unit is a drag on growth. On Thursday, Unilever said it would put most of the spreads business into a standalone unit so that a dedicated team can focus on turning it around. It is not, Unilever insists, the first step towards a full separation. And the groupâs management seems more enthusiastic about other parts of the empire. Over the past six years it has sold EUR2.80bn of turnover, mainly in foods. Pasta sauces, peanut butter and diet drinks have all been shown the door. In the same period it has bought EUR3.00bn of turnover, mainly in personal care. True, by spinning off foods Unilever would lose a cash machine that can fund growth elsewhere, but with net debt (according to Jefferies) of just 1.00 times earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation, the group has plenty of flexibility. Today the combined market capitalisation of the two companies is $100.00bn. The internal separation Unilever has proposed looks like a messy halfway house, and raises questions about how committed the company is to food in general and spreads in particular. It should dispel those questions, and be decisive.
*Published with special permission by Anchor Capital (ACG)
