'Tis the season to be jolly...cautious’

With Covid-19 spiking up in parts of the country, there are fears restrictions will be tightened, leading to further job losses and business closures. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) expects SA’s economy to have shrunk by more than 8% by the end of the year. The whole world is a mess, though, with real Gross Domestic Product forecast to shrink by even more in developed economies like Great Britain, at around 11%.

Much scarier than the percentages in macro-economic tables is the toll this pandemic is taking on livelihoods. Britain’s unemployment rate is expected to jump from about 4% to about 7%. South Africa is already in scary double-digit terrain, at anything from 30% to more than 40% of employable adults. There can be no choice for many of those left out of the job market other than to beg, borrow (informally, because no bank will lend them money) and steal.

While Covid-19 vaccines are set to be rolled out widely, it will take time for this strategy to curb the spread of the virus – which, in turn, will tempt governments to repeat patterns established earlier this year: stricter lockdowns. This has been the case in the UK, France and other European nations.

As Jane Hotz noted on Western Cape Premier Alan Winde’s Facebook page: ‘I have this morning seen 3 taxis full to capacity with no masks being worn by the driver or the occupants. Second wave and lockdown will come. It’s inevitable.’ Perhaps we should all heed the call of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, known for catchy slogans? He urged his compatriots this week: ’Tis the season to be jolly…cautious’.

‘Tis the season to be jolly…cautious’

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