Brazil and the rest of Latin America have been brutally ravaged by Covid-19. In less than two months, the region has gone from having few cases, to accounting for half of global Covid-19 deaths – and most doctors and experts think that deaths are being undercounted.
These charts from the FT (available on open access here) capture the sudden surge of Latin American cases. As you can see, the outbreak in Europe (in blue) peaked in mid-April, and the coronavirus now seems to be reasonably under control in that region. But since late April, the outbreak in Latin America (the top pink and purple bars) has exploded, with populous Brazil and Mexico leading the way.
___STEADY_PAYWALL___
The same trend can be seen in the FT’s other set of metrics (available on open access here).  The charts below show the rolling average of new Covid-19 cases and deaths since the outbreak in each country began. As you can see, Brazil now has among the most dramatic outbreaks in the world, with Mexico close on its heels.
Why has Latin America been hit so hard, and what lessons does it hold for South Africa?
For a start, there are many reasons why Latin America has seen cases and deaths grow so rapidly:
- Many people live in cities, where it is easier for the virus to get a foothold
- Cramped, densely populated, and unhygienic living conditions among the poor provide easy grounds for the virus to spread
- Patchy access to healthcare means that people are not being tested or seeking necessary medical care, making it easier for hidden clusters to emerge and worsening outcomes for the sick
- Poverty means that marginal workers cannot afford to stay home from work or avoid crowded public transport, increasing opportunities for infection
- Government budgets do not have the necessary room to finance a strong response to Covid-19
- There is less hospital capacity for the very sick, so hospitals can be quickly overwhelmed
- Many Latin Americans have conditions that make them more vulnerable to Covid-19, such as obesity, diabetes, hypertension, and heart disease and there is a large elderly population
- Conspiracy theories are running amok, preventing people from seeking healthcare and encouraging them to ignore the risks of the virus
Another reason, of course, is that autocratic leaders like Jair Bolsonaro chose to pretend that the pandemic wasn’t happening. Bolsonaro in particular – but also other leaders like Mexico’s Andrés Manuel López Obrador – downplayed the threat of the coronavirus and refused to issue lockdown orders. The result was that there were a few lockdowns in major cities but many citizens followed the presidents’ line and continued their lives as usual.
The net result is that many communities have been decimated by Covid-19 and the disease is spreading widely and rapidly. As people with underlying conditions that make them more vulnerable to Covid-19 get sick, they struggle to find care and die in great numbers.
Lessons for South Africa
What can South Africa learn from the Latin American experience?
For a start, if we aren’t careful, it is the image of our future. Like Latin America, SA has a large population of poor people who live in crowded, unhygienic conditions and who cannot afford to skip work or stay home. Like Latin America, SA also has a sizeable elderly population and a high burden of conditions like obesity, hypertension, diabetes, and heart disease that make people more vulnerable to severe Covid-19 illness.
Like Latin America, SA’s hospital system is underfunded and access to healthcare is patchy – some people are unable to get the care they need, and hospitals could quickly be overwhelmed with cases.
If Covid-19 spreads in an uncontrolled way, SA could face what Latin America is facing – widespread illness, mass deaths, and brutal economic consequences. Covid-19 has hit Latin American economies very hard, sending unemployment and poverty rates skyrocketing.
Happily, South Africa does have some things going for it. Our government has taken the virus very seriously. Although the lockdown has been lifted even though the virus is still spreading fast, measures such as physical distancing and mask-wearing are being enforced as much as possible. The government has made a real effort to test for the disease, and South African scientists are working on quicker tests and vaccines.
Although the economic consequences of the lockdown have been harsh, SA can still manage the difficult balancing act of controlling its Covid-19 outbreak while resuming economic activity. If South Africans pull together, follow government guidelines, ignore conspiracy theories, and focus on keeping themselves and one another safe, we can avoid the fate of Latin America. It is urgent that we do.
