WORLDVIEW: Lockdown is over, but in SA, Covid-19 is just getting started

South Africa's lockdown is all but over. While there is still some confusion on specifics, restrictions are lifting, and South Africans are getting back to work (where they can) and living their lives..Unfortunately, the sunset of lockdown comes at the same time as the coronavirus outbreak in South Africa is just catching its stride. Biznews has some excellent charts available to track the pandemic, but I want to focus on some comparative information available for free on the Financial Times website. The chart below was created on the 18th of June..___STEADY_PAYWALL___.There are a few points to note. First, the chart shows the shape of the trajectory of each country's epidemic over time, using periods of time and not a particular set of calendar dates. This means you can compare epidemics like Italy's which happened early in the year to ones like Brazil's, which started a little later..The curve shows how quickly new cases are growing, and reflects the rolling seven-day average number of new cases (not cumulative cases), so it smooths out the random spikes that we often see to give a clearer picture of the direction of travel..This second chart shows the same data adjusted for population – it shows the numbers per million population rather than the raw data. Here, it should be even clearer just how quickly the virus is spreading in South Africa..One thing should be crystal clear here. South Africa has not flattened its curve. In fact, we are experiencing a near exponential growth in new cases. On our current trajectory, we can expect to hit 20,000 new cases a day at some point in late July or early August. The early lockdown bought us time – you can clearly see the dip in new cases early on in the pandemic. But it was short-lived; unsurprising considering how impossible it is for residents of informal settlements to do anything resembling a lockdown..These next two charts show the seven-day rolling average of new deaths (not cumulative deaths) in absolute numbers and adjusted for population. Again, we are experiencing exponential growth in deaths. As our case count grows, so will our daily death toll, especially since hospital capacity in South Africa is limited..As always with Covid-19, we have to be aware that the data are probably not perfect. There is a risk that South Africa is undercounting its cases and deaths – while SA is testing more people than any other African government, our testing is limited compared to powerhouse testing nations in Asia. As for deaths, the collection of that information is relatively slow and there is a risk of undercounting, especially for people who die at home rather than in the hospital..It's also worth pointing out that mortality in South Africa has actually fallen during the pandemic – mostly thanks to the fact that fewer people are driving on our absolutely deadly roads and fewer incidents of violent murders (although domestic violence is skyrocketing)..All of this is to say that SA is not out of the Covid-19 woods. Even though lockdown is pretty much over, the virus is actually a much more potent threat – on an individual basis – than it was when lockdown began..Community spread is happening. A family I know was infected despite a fairly strict set of lockdown practices. The cold, dry air of Johannesburg right now is an ideal environment for viruses like the coronavirus to thrive. As people start to move and travel more, opportunities for infection will increase..So, as you head back outside, please take care. After so many months, it's hard to remain alert and vigilant. That's very natural – we can't remain in a state of high alert forever. But please do not imagine that the end of lockdown means the end of the Covid-19 threat. In point of fact, you have never been more at risk of Covid-19 than you are right now as community spread has clearly taken hold in SA..Wash your hands. Wear your mask. Avoid large gatherings and crowded environments. Be especially vigilant when you're around older or vulnerable people. We need to get the economy moving again – I'm not denying that. And there is always a risk when you step out your front door (and, for that matter, when you're behind it). But the danger is still very real and you need to careful.

WORLDVIEW: Lockdown is over, but in SA, Covid-19 is just getting started

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