SA future? Nigerian woes as “black babies” growing faster than its economy

There should be a campaign against quoting bald GDP growth figures. Because this broad economic measure is meaningless unless you include population expansion. You’re going backwards when a pie expands by less than the number of new mouths to feed. The increase in GDP per capita is what really matters – a ratio which highlights what is happening to the average slice of citizens. If the population expands faster than the economy, poverty rises. Poor economic management in South Africa has led to GDP per capita (in US Dollars) falling for five straight years. Another car crash is in prospect for 2016 with population expanding at twice the rate (1.3%) of GDP growth (0.6%). As progressive nations around the world keep proving, beating poverty requires a two pronged approach. One half of which is to remove the incentive for bigger families. China took this to a social engineering extreme with its strictly applied One Child policy, so obsessed were its mandarins with this key matrix. EFF Leader Julius Malema’s call that over the weekend that his followers should produce more “black babies” illustrates an alarming level of ignorance about economic realities. A visit to Nigeria would help. As this excellent analysis below explains, a 3% population growth rate has amplified Nigerian woes. With the economy stuttering, almost three quarters of all Nigerians now have to get by on less than $1 a day. Clearly, the last thing Nigeria needs is more babies. Black or any other colour. Ditto South Africa. – Alec Hogg                 

By Ulf Laessing

LAGOS, April 20 (Reuters) – Waiting at a crowded bus stop for a ride to work, Osheme Antoine dreams of raising a big family one day. Such dreams, shared by millions, mean Nigeria’s bus queues are likely to get even longer in decades to come.

President Muhammadu Buhari’s budget plan for this year boosts investment in new roads, railways and power supply in the hope of dragging his nation of 188 million out of deep poverty.

People sit atop a train in Agege district in Nigeria's commercial capital Lagos April 12, 2016.  REUTERS/Akintunde Akinleye
People sit atop a train in Agege district in Nigeria’s commercial capital Lagos April 12, 2016. REUTERS/Akintunde Akinleye

But in Lagos, home to 23 million, spending is quickly outpaced by the growth of the city’s population by thousands every day, from both a high birthrate and the migration of people from rural areas looking for work.

Some 1.2 million commuters head into Lagos each day. The three connecting bridges from the vast slum districts on the mainland are jammed until late morning.

“There are too many unemployed people,” said Antoine. But while complaining about the crowds, the 37-year-old wants plenty of children himself.

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“My parents had 12 so don’t expect me to go for two children only, but rather six or seven,” he said.

Buhari plans capital expenditure of $9 billion this year, three times more than in 2015. But with the national population growing annually by 3 percent, Lagos alone needs to spend $50 billion in the next five years, said Ashade Jeremiah, Lagos state commissioner for budget and planning.

“But our (2016) budget is just 3 billion,” he said.

UNEMPLOYED

The country will have 300 million people by 2030, according to the U.N., and 20 years later it will be the world’s third most populous nation after China and India, with 400 million.

To cope Nigeria would need to double the numbers of schools, hospitals and roads, said Osaretin Adonri, Assistant Representative at the U.N. Population Fund in Nigeria.

The country’s big oil revenues have enriched only an elite, but account for 70 percent of state revenue. Government income crashed by around half in 2015 because of the collapse in world crude prices and looks unlikely to recover much soon, analysts say.

Analysts say Nigeria’s economy would need to grow at double-digit rates for years to provide sufficient jobs. But for 2015, the International Monetary Fund expects it to slow to 2.3 percent after 2.8 last year.

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Some unemployed are easy recruits for Boko Haram, fighting a violent campaign to set up an Islamic state in the northeast.

“We have a pool of young persons that are probably not very educated and those who are educated do not have jobs,” said Adonri. “They become a ready army for the kind of insurgencies and the disturbances we are seeing in parts of the country.”

Many of the poor head for Europe, travelling overland to Libya from where smugglers ship them to Italy.

The European Union saw the number of Nigerian asylum seekers triple last year compared to 2014. Most say they are fleeing Boko Haram but officials describe many as economic migrants.

SURVIVAL

Global banks say the country is a potentially huge market for everything from TV sets to textiles and cars.

But for most Nigerians life is about mere survival, as 70 percent live on $1 a day or less.

Adding to the pressure on Lagos, Boko Haram is driving people south.

Buhari’s predecessor Goodluck Jonathan, a Christian, called for unspecified birth control policies but abandoned the idea amid public outcry. Buhari, a Muslim, has steered clear of the subject.

Read also: Did Nigerian Central Bank miss a trick? Flirts with economic disaster.

The population issue is inflamed by cultural rivalries. The country is divided between Christians, mainly in the south, and Muslims in the north. Each community often says it makes up the majority.

Last month, the governor of the northern Muslim state of Borno said 70 percent of Nigerians would be Muslims in a few years – a claim dismissed by southerners.

The U.N. Population Fund is trying to improve health facilities in the hope that reducing infant mortality rates will lead women to have fewer children.

“There should be a kind of family planning in Nigeria because jobless people keep having children,” said Amaka Roselin, a Christian mother of one child, after getting off her bus from the mainland with a swarm of other commuters.

But the saleswoman still wants more children herself: “As many as God can give me,” she said.

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