Motsepe’s Magic strikes not once, not twice but thrice – Daily Newsletter

Published on:

16 May 2014, 7:06 am

Hi there,

Yesterday was big for CNBC Africa. Our TV broadcast partner launched its new high-tech studio at the JSE. I was privileged to be a part of it, co-hosting an extended Power Lunch show and a pre-recorded interview with Sanlam CEO Johan van Zyl. It's been a privilege to partner with the continental broadcaster these past 11 months. Am looking forward to years of the same. As we are literally on opposite sides of a (soundproofed) wall, Biznews.com's offices could hardly be better located.

Despite pre-show jitters to be expected ahead of "go live" on such a major project, the programming ran smoothly, testament to our partner's thorough planning. Indeed, the only time I felt tension was ahead of the interview with Van Zyl. The day before we'd had a feisty interview when, from Cape Town, I tackled him on the pricing of Sanlam's BEE deal from which billionaire Patrice Motsepe reaped a further R8bn profit. So he may well have been prickly when we met in person a day later. He wasn't.

Van Zyl charmingly explained how pricing of the transaction (765c a share) stretched back six months before it kicking in on January 1 2004 (880c). Reminding me how, in mid 2003, the Sanlam price actually tanked to 600c on the back of great uncertainty around the future of life assurers. It proved to be the worst of times for the sector, the trough for a share price that has risen almost tenfold in the next decade. The third time in his career that Motsepe's timing was impeccable.

His initial bonanza came in the late 1990s at the very bottom of the bullion cycle when Motsepe picked up the high cost mines Anglogold was shedding. Next was the deal with Anglovaal's high quality minerals operations just months before the commodity cycle turned upwards. You can't plan that. Proving that in business, luck can be a far better associate than skill. If Nassim Taleb were today penning Fooled By Randomness, he'd surely add Magical Motsepe to his long list of examples.

Best,

Alec