Africa’s strategy for Trump 2.0? Crafting a deal he can’t refuse: Justice Malala

Africa must prepare for the potential challenges and opportunities of a Trump presidency. Rather than react passively, leaders should craft a proactive strategy that leverages the continent's abundant resources and youthful population to redefine its relationship with the U.S. With AGOA's future uncertain, Africa can push for a mutually beneficial deal, emphasizing critical minerals and economic potential. A united approach, including the African Continental Free Trade Agreement, will strengthen the region's position..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox at 5:30am weekdays. Register here..The seventh BizNews Conference, BNC#7, is to be held in Hermanus from March 11 to 13, 2025. The 2025 BizNews Conference is designed to provide an excellent opportunity for members of the BizNews community to interact directly with the keynote speakers, old (and new) friends from previous BNC events – and to interact with members of the BizNews team. Register for BNC#7 here. .By Justice Malala ___STEADY_PAYWALL___.Like their counterparts around the globe, African leaders and investors are trying to figure out what impact Donald Trump's return to the White House will have on their continent. Canada, Mexico and China are already being roiled by his threat to impose 25% tariffs on all products from these countries on his first day in office..Trying to please, placate or demonize the US president elect, as most of the world is doing, would be the wrong strategic move for the continent, one echoing the paternalism that has characterized relations between Africa and the big global powers for decades. The result is always the same: The power imbalance leads to resentment, and the accords collapse..Africa should instead be asking what impact it can have on Trump — and how it can make the relationship benefit the region. Leaders should present him with a new deal..Concerns about a second Trump administration arise from his disdain for the continent (he referred to some African nations as "s***hole countries" in 2018) and his protectionist plans that could imperil the African Growth and Opportunity Act (which provides duty-free access to the US for more than 1,800 products from 32 African countries). The 24-year-old AGOA expires in September 2025. Given Trump's America First policy, its reauthorization is not assured..Brutally put, Africa is just not a priority for Trump, as Elizabeth Sidiropoulos, chief executive of the South African Institute of International Affairs, has pointed out. And "where it is [a priority], it's likely to be transactional — for example, critical minerals access.".Africa has these resources — and much else — in abundance. It holds 85% of the world's manganese, 80% of the world's platinum and chromium, 47% of cobalt, 21% of graphite, 6% of copper and much more. It is blessed with a young population that is key to future global consumption and economic growth, and it has great potential for clean-energy generation. This is Africa's trump card. Now it should set its own terms..Read more: Ex-Trump top diplomat calls for tough stand on South Africa's 'foreign policy hypocrisy'.Trump regards himself as a dealmaker, even if others don't. He also wants to be seen as a hero. He is so desperate for such validation he is prepared to burnish his reputation with false stories of heroic acts. For example, two weeks before his November election victory, he claimed he had donated a jet for Nelson Mandela to fly to the US soon after his release in 1990. It was a fabrication — Mandela's supporters in the US paid $130,000 for the chartered plane from Trump's now-collapsed airline..So, what does a possible deal look like? Who should punt it?.The Biden administration has already built a solid relationship with Kenya's President William Ruto and the country's business elite. One of Joe Biden's great successes has been the construction of the Lobito Corridor with Angola's president, João Lourenco, who says he is ready to do business with Trump. And finally, South Africa's president Cyril Ramaphosa will be sharing the G20 stage with Trump, who will take over the body's chair after South Africa's one-year tenure in December 2025. Ramaphosa also has the ear of Elon Musk, Trump's "first buddy.".The US president-elect needs to be sensitized to the fact that if he fails to reauthorize AGOA, it would greatly diminish America's ability to counter his nemesis China, and to a lesser extent Russia, in one of the world's most strategically important regions. The US is already losing friends and influence to Russia and China on the continent. Trump needs to understand that staying friends with Africa makes more sense than not..As American trade expert Daniel Runde told a congressional committee in June, the US has failed to see Africa as an opportunity: "The Chinese Communist Party sees Africa as a win-win opportunity. Unfortunately, much of our partnership with Africa to date, has been oriented around foreign assistance… We need an updated partnership… There'll be a party in Moscow; there'll be a party in Beijing, if we don't reauthorize [AGOA].".Trump also needs to believe he is ushering in a new vision for US relations with Africa — and he needs to be able to say it in a post on Truth Social. The entire Republican platform document currently says nothing about the continent. Academic J. Peter Pham, who served in the last Trump administration as US Special Envoy for the Sahel Region in 2020-2021, said in November in a Voice of America interview that in the US under Trump "a lot of the lecturing and moralizing that has contributed to turning many countries in Africa away from the US" will be "replaced by a more pragmatic approach that listens, looks at national interests on both sides and balances it.".That's the beginning of a deal. Africa must put it on the table and make it advantageous to its citizens..The continent needs to remind Trump and some among its own cohort of leaders that dealmakers negotiate. Whatever talk about trade or diplomatic relations might be coming from the US, it must be taken as an opening gambit. In a column published Nov. 15 by Fox News, Trump's Treasury Secretary pick Scott Bessent wrote that tariffs were a "negotiating tool with our trading partners." But why sit back and wait for proposals from Bessent or Trump on how trade with Africa will work? It's better to give them some ideas and make a deal that benefits Africa..In the meantime, continental leaders will hopefully fire up implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Agreement — which aims to create a single market for goods and services — and other economic growth measures that would make the region less reliant on foreign powers. And less jittery about a new US leader..Read also:.🔒 FT: Where Trump could surprise on the upside. Brilliant.🔒 FT's Jemima Kelly: The Trump vibe shift was there for all to seeKevin Lings on markets, monetary policy, and geopolitical risks.© 2024 Bloomberg L.P.

Africa’s strategy for Trump 2.0? Crafting a deal he can’t refuse: Justice Malala

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