Putin secures another strategic ally on SA's back porch

Key topics:Madagascar strengthens ties with Russia after October coup.Russian aid boosts military, trade, and mining access.Strategic island key for oil, cobalt, and rare earths..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox every morning on weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa's bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here..By Antony Sguazzin and Eric Laperozy.At a barracks near Madagascar’s main airport, in front of politicians, diplomats and fellow soldiers, Colonel Michael Randrianirina welcomed the shipment of combat helicopters, trucks and rice from a loyal ally.“I would especially like to thank my brother, Russian President Vladimir Putin, for these donations,” said Randrianirina, who’s been in charge of the island nation since a coup in October. “This marks the continuation of the long-standing fraternal relations between Madagascar and Russia. We will revive and strengthen them.”The event took place the day before the US and Israel launched their attack on Iran and barely resonated outside Madagascar. Yet it also marked another foothold for Putin as he seeks to broaden the Kremlin’s influence on the continent and take advantage of geopolitical turmoil.The change in Madagascar’s leadership has presented new opportunities for access to a country that holds valuable metal and mineral deposits and lies on an oil traffic route. Chaos in the energy market and surging prices, meanwhile, have given Russia’s finances a boost after four years of war on Ukraine drained resources and hurt its economy. .Read more:.The Economist: Close to home, Gen Z revolution or military coup in Madagascar?.Madagascar’s Toamasina port is strategically near an Indian Ocean shipping channel next to gas-rich Mozambique. Almost a third of the world’s crude passes through it. The abandoned Antsiranana naval base, formerly known as Diego Suarez, sits at the northern tip of the island, awaiting revival. With US President Donald Trump embroiled in war in the Middle East, the timing of the deepening ties between Moscow and Madagascar is fortuitous, according to Shawn Duthie, the head of risk analysis for southern Africa at consulting firm Control Risks.“Russia didn’t shape events around Iran, but it’s adept at exploiting moments when Western attention is diverted,” said Duthie, who runs the business intelligence practice for the region. “The current disruption to global shipping only reinforces the strategic value of the Mozambique Channel.”The Kremlin moved rapidly to build relations with the new administration in Madagascar after the military stepped in following a popular uprising over water and power shortages that caused President Andry Rajoelina to flee in a French military plane.First, Russia dispatched 40 soldiers and crates of weapons to ensure the security of Randrianirina. It then followed that up with a visit by officials from Russia’s state-owned Promsvyazbank — the key bank for the Russian defense industry — to boost trade, the Paris-based publication Africa Intelligence reported.Then the new president broke with decades of tradition for his first overseas trip by visiting Putin in February rather than France, Madagascar’s former colonial master and a key trade partner.“I can now say that Madagascar is one of our important partners in Africa,” Putin said at the meeting between the two leaders. “We see that your government is taking significant steps to improve the overall situation in the country. We have good prospects for further strengthening bilateral ties in the political sphere.”Last week, the island received another shipment of Russian arms and equipment, this time a consignment of armored vehicles, small arms, ammunition and uniforms. The assistance will also include training for senior Malagasy military officials both at home and in Russia.A new pro-Russia political party was also launched. It’s the political wing of an organization in Madagascar called Friends of Russia and is promoting closer relations with Russia and the BRICS group of nations, according to African Initiative, a state-run Russian news agency.The developments have alarmed Putin’s adversaries because of the island’s location. “Russia seeks to exploit the opportunities opened up by the transition,” according to a note distributed among Western diplomats and seen by Bloomberg. “The situation in Madagascar directly involves the stability of a major geostrategic space linking Africa to the Indo-Pacific.”Russia’s relations with Africa run deep. During the Cold War, the Soviet Union supported decolonialization while many African leaders went there for military training or to study. More recently, Moscow has been flexing its soft power muscle in areas such as religion, fishing and grain shipments while developing disinformation networks.Lacking the money and resources of rivals such as China or the European Union, Russia has focused on more fragile states, offering military equipment, support and, in some cases, opened the door for its mining companies. Initially through the Wagner mercenary operation, Russia has supported the government against rebels in Central African Republic since 2018, securing access to diamond and gold operations..Madagascar is no different. The island nation of about 30 million people has a history of coups and sudden changes of government. Its top prosecutor said on April 2 a plot to assassinate President Randrianirina was foiled, and one of the main organizers was a fellow army colonel. “The new regime feels quite vulnerable,” said Thierry Vircoulon, coordinator of the Observatory of Central and Southern Africa at the French Institute of International Relations “They come with a deal — security vs political support — and with mining assets will see what they can get.”Another area is energy. Before the war on Iran triggered the current market turmoil, liquefied natural gas was on Russia’s radar. A July 2025 report by the Center for African Studies at the National Research University Higher School of Economics in Moscow identified LNG supplies to South Africa as a potential new market. They would arrive via the Mozambique channel.Russia and Madagascar also share interest in the production of cobalt and both hold significant reserves of rare earth metals.Madagascar is the world’s fourth-biggest producer of the key battery material cobalt and lags only China in terms of output of graphite, also used in batteries as well as furnace linings. Its reserves of rare earths are the world’s eighth largest, according to the US Geological Survey. It’s not the first time Russia has tried to establish a strong presence in Madagascar. During the 2018 election, Russian operatives published a newspaper, paid young people to attend rallies and journalists to write favorable articles as they tried to ensure the reelection of President Hery Rajaonarimampianina, the New York Times reported in 2019. He finished third and Rajoelina ultimately won.The effort burned bridges between Moscow and Madagascar, according to Will Brown, a senior policy fellow with the Africa program at the European Council on Foreign Relations. But this time around Russia has already won allies in the country and is building influence. National Assembly Speaker Siteny Randrianasoloniaiko was first to announce the Russian aid and in November visited Moscow. He then declared that Russia had promised discounted fuel to ease power shortages on the island. On a recent visit to France, he told members of the Malagasy diaspora that existing oil and gas exploration agreements would be reviewed amid interest from Russian and Qatari companies. For President Randrianirina, the goal is a “multidirectional” foreign policy to forge both new partnerships and strengthen old ones. He followed his trip last month to see Putin with a visit to French President Emmanuel Macron.Having set a two-year deadline for elections following the coup, Randrianirina is seeking a shield against pressure from France and the European Union to restore democracy, analysts said. France is Madagascar’s biggest trade partner after China, while Russia doesn’t feature in the top 20. But new partners dilute the influence of Europe..Read more:.Russian relationship isn’t helping Iran, but definitely boosted North Korea.Sergei Vershinin, Russia’s former deputy foreign minister and now special ambassador to Turkey, told RTVI TV in December that it wasn’t a “classic coup” and any steps toward easing socio-economic tension would be supported by Moscow.“For Madagascar, it’s a hedge against France and the EU to push them for more concessions,” said Duthie, the risk analyst. “If they have Russia in the back pocket, the EU hasn’t got the same stranglehold on them.”.© 2026 Bloomberg L.P.

Putin secures another strategic ally on SA's back porch

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