Worst El Niño ever recorded may be coming — and Southern Africa in the crosshairs

Hundreds of years ago Peruvian fishermen noticed that, every few years, the anchovies in the equatorial Pacific ocean would vanish. Since the disappearances happened around Christmastime, they named the event after el niño Jesus—“the Christ child”..The Economist.From The Economist, published under licence. The original article can be found on www.economist.com© 2025 The Economist Newspaper Limited. All rights reserved..These days the phenomenon, known simply as El Niño, is recognised as a recurring climatic pattern that alters the weather all over the world. It causes droughts in some places, heavy rain in others, heatwaves, wildfires and a general warming of the planet. On June 11th the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, an arm of the American government, announced that a new El Niño had begun. And this one could be a whopper.El Niño is driven by a shift in the winds above the equatorial Pacific, which draws a band of warmer-than-average surface water into the region. The strength of any particular El Niño is measured by how much warmer the water gets. Anything above a 2°C rise over the long-run average is considered strong. Forecasts from most of the world’s modellers for the rest of this year and the first couple of months of 2027 suggest a rise in sea-surface temperatures of more than 2.5°C—and perhaps even more than 3°C. That would be without precedent in the 75 years for which scientists have been keeping records. (The current record is held by the 1982-83 El Niño, when water temperatures rose 2.5°C.)Anchovies prefer cooler water, which is why they decamp southwards during an El Niño. But the effects are not just felt by Peruvian fishermen. The sheer size of the Pacific, and the interconnectedness of the world’s weather systems, means that each El Niño causes a vast redistribution of heat and moisture across the planet..One result is to make the world warmer. El Niño is not caused by climate change. But the two phenomena amplify each others’ effects (see chart). A strong El Niño in 1997-1998 made 1998 the hottest year ever recorded at the time, with average temperatures nearly 1°C above pre-industrial levels. Following another strong El Niño in 2015-2016, the record was broken again, with temperatures in 2016 up more than 1°C. The current record holder is 2024, when temperatures were 1.6°C higher than the pre-industrial average. Climate modellers think 2027 could be hotter still..When it comes to countries and continents, El Niño’s effects are more variable (see map). The El Niños of 1997-1998 and 2015-16 caused havoc in eastern and southern Africa, Central America and Oceania. Droughts parched crops and pasturelands, leaving millions hungry and many forced to migrate in search of food.Similarly baleful effects are possible this time, too. On June 9th the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), an arm of the UN, warned that people living in southern Africa and the Sahel—a semi-arid ribbon of land along the southern borders of the Sahara desert—are particularly at risk. The previous El Niño in 2023-2024, when water temperatures peaked at 1.5°C above normal, was associated with the worst drought in more than a century in southern Africa..Read more:. La Niña expected later this year, likely to mitigate agricultural impacts of El Niño.In east Africa, the FAO warned that Somalia could be hit by a double-whammy of a drought until October followed by heavy rain until December. That is less reassuring than it sounds: instead of providing relief, excessive rainfall after a prolonged drought can cause floods, because rain cannot sink into parched soil. Central America, the Caribbean and parts of Asia are also at risk of drought..Many of these regions are already suffering as a result of wars and pre-existing hunger. The Iran war, and the subsequent blocking of the Strait of Hormuz, has made fertiliser scarce just as many farmers need it for their next crop cycles (its supposed re-opening, announced on June 14th by Donald Trump, America’s president, will come too late). The European Commission has warned of humanitarian disasters in African countries including Sudan, Somalia, South Sudan and Chad, as well as Ecuador, Venezuela and Haiti in the Americas. There are ways to blunt the impact: planting drought-tolerant seeds, for instance, or storing fodder and water for livestock. But the time to start is now..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox every morning on weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa's bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here.

Worst El Niño ever recorded may be coming — and Southern Africa in the crosshairs

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