BN Daybreak Wed 18 Mar - Oil spikes on Iran's strikes; Mulder on coalitions; US missile defences falling fast

Welcome to BizNews Daybreak with Alec Hogg for Wednesday, March 18, 2026. In today’s episode, we dive into the shifting tectonic plates of global geopolitics, escalating tensions in the Middle East, and the hard realities of coalition governance in South Africa.Today's Top Stories:Middle East Tensions & Market Impact: Crude oil surges past $96 a barrel after Israel assassinates two senior Iranian security officials, including security chief Ali Larijani.SA’s Political Future: Longest-serving MP Corné Mulder (FF+) delivers a hard truth about the ANC's inability to self-correct and explains why coalition governments are the unavoidable new reality for South Africa.Global Security Warning: Tom Karako from CSIS warns that the US is rapidly depleting its missile defence interceptors, potentially leaving the Pacific and Taiwan vulnerable to Chinese expansionism.Tech & Domestic Markets: Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang announces a renewed push to supply AI chips to China. Locally, the Rand strengthens to R16.66 against the Dollar, while Sasol shares jump 5% on the JSE.US Hegemony: Rob Hersov offers a sobering reality check on global power dynamics, arguing that the US remains the ultimate centre of the geopolitical chessboard..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox at 5:30am weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa’s bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here..Watch here.Listen here.BizNews Reporter.Middle East crisis: A vacuum of leadership?The most pressing news comes from the intensifying conflict between Israel, the US, and Iran. Israel confirmed the assassination of Ali Larijani, a veteran security chief and the de facto public face of the Iranian regime. This follows the death of Supreme Leader Khamenei on 28 February. While Khamenei was officially succeeded by his son, Mojtaba, the younger leader has not been seen in public, leading President Trump to speculate that he may no longer be alive. The strategic goal of the US and Israel is to degrade Iran’s ballistic and nuclear capabilities while creating "space" for the Iranian people to topple the regime. However, this strategy carries immense risks: Energy Security: Crude oil rose 2.9% to $96.21 as Iran continues to attack energy infrastructure. The Strait of Hormuz: President Trump has criticised NATO allies for their refusal to help reopen this vital shipping lane. FT’s Gideon Rachman notes that allies feel Trump is asking them to undertake a hazardous mission to fix a crisis he provoked without consultation. Missile Defense Depletion: Tom Carrico of the CSIS warned that the US is "vaporizing" its inventory of missile interceptors. By moving Patriot systems from Asia to the Middle East, the US may be inadvertently tempting Chinese adventurism in the Pacific..Market reactions and corporate shiftsDespite the "jangling nerves" caused by Middle East developments, markets showed resilience: Airlines: The S&P 500 passenger airline subindex rose 4.4% despite jet fuel prices being 50% higher than in late February. Tech: Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang announced the company is restarting manufacturing for AI chip customers in China, navigating around previous US export restrictions. South African Stocks: The rand held steady at R16.66/$. On the JSE, Sasol jumped 5% to R205, while Webuycars continued its strong run, reaching nearly R46..The South African front: Coalitions and accountabilityDomestically, the focus remains on the upcoming November elections. Veteran MP Corné Mulder argued that coalition governments are the "new reality" for South Africa, as it is unlikely any single party will achieve a majority. Mulder insisted that for these to work, the largest party must remain humble, as they still require partners to reach a 50% plus one majority.On the issue of corruption, security strategist Andy Mashaile addressed allegations made by KZN Police Chief Mkhwanazi. Mashaile expects a "program of action" from President Ramaphosa following upcoming reports in May and August, potentially leading to the removal of unfit cabinet members and arrests related to the killing of whistleblowers.Geopolitical alignmentRob Hersov delivered a characteristically blunt keynote, arguing that South Africa must abandon its "unaligned" stance. He asserted that the West is winning the global power struggle, possessing the deepest capital markets and most credible militaries. Hersov maintains that South Africa’s prosperity depends on aligning with the "Judeo-Christian West" rather than current ANC policies.

BN Daybreak Wed 18 Mar - Oil spikes on Iran's strikes; Mulder on coalitions; US missile defences falling fast

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