BN Daybreak Thur 26 Mar - Plan to halve next week's petrol hike; Saints embrace Warriner; Zim abuse escalates

In this edition of BizNews Daybreak, Alec Hogg explores the DA's radical proposal to cut the fuel levy by 50%. Finance spokesperson Dr. Mark Burke details how to cover the resulting R6.5 billion shortfall without raising taxes or increasing debt.Plus, we cover the surprising developments surrounding the Craig Warriner saga, unrest over the proposed lifetime presidency in Zimbabwe, and Wall Street's unexpected resilience..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox at 5:30am weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa’s bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here..Watch here.Listen here.Edited transcript of today's BizNews Daybreak.00:00:25:11 - 00:00:44:10 Those two levies combined add to about six rand 35 per litre and a 50% reduction in each would come to a three rand 17 reduction at the pump. 00:00:44:12 - 00:01:11:00 Some good news at last. Perhaps. Anyway, from Dr Mark Burke. He is the DA spokesman on finance, and he's gunning for a cut in the petrol price when the increase comes around next week. And without the cut that the DA has recommended, it'll be as high as six rand a litre for petrol, nine rand, perhaps even ten rand a litre for diesel. 00:01:11:02 - 00:01:41:08 And that's already continuing with a subsidy because the under-recovery at the moment, according to DME, that's the state, is seven rand 38 on petrol and 15 rand on diesel. Something has to be done to stop this economy hitting a brick wall. And Mark Burke reckons he's got the answer to it. We'll have more on that later in the programme. 00:01:41:10 - 00:02:05:19 Good morning and welcome to the BizNews Daybreak. Today's Thursday, the 26th of March, 2026. I'm Alec Hogg, and let's kick off with our partners at Bloomberg News now for the very freshest news, a lot of which is still focusing on the war in Iran, which goes into day 27 today. 00:02:05:21 - 00:02:33:04 Peace talks with Iran are ongoing, despite Tehran publicly rejecting American overtures and issuing fresh conditions to end the conflict. Rosemary Kelanic is the director of the Middle East programme at Defense Priorities. Trump's ceasefire plans are not a ceasefire, right? These are, you know, Iran gave these counter-proposals that are ceasefire proposals. What needs to happen for hostilities to cease? 00:02:33:06 - 00:03:09:09 The US is trying to negotiate a whole comprehensive package, which most countries don't agree to do in the middle of a war, because if they did, it would just incentivise other countries attacking them. So the US and Iran are just—they're operating on totally different levels here. And the US side is pretty disconnected from reality. Rosemary Kelanic, director of the Middle East programme at Defense Priorities. The Iranian parliament is said to be working on a draft bill to charge a fee in exchange for providing security to ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. 00:03:09:11 - 00:03:45:01 That's according to the semi-official Fars news agency. The agency says the plan is expected to be finalised next week. President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping will be holding their summit in Beijing on May 14th through the 15th, following a delay due to the war with Iran. Here's Bloomberg's Mario Parker asking White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt about the Iran war timeline, just given that the president postponed his original trip to China because of the war, should we infer that the war will be wound down and concluded by the time of that May 14th-15th visit? 00:03:45:06 - 00:04:12:14 Again, as I've said, we've always estimated approximately 4 to 6 weeks. So you could do the math on that, Mario. But we do look forward—I know the president looks forward to going to China on May 14th and 15th. Leavitt also went on to say that Xi will visit Washington on a date later this year. President Trump has named several tech industry titans to a new council that will focus on artificial intelligence policy and other science-related issues. 00:04:12:19 - 00:04:40:18 And with more, here is Bloomberg's Denise Pellegrini. President Trump has appointed Mark Zuckerberg of Meta Platforms, venture capitalist Marc Andreessen, Oracle's Larry Ellison and Nvidia's Jensen Huang to a new Presidential Technology Council that will focus on AI policy and other science-related issues. The President's Council of Advisors on Science and Tech will be chaired by David Sacks, the venture capitalist now serving as Trump's AI and crypto czar, along with White House science and tech policy director Michael Kratsios. 00:04:40:21 - 00:05:06:18 The council is the latest indicator of the nexus between Silicon Valley and Trump's second administration as industry leaders embrace a push to lower regulatory and tax burdens and boost US standing in cutting-edge fields. In New York, Denise Pellegrini, Bloomberg Radio. It was an up day for Wall Street; the Dow, the S&P and Nasdaq all advancing. Ted Nield is chief investment officer at Aggression Partners, and he says he is surprised by the market's resilience today. 00:05:06:19 - 00:05:27:11 We sit here to date within a stone's throw of being flat, which is just absolutely remarkable. And in terms of resilience, I know we're going up and down by a couple of percentage points and a lot of volatility, but it really is amazingly resilient. The S&P 500 index gained 5/10 of 1% to wrap up the Wednesday session at 6591. 00:05:27:13 - 00:05:54:18 The Dow up 7/10 of 1%, higher by 305 points. Nasdaq up 8/10 of 1%. Did you get that on the tech council? Yeah. You've got Mark Zuckerberg, the founder of Meta. He's the reason why we got Facebook and WhatsApp. Larry Ellison from Oracle, one of the richest men in the world, whose son is in the process of buying Disney. 00:05:54:19 - 00:06:20:08 He owns or runs Paramount. And Jensen Huang, who runs Nvidia—the most valuable company in the world. And that panel is chaired by David Sacks, a South African. One of our exports; another one of our exports has gone to the United States. He's going to be telling these guys what to do. 00:06:20:10 - 00:06:45:08 That is the standing that he has. My goodness. But our exports are doing well around the world. It's not just when you think of Elon Musk, the richest man in the world, being a South African. Here's another one, David Sacks, who's also very, very highly regarded in the tech industry globally. And here he is chairing Trump's tech council. 00:06:45:08 - 00:06:50:19 Man, you've got to be proud of your country, don't you? Well, let's get back to the war now. 00:06:50:23 - 00:07:16:20 Also from Bloomberg is the senior geo-economist, and his name is Adam Posen. And he gave some insights on the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast on why the markets are so positive. Despite many of the big guns coming out, the Wall Street titans coming out and saying these markets are a little stronger than they should be. 00:07:20:08 - 00:07:44:08 So it certainly seems that the markets are moving on the vibes of the president and the president alone, notwithstanding the fact that it is probably unfair to judge exclusively on how the Iranians are responding publicly to these conversations. Tell us why. Because the reality is the Iranians have a lot of constituencies they have to handle, particularly with a hardline leadership that is taking control. 00:07:44:08 - 00:08:01:08 They have to be very careful as to how they articulate the next steps in this conflict. On one hand, we're absolutely right, and this narrative we've talked about here at Bloomberg a lot is that the Iranians feel more empowered now than they have at any point during the war. They feel like the pressure is building on the United States, not on them. 00:08:01:08 - 00:08:20:08 They're still taking a lot of hits, but the energy consequences of the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed will hurt the United States and our partners globally more than Iran. That said, they are taking a lot of hits, right? Iran is getting battered by an ongoing air campaign that has not let up, as you said in the intro. 00:08:20:10 - 00:08:46:03 And so there are reasons for them to want to bring this to a close on their own timeline. And even though over the last 48 hours we had them saying, "We're not talking, we're not even engaging," there are now indications that someone is talking. Right. And it does look like there was some element of showing they were talking to the right people with the administration by allowing one vessel through the Strait of Hormuz yesterday, again trying to start this conversation. 00:08:46:06 - 00:09:16:03 But the proof will be if substantive conversations really move forward in this conversation now about maybe J.D. Vance leading a US delegation to Pakistan. Well, I managed to get hold of Dr Mark Burke yesterday. He was in Parliament, giving some questions to the minister, but I liked to find out from him how the DA expects or anticipates that they can cut the big hit that we're going to be taking on petrol at the end of the month. 00:09:16:03 - 00:09:38:23 In fact, next week the petrol price will go up. We haven't been given the confirmation yet, but from DME, the average increase in the petrol price for the month of March has been five rand and 72 to date. And that means that the way that it always worked in the past is that gets added to the petrol price. 00:09:39:00 - 00:09:58:22 Then you can add the increase in the fuel levy, which was announced in the budget. You're talking about six bucks—so six rand higher per litre, which is a 30% increase. We pay about 20 rand a litre now. Diesel is worth looking at—ten rand on diesel that's coming in next week. We're paying about the same price. 00:09:58:22 - 00:10:23:16 So that's about a 50% increase. Those are almost guaranteed to give this economy the kind of shock that it really cannot afford to have. And Mark Burke is hard at work trying to find a way out of it, a little bit like what he did when he was leading the charge from the Democratic Alliance on the VAT increase proposal. 00:10:23:18 - 00:10:56:15 He did manage to get that one sorted out. Maybe this Cambridge doctorate holder and very successful businessman who had a startup, did well out of it, and was able then to retire very young and go into politics for the benefit of the rest of us. Well, have a listen to what Mark is busy doing. We are proposing a 50% reduction in both the General Fuel Levy, as well as the Road Accident Fund levy. 00:10:56:17 - 00:11:20:08 Now, those two levies combined add to about six rand 35 per litre, and a 50% reduction in each would come to a three rand 17 reduction at the pump, which means that if the price goes up by almost six rand in a week, then you would have been able to cushion at least three rand 17 after that. 00:11:20:10 - 00:11:39:16 But it's a pretty theoretical proposal, but also in our estimation a necessary one given what South Africans are facing. Yeah, it's radical, but if you were to step back from it, if you had a business that was going through a similar situation, you would look for cutting costs somewhere. When politicians get in, they get something; it never goes down. 00:11:39:16 - 00:12:01:14 It seems to always go up. But why has it taken the DA to actually think this one through? It's pretty obvious. We've got to do something as a nation. The Treasury says they haven't got money, but you have not looked at it in a different, in a more innovative way. Just the earlier point—taxes always seem to go up and government always seems to creep with its attempts at gaining power. 00:12:01:16 - 00:12:22:04 And so it is concerning that these things always go up at the cost-of-crisis juncture in this country's trajectory; you have to reassess it. So what we've come up with is the 50% reduction across the two, but it is a cost of 6.5 billion rand a month to the fiscus that would have to come from somewhere. 00:12:22:06 - 00:12:46:12 Now, we've also, incidentally, just passed the fiscal framework yesterday, which is a months-long process and planning and execution through the two houses of Parliament. And even though the fiscal framework is passed, and as it should have been, we need to now respond to the global shock. And so what we've proposed to fund the 6.5 billion rand a month is a set of various pots of money. 00:12:46:15 - 00:13:15:00 Where from the Compensation Fund, they've got surpluses that accumulate. And every year, Treasury gives them permission to retain those surpluses. And this is an entity that is poorly managed and has questionable audit outcomes. So in the 24/25 year, the Compensation Fund had a 21.7 billion rand surplus that they applied to retain. You know, that alone would give us three months' worth of breathing room for this relief. 00:13:15:02 - 00:13:34:13 Again, it doesn't change the fiscal framework we've passed. Likewise, SETAs in their latest report indicate that they've 6.7 billion in annual surpluses. So it gives you another month and brings you up to four months of breathing room. In the programme over the medium term, they indicated they would be able to save 12 billion. To give you another two months of breathing room. 00:13:34:16 - 00:13:49:00 So as of this morning, was proposed to the Treasury and the Minister and the President at least six months' worth of funding for relief. That doesn't increase taxes for South Africans and also doesn't increase the fiscus's debt burden to fund this relief. 00:13:49:02 - 00:13:56:08 Well, more strength to your elbow, Mark Burke. And, man, isn't it good to have people like that representing us in Parliament. 00:13:56:10 - 00:14:06:00 Moving on though, you can get that full interview on the BizNews channels. And I strongly recommend that you do so. 00:14:27:12 - 00:14:48:04 Craig Warriner—that's a name that business tribe members would know very well. He's a conman, a Ponzi scheme operator. He had a trust called Bateleur. Apparently it was "Berkshire Hathaway" was what it stood for, using every trick in the book to suck money away from people. 00:14:48:06 - 00:15:20:11 And in traditional Ponzi manner, you pay him. He then gives you a high rate of interest—not too high, so you don't get suspicious. And he uses the income that comes from the new investors to keep the scheme going. That's how Ponzis work, anyway. Craig Warriner preyed a great deal on the old boys of St Stithians. Old boys and old girls—the Old Stithian Association. 00:15:20:13 - 00:15:51:06 St Stithians decided to even take money from him for the school's gym, and it was renamed the Craig Warriner High Performance Centre. I kid you not. He's in jail. And this is after he gave himself up and last week, last Friday, there was a vote to see whether Warriner could be ejected from the Old Pupils Association. 00:15:51:06 - 00:16:20:19 It was motivated by Ian McLeod, who I spoke to yesterday. A fascinating story and let's just hear why indeed he did what he did. And the surprising result—the vote was lost. I think it was 18 people voted against expulsion, 16 voted for expulsion. And for some reason, six people turned up on a Friday evening to abstain. 00:16:20:21 - 00:16:42:00 So the upshot is that what I think is a small, very vocal lobby turned out to prevent the expulsion of Warriner. And I'm still trying to work out precisely why, but I have some ideas. Well, give us yours as I did, because that's on stunning game. Here's a guy who defrauded the community. 00:16:42:03 - 00:17:14:19 He then goes to the police station, hands himself in. He's sitting in jail. So there's no question that he did run a Ponzi scheme. And yet a majority of those who bothered to turn up on a Friday night actually voted to keep him as part of the association. It sounds real weird. Yes. And I increasingly hear that from more and more alumni who are now hearing about this and coming out and expressing that same shock and this alumni body tends to be a little bit flat. 00:17:14:19 - 00:17:43:06 But I think people are now coming out and I suspect the majority is in favour of expulsion, as far as I can tell. There are two sort of broad reasons which people are mentioning. One is procedural—one, there seems to be a concern that the constitution is too broad if people want guidelines, etc. I have very little sympathy for this. 00:17:43:08 - 00:18:13:16 Firstly, you have to read the constitution as if the framers knew what they were doing and acted with purpose. This is the provision as it is. If we want more details, good idea; we should do that prospectively. Another reason gets banded or bandied about is the sort of—the term used as "membership for life." It sounds like it's motivated by something like mercy or something like this. 00:18:13:18 - 00:18:44:12 Again, I have very little... no sympathy for this. I think that explanation comes down to what Gad Saad calls "suicidal empathy." But again, I think it's a very small, loud minority tuned up to prevent the expulsion. And I think the majority of the alumni body have been spurred into action. And I'm talking with old boys from the youngsters with their broccoli haircuts to the old bellies with the dead bodies. 00:18:44:14 - 00:19:05:01 And there's a great deal of action now to defend the school and to defend all of our individual reputations. Ian McLeod has written a story on that which will be published on BizNews this morning. But I guess maybe we should think about the bigger picture here. There were 40 people who voted. It's an online vote. 00:19:05:01 - 00:19:28:23 It's not like you had to go anywhere. There are thousands of members of the Old Pupils Association at St Stithians. Warriner is a stain on the school's reputation. Yet only 40 people bothered to go there, and all you needed was 18 highly motivated friends of Warriner who then voted to keep him as a member of the association. It boggles the mind, doesn't it? 00:19:29:01 - 00:19:55:15 Well, something else that boggles the mind is what's happening in Zimbabwe to the north of us. The Mayor of Bulawayo, David Coltart, spoke yesterday to my colleague Chris Steyn about the arrest of Tendai Biti. Tendai Biti used to be the Finance Minister in the Government of National Unity—it was such that it was at some point in time before Mnangagwa took over complete control. 00:19:56:03 - 00:20:23:05 Tendai Biti said that the proposed change in the constitution of Zimbabwe is wrong, and it should not be allowed. This proposed change is going to effectively allow Mnangagwa to be president for life, and that you wouldn't have the public being involved in appointing the president. That's what the effect of it is. But let's have a listen to what David Coltart said to Chris. 00:20:23:07 - 00:20:51:14 A highlight of what he said to Chris yesterday. Once again you can pick up the full interview on the news channels. Clearly, the arrest of Tendai Biti was contrived. Was used to punish him for opposing these amendments. But clearly now, given the bail conditions, has been used to ensure that he contributes no further to the debate which is swirling in the country around this amendment bill. 00:20:51:16 - 00:21:20:01 So with his voice effectively silenced now, what impact will that have on other members of the opposition fighting these proposed changes? Well, it has a chilling effect on everyone. And let me also say that the arrest of Tendai Biti hasn't come in a vacuum. I was meant to contribute to a debate in Bulawayo two or three weeks ago; that meeting was banned. 00:21:20:03 - 00:21:49:23 Another fellow lawyer, Lovemore Madhuku, was set upon by his on-and-off thugs a few weeks ago and badly beaten and tortured, and he ended up in hospital as a result of that. And so one needs to see this in this broader context that it is designed to have a chilling effect on activists who are opposed to these constitutional amendments, but also to the general public. 00:21:50:01 - 00:22:37:14 In the coming days, starting on the 30th of March, there's a period of 3 to 4 days when parliamentarians will be going countrywide to engage in this process of explaining the bill to the general public and getting the views of the public. And there's no doubt in my mind that ZANU-PF are busy preparing their own supporters to come to these hearings, but given what has happened in the last few weeks with the beatings and the arrests, that acts as a chilling effect for those who are opposed to the bill. 00:22:37:16 - 00:23:05:17 And therefore, all this will mean that this process of public hearings in itself has been undermined by this. If these constitutional amendments make it, it would mean that the current president could be in power until 2030. Is that correct? Well, that extends not just the president but the existing parliamentarians and even, in theory, me as a councillor. Our terms in office are extended by two years. 00:23:05:21 - 00:23:29:13 It's a very grim prospect that we face in the country. Because in essence, what we are seeing is a constitutional coup. I think that ZANU-PF has looked at what has happened in Tanzania and Uganda and the fallout of such violent elections, and they've decided just to avoid elections, quite frankly, for another two years. 00:23:29:15 - 00:23:56:01 And if they extend now by a further two years, what's to stop them just extending their terms even further beyond that? And lest we forget, Emmerson Mnangagwa, the president of Zimbabwe who became president in the coup, nobody voted for him. There was an election which many people say was heavily rigged. He's 83 years old and he wants to continue to be president for at least another two years. 00:23:56:01 - 00:24:25:19 And after that, who knows. There are interesting things happening in the world. And lest we forget what was going on in Iran—or if you don't know or don't care—well, do yourself a favour and go and watch Iraj Abedian interview and his keynote address at the BizNews conference to get a little bit of insight on the history and the background so that you don't just make an opinion, but you come from a position with some context on it. 00:24:25:21 - 00:24:52:00 Before we go, the international markets. Well, okay. On Wall Street last night you had the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 index making about a half a percentage point improvement. So quite a bit of green there. But in Japan this morning the Nikkei Dow is down about half a per cent. The rand starts at 16 rand 97 against the US dollar. 00:24:52:01 - 00:25:05:20 Gold and Bitcoin were both pretty flat; gold around 4,500 dollars. Bitcoin just under $71,000 per bitcoin. 00:25:05:22 - 00:25:39:21 Well, that wraps up today's edition of The BizNews Daybreak. Thanks for starting your Thursday with us. For more in-depth analysis, the full interviews, and the latest market movements, make sure that you head over to biznews.com. You can also pick up on BizNews TV—that's on YouTube—or on your favourite podcast channel, BizNews Radio. If you haven't already, please hit the subscribe button on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your audio so that you never miss an episode. 00:25:39:23 - 00:26:05:00 I'm taking a short break—well, a long weekend—ahead of the April, the Easter weekend, and the team will be looking after Daybreak tomorrow and on Monday. But I'll be back again on Tuesday. Until then, cheerio.

BN Daybreak Thur 26 Mar - Plan to halve next week's petrol hike; Saints embrace Warriner; Zim abuse escalates

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