BN Daybreak - 1 Apr 2026: Trump signals end to Iran war; Fuel increase; ANC support hits lows; Remgro

In this episode of BizNews Daybreak, global markets rally as President Trump predicts an end to the war in Iran within weeks. Locally, Remgro announces a massive R16.5 billion deal to simplify its Mediclinic holdings. We also examine the mechanics of South African fuel prices with Mark Burke, while by-election data reveals ANC support hitting a historic low of 34%..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox at 5:30am weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa’s bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here..Watch here.Listen here.Edited transcript of today's Daybreak episode.00:00:25:37 - 00:00:51:22 Good morning. This is BizNews Daybreak. I'm Asime Nyide. Coming up, a look at global markets. BizNews editor Alec Hogg breaks down a major Remgro move and what it says about South Africa. We unpack what rising oil prices could mean for your petrol bill. And then a closer look at crime, politics and what the numbers are quietly saying about the ANC.00:00:51:27 - 00:01:12:07 So plenty to get through. Let's start with a look at the latest global developments. Here are the news updates from our partners at Bloomberg. There was a dramatic recovery in the stock market today on the final day of the first quarter. The rally was driven by speculation that both the US and Iran may be looking for a way out of the war.00:01:12:09 - 00:01:34:49 Then, after the bell, President Trump said he sees the US ending the war in Iran within two to three weeks. Trump also called on other nations to seize control of the Strait of Hormuz. What happens in the strait? We're not going to have anything to do with because these countries, China—China will go up and they'll fuel up their beautiful ships and they'll leave and they'll take care of themselves.00:01:34:49 - 00:01:54:45 There's no reason for us to do it. We hit them hard. We get rid of a lot of the radicalised lunatics along the street. But if they want something... but I would say that within two weeks, maybe two weeks, maybe three. Now, Trump also indicated it was possible that Iran could still reach a deal with the US during that time frame.00:01:54:45 - 00:02:21:11 And he said an agreement with Tehran was not necessary for the war to end. The United Arab Emirates is reportedly preparing to help the US and other allies open the Strait of Hormuz by force. The Wall Street Journal reports the UAE is lobbying for a UN Security Council resolution to authorise such action. The UAE is also reviewing how it could play a military role in securing the strait.00:02:21:16 - 00:02:47:42 Earlier today, Iranian state media reported President Masoud Pezeshkian saying the Islamic Republic has the necessary will to end the war, however, only with guarantees to prevent the recurrence of aggression. On Wall Street, the S&P 500 climbed nearly 3% today and the Nasdaq Composite added 3.8%. Here is Lauren Sanfilippo of BofA Private Bank. "We're watching the damage and duration of what's going on in the Middle East."00:02:47:42 - 00:03:08:38 Right. And that's what matters. How much longer? Which we don't really have a clear signal on that. And what damage to the energy infrastructure? Because that will dictate what this recovery will look like on the other side. That is Lauren Sanfilippo of Bank of America Private Bank. An American journalist was kidnapped on Tuesday in Baghdad, and Iraqi security forces are pursuing her captors.00:03:08:52 - 00:03:36:13 The freelance journalist was identified by one of the outlets she worked for as Shelly Kitson. A US official blamed the Iran-backed Iraqi militia group Kata'ib Hezbollah. In business news, OpenAI raised $122 billion in its latest funding round, and the financing will help the company with its costly push for more computer chips, data centres and talent. OpenAI now has a valuation of $852 billion.00:03:36:18 - 00:04:02:22 Here is Bloomberg’s Shireen Jafferjee. Now, I think the thinking behind this round, in particular, as our CFO Sarah Friar said on a press call this morning, was that this round in general gives them some flexibility. So, of course, you know, all these companies, as we reported, are looking toward an IPO, but also, if they're able to raise this amount of large cash and get some exposure to retail investors in the meantime, that also gives them the option to wait if they want to for that IPO.00:04:02:24 - 00:04:29:42 That is Bloomberg’s Shireen Jafferjee. Global equity markets have seen a significant surge overnight. Here are your financial headlines. The S&P 500 closed up 3%, while the Nasdaq outperformed with a gain of nearly 4%. In Asia, the Japanese Nikkei delivered a standout performance, surging 4%, while domestically the JSE followed the upward trend, gaining just over 1%. Now back home and a busy day on the corporate front.00:04:29:47 - 00:04:46:53 BizNews editor Alec Hogg takes us through a major Remgro transaction, along with updates from Sabvest, Jubilee Metals and what it all says about where capital is moving and perhaps where confidence is starting to return. Here's Alec.00:04:46:57 - 00:05:31:13 Hello! What a busy final day of the first quarter of 2026, punctuated by a massive transaction from Remgro. Remgro has been trying to give its shareholders more clarity on the underlying assets, simplifying the operation and unlocking the value that seems to be caught up in the stock. And today it did a transaction with its partner, IHL. What they are doing is untangling their shareholding in Mediclinic. The international partner, the Swiss, whose Hirslanden group will go into IHL's portfolio, and Mediclinic in South Africa becomes 100% owned by Remgro.00:05:31:14 - 00:06:01:53 You might recall that Remgro delisted Mediclinic from the stock market three years ago. Mediclinic is a private hospitals group here in South Africa. The bottom line is it's a fundamentally good deal. Very big one, 16.5 billion rand. But it strips out the offshore complexity between the two partners and enables Remgro and its team to focus on the local assets here in South Africa, where it operates best.00:06:01:57 - 00:06:27:23 It's also a vote of confidence in South Africa, because having the Swiss hospitals was obviously a Rand hedge. The annual report was released today by Sabvest. That is a member of the BizNews portfolio, one of our star performers there. It's run by 73-year-old Christopher Seabrooke. He's been at it since 1980, so he certainly knows what's going on.00:06:27:27 - 00:06:52:45 The performance of this company has made it one of the favourites of Piet Viljoen. And in fact, I think it's his biggest holding in some of the funds that he manages. Well, today, the company released its annual report. It showed that the net asset value, which is all-important in an investment trust, was up by 22% in the year to end-December.00:06:52:50 - 00:07:23:59 And that takes it now to over 6 billion rand. The debt did go up a little, but that's no problem because there's a massive influx of cash following the delisting of Metrofile, which was one of the constituents of the Sabvest portfolio. Bottom line, a high-quality showing as we've come to expect from the Sabvest group. Shareholders will be highly reassured, not least by a 24% increase in the dividend.00:07:24:04 - 00:07:56:45 At 139 rand, the shares trade at a 14% discount to the current underlying net asset value, and that net asset value is perhaps conservatively stated in today's release. In its interim results, Jubilee Metals told us that it has now finalised the 90 million US dollar offloading of its South African chrome and platinum assets. It's now focusing entirely on the Zambian copper sector.00:07:56:50 - 00:08:27:03 It also released today the news that it is revamping its Zambian Mwale Mine, investing in a four-month development process to put together two open pits, which management believes will produce a consistent higher-grade feed for the Sable refinery that it has in Zambia. The bottom line is this is a fundamentally sensible move which shareholders will welcome.00:08:27:08 - 00:09:01:09 Stripping out the legacy operations in a very difficult, legislatively torturous South African mining sector and focusing in a sector where it appears as though the lawmakers are trying to make it as easy as possible to mine—that is, in Zambia—is very good news over the long term. And although the development of the Mwale Mine is going to put dividends on hold for a while, it's the right decision when you have a look at the sustainability impact that you will see.00:09:01:14 - 00:09:24:42 So all round, it's not surprising that Jubilee is one of Peter Major's favourite stocks. In fact, any chance he gets, he tells us, "Look closely at Jubilee Mine," and I think we should. Well, that's the news from the investment front today. I'll be back with more tomorrow.00:09:24:54 - 00:09:54:23 Cheerio. Staying with energy, DA finance spokesperson Mark Burke explains how global oil prices and currency movements translate into what South Africans pay at the pump. The key point: there's a lag and there are a lot of moving parts. There's also a view that this may be more of a short to medium-term shock, rather than something permanent. But that depends on how the situation unfolds.00:09:54:27 - 00:09:55:47 Here's his take.00:09:55:52 - 00:10:17:43 Just for the layperson out there, the way the fuel price calculation in South Africa works is on this catch-up basis. So there is movement in the price per barrel of crude, and then there's movement in the foreign currency. And then once a month we say, "Well, that movement has resulted in this change in the fuel price," or as frequently as once a month.00:10:17:43 - 00:10:42:38 That doesn't, of course, always move in that way. And so what you're now describing is if the price per barrel keeps going up and the rand keeps weakening, then a month from now we'll be looking at yet another base price increase. I think it's a valid question. I think anybody telling you they can predict what will happen in the Middle East and, by implication, what will happen to the global supply of oil is probably being a bit too adventurous in the analysis.00:10:42:38 - 00:11:16:01 Nobody can tell you what will happen then, but what I feel one could say with a measure of confidence, although always applying a healthy amount of scepticism, is that this is likely more of a short-term to medium-term shock to the global economy than a permanent shock to the global economy. And I say that only because, you know, at some point, if sources of fuel from that part of the world—and Iran specifically—is not viable anymore, then the way enterprise works is it tries to find ways around it over the medium to long term.00:11:16:05 - 00:11:51:22 And so I'm hopeful that, you know, what we're not looking at is the forever shock here, but that it is more short to medium-term in its nature. And then back to your question now: what happens by next month? Well, the factors of the total fuel price per litre of, perhaps, petrol is simplest to explain. About six rand 32 goes towards the state coffers and the various levies that get charged, be that the general fuel levy and the Road Accident Fund levy. And three rand of that has now been offered up for a month and potentially two months thereafter as of today, from the minister's announcement, which obviously means there's another00:11:51:22 - 00:12:12:49 three rand to go if absolutely needed. Well, and we'll have to then monitor and see what the base price of fuel does. I'll also point out that what the DA proposed and what the ANC within the margin of error of 5% today announced—three rand 17, a reduction—was actually a 50% reduction in the two levies on the Road Accident Fund and General Fuel Levy, which is global best practice.00:12:12:49 - 00:12:31:27 Australia has done it over the weekend, India did it at the end of last week, and many other countries are taking measures to try and insulate their economies. So we've taken a measure that's comparable to what's being done elsewhere in the world to try and absorb some of the shock on behalf of South Africans. And so we have been pushing the government and—and that's good.00:12:31:34 - 00:12:47:34 That's good that the ANC listened on this occasion. It sucks that they took so long, as they often do, and ran it down to the wire. But, of course, that doesn't resolve the pain for South Africans, but also the pain for people all over the world at the moment.00:12:47:39 - 00:12:51:59 Now to South Africa's political and governance landscape.00:12:52:04 - 00:13:14:12 Action Society national spokesperson, Juanita du Preez, weighs in on a situation that raises a familiar question: how accountability is applied and to whom. At the same time, there is at least one piece of more encouraging news on policing leadership in KwaZulu-Natal. Here's that conversation.00:13:14:17 - 00:13:44:28 We haven't spoken in a while. A lot has happened. A lot is happening. Special leave police minister, Bheki Cele, the news is resuming his duties as a member of the African National Congress NEC. That's... it's quite telling for me that he is suspended as a police minister, but he can resume his duties as part of the ANC top body.00:13:44:33 - 00:14:10:24 It's really telling. It really does show the country how they feel about people who are so involved, who are in crime and corruption and everything that is going wrong in this country. So either it's they don't care—and or they... I think they just don't care. They'll just do stuff the way they want to.00:14:10:24 - 00:14:38:26 And it doesn't matter. But we've seen this before. People being reinstated after serving time. And I'm not talking about the previous, you know, other crimes. It is recent crimes. And they just get reinstated. It's just like, "Oh, well, the government will deal with you, but us as a party, we don't care." Well, meanwhile, KwaZulu-Natal Provincial... sorry, Provincial...00:14:38:31 - 00:15:04:02 ...other... oh, I promoted him from provincial commissioner Nhlanhla Mkhwanazi has been reappointed for another five-year term. Yes, that's good news. It's... if the guy is showing that he's getting stuff done. KZN is really one of the places where we do see the crime stats climbing and, especially, the more serious crimes.00:15:04:06 - 00:15:28:09 If you look at the police's crime stats. So that's good news. And I hope he stays the hero that he is for a lot of people. I do hope that he continues the way he spoke and the idea that we got. But I do hope that we were not wrong.00:15:28:14 - 00:15:49:53 And, hopefully in the... it's a five-year term. So, and he said... that's interesting. I read an interview where he said he told his family he's only going to do one term. But then, they asked him and they explained to him how important it would be. And then he spoke to the family and decided, "Okay, we'll do another five-year term."00:15:50:08 - 00:16:08:39 So, I really do think the guy's heart is in the police and in the safety of South Africans. So let's see if it really does bring a different crime stat picture in the next five years.00:16:08:44 - 00:16:21:26 And finally, to the numbers. Victory Research CEO Gareth van Onselen has been tracking recent by-election results, and they point to a steady decline in support for the ANC.00:16:21:30 - 00:16:33:16 Support for the ANC is at historic lows, driven by a mix of voter apathy and dissatisfaction. The bigger question now is whether that message is landing where it needs to.00:16:33:21 - 00:16:55:24 This really is a helpful indicator as to the health of the ANC. And if you want to take one thing away from it, it is that the party at the moment is at its lowest ebb in terms of all by-election results going back to the 11th of September—rather, the 7th of September 2011. Is this due to anger or is this just due to apathy?00:16:55:29 - 00:17:17:11 So that's a great question. I think it's both things. What you find—and you'll see elsewhere in the tracker, it tracks turnouts in all the by-elections—is that the average turnout level in by-elections is lower than local government elections. So as a general rule, people don't take by-elections as seriously as they take local government elections.00:17:17:16 - 00:17:40:24 So that's the apathy point of view. It's kind of hardwired into by-elections. But there is also the fundamental problem of alienation, unhappiness and discontent with the ANC, which is also driving down its vote. And those two things are coming together, I think, not just in by-elections, but in local and national elections as well to systematically drive the ANC down.00:17:40:34 - 00:18:03:26 These are scary numbers. If I were sitting in Luthuli House right now and looking at this, it's the kind of thing that I would be calling a crisis committee together for and saying, "How the heck are we going to turn this around?" Is there any sense from where you sit that it's appreciated how much trouble the ANC is in?00:18:03:26 - 00:18:25:36 Because as you say this, when you see the graph on the screen, which those listening can't, but it is at an all-time record low of 34%. It would suggest that if you're in a crisis, you better start doing something about it. Yeah. So I don't think that there's anything that the ANC can do about its by-election performances.00:18:25:36 - 00:18:47:47 And I do think that the party, or at least those who matter in the party, the key decision-makers, are aware of the extent of its decline. I don't think that realisation has filtered all the way through the party. And I think it becomes less and less powerful the further you get away from the ANC centre.00:18:47:52 - 00:19:12:36 And that's just evidenced by the way the party behaves. Its competence reduces dramatically the further you get away from national; local government is by far the most damaged institution in our government structure. And so I don't think that urgency exists at local government level. There are probably people at Luthuli House who are panicking about the ANC's percentage.00:19:12:41 - 00:19:36:12 Whether that has fluctuated through the party, I don't think so. I don't think the whole of the ANC as an institution, as regards its organisational culture, has clicked that, you know, if it carries on like this, the end is nigh. And that's BizNews Daybreak for this morning. I'm Asime Nyide. Thanks for listening.00:19:36:17 - 00:19:37:21 We'll keep you posted as the day unfolds. Cheers.

BN Daybreak - 1 Apr 2026: Trump signals end to Iran war; Fuel increase; ANC support hits lows; Remgro

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