By Alec Hogg
Even though our company was primarily established to provide insights and context on business and investments, we’ve been paying considerable attention to South Africa’s political scene. That’s rational because politics supersedes economics in a developing country like ours (P>E). So, in SA, politics matters a great deal.
Part of this process has been keeping a close eye on municipal by-election results to gauge the electorate’s temperature and tapping into the minds of the best political scientists. RW Johnson provides meat for the statistical bones. People like Frans Cronje help flesh out a fuller picture.
___STEADY_PAYWALL___In our interview yesterday, Cronje shared the latest findings from the continuous in-person polling by his Social Research Foundation. He says that with the 2024 Election just around the corner, the SRF focuses on the country’s three richest provinces – Gauteng, W Cape, and KZN – where the ANC is losing the most ground.
Until this month, the Western Cape was “a blank slate” for the SRF. Cronje says he was surprised by the results, which are unique in an SA context. The DA’s good governance message resonates loudly with voters, many of whom might go elsewhere on their national ballot but fully support the provincial incumbent.
On a few occasions in interviews, DA provincial chair Helen Zille told me the ANC is “dead” in the province. That sounded like political talk. Cronje’s research, however, concurs. He believes the ANC could poll 50% nationally, but in the DA-run province where it was in the 30s recently, the ANC is now down to just 10%.
Cronje says challenger parties like the PA and Action SA should take note and rather focus on scooping up disenchanted former ANC voters than attack the DA rock in its heartland. Unless they do, the province may end up with the far-left EFF becoming the DA’s official opposition after the 2024 Election. You’ll find the full interview and edited transcript on Biznews.com.
Sterkte
Alec
Read also:
- Cronje: Voters say DA’s W Cape template shining ever brighter; Great AGOA news
- RW Johnson: Why ANC-SACP persists with disastrous economic policy; Joburg’s unfixable water crisis
- Premium – RW Johnson: Sans gold, Joburg a world-class city NOT, facing inevitable decline
*Some interesting changes to the BizNews model share portfolios in yesterday’s webinar. If you missed it, as the webinar is a service for Premium members only, you won’t find it publicly listed. Here is the link to the recording: https://youtu.be/Adp2ztXGQok
