The Editor's Desk - Wed 21 Jan 2026: A fading global order and the Trump liability

In today’s analysis, we explore Mark Carney’s powerful address at the World Economic Forum, where he urges middle-ground nations like South Africa to "name reality" and act together against the rivalry of global giants. We also examine why right-wing parties in France and Germany are increasingly distancing themselves from Donald Trump to protect their own domestic standing. Finally, we look at the potential end of an era for the town of Davos itself as new WEF leadership considers moving the annual event..PS. You can book tickets for the post BNC#8 golf day sponsored by Shyft, by clicking here..Don't miss out on future episodes of The Editor's Desk. Subscribe to BizNews Premium and get the podcast delivered to your inbox daily..Listen here.Read the full transcript of The Editor's Desk podcast below.It's been very interesting watching Davos from the outside this year. There's an enormous amount of information that comes through. When you're on the ground there, you do pick up the messages in the wind, but you don't get this wonderful overview that I'm being privileged with this time round. It is quite interesting to be looking at it differently.It was also interesting to watch Mark Carney's address. He's the Prime Minister of Canada and the man who has Donald Trump to thank for becoming Prime Minister. Carney's party, which was previously led by Justin Trudeau, was heading for a massive defeat at the polls until Donald Trump started calling the country the "51st state of America." He started referring to the leaders there as "governors," which got the backs up of the normally very courteous Canadians. They swung back behind the party that was unaligned with Trump. The point here is that the Liberals—the party of Trudeau and Carney—were victorious at the elections, whereas the Conservatives were supposed to win handily until Trump's intervention.We'll get back to this a little later as there is a fascinating piece in The Economist that talks to this point. I remember being in Davos at one of those breakfast meetings when Trevor Manuel used to attend; he and Mark Carney know each other pretty well. Certainly, the way they greeted each other and had a good chat showed two people who were not just professional acquaintances, but perhaps even friends.It's not surprising because Manuel, of course, was the Finance Minister of South Africa and the chairman of Rothschilds in this country. He operated at a very high level in the financial arena. Mark Carney, before going back to Canada, was the Governor of the Bank of England—a highly prestigious job you don't get for being a mug.This tells us two things. On one side, Carney is an intellectual heavyweight; he is somebody who reflects, thinks, and has held enough difficult jobs for us to know he has brains. On the other hand, he relates to people like Trevor Manuel, who is similarly intellectually blessed and very much an independent. Manuel, as you will have noticed over the years, stood against his party and shouted out when corruption was endemic. He was a superb finance minister—by far the best South Africa has probably ever had. In the modern era, he's in a league of his own. Manuel understood that if you have less debt, you have more money to use on uplifting society. He worked really hard at bringing down South Africa's debt and keeping a tight hold on spending.It's interesting to me that I saw the two of them with my own eyes engaging on a level you would imagine from peers. Put that in the back of your mind and then go watch on BizNews or read the transcript of the address Mark Carney gave to the World Economic Forum yesterday. It is the kind of address already being cited as one of the finest delivered at this august event. It's also one where he suggests a path for countries like South Africa.At the moment, it's almost like you have two playground bullies making all the rules: the United States, very obviously, and President Xi of China, perhaps less obviously, but certainly in the same ballpark. As a result of these "elephants" fighting, the grass is getting trampled—the grass being the rest of the world’s countries. Carney started by telling the audience that we live in an era of great power rivalry and that the rules-based order is fading. The strong can do what they want, and the weak must suffer what they must.But he says this doesn't have to be the end of the story for those who are not China or the United States. He urges a different path. He says the powerful have the power, but those outside the great powers have something too: the capacity to stop pretending, to name reality, to build strength at home, and, most importantly, to act together. It’s a very powerful speech and one that will resonate in many capitals.This brings us to that piece by The Economist. The French have always had their own way of doing things, but right now they are leading the charge against Donald Trump. That’s not just Macron, who has been an opponent of Trump’s pretty much forever, but the right-wing National Rally. The party is led by Marine Le Pen with a young Prime Minister, Jordan Bardella. He is the man most likely to become the next president if Marine Le Pen is not allowed to run in 2027 (she has appealed that ruling).The National Rally party is very much in the ascendancy in France, just like Reform is in the UK and Giorgia Meloni’s party is in Italy. But the interesting point made in The Economist is that what Donald Trump is up to is proving to be an electoral liability for right-wing parties in Europe; increasingly, they are distancing themselves from him. The lesson of Canada was well learned. The Economist points out that National Rally has only a 30% approval rating for Trump among its members; the AfD in Germany is at 34%. It’s only Reform in the UK where Trump is something of a hero at 50%.Donald Trump, who speaks later in Davos, will surely be mindful of this. I like what Piet Viljoen said, and before that Niall Ferguson’s view, that Trump is putting pegs in the sand that are far away from the outcome he intends. He acts like a property negotiator, which is what he is. However, his entry into politics is so disruptive that he is at risk of overreaching. Even his friends who hitched their fortunes to the Trump wagon are now unhitching themselves because of the liability he creates within their own constituencies.Nobody likes an imperialist, and in the way he has addressed the Greenland issue, Donald Trump has shown himself to be one. He thinks America should be able to acquire, by military force if necessary, a part of the world that has been operating quite happily for centuries under Danish control—despite the Danes being founder members of NATO and staunch US allies.There is also a good piece on BizNews today from our partners at the Financial Times suggesting that the "new" World Economic Forum is finding its feet. Remember, founder Klaus Schwab was ousted by his board and management team last year. There’s a "new broom" there, including Larry Fink, the financial services kingpin from the United States. The "new WEF" is now suggesting it's time to move the annual meeting away from Davos, where it has been held for half a century.Klaus Schwab would never have contemplated that. His idea was to keep a small place where partners and spouses could talk about improving the state of the world. Now, the new leadership says the car queues are too long. My suggestion was just to walk everywhere, because Davos is a walking town! The problem is that there used to be only 1,600 participants. That number swelled to 2,500 last year and is hitting 3,000 this year. With tens of thousands of "hangers-on" descending on this little resort, there is only standing room left. Instead of saying "let's go back to being intimate," the new WEF people are asking how to make more money. The way of the world, I guess.To close off, we have a piece today by John Matisonn taking a hard look at Angie Motshekga’s decision to create a commission of inquiry into what happened with the Iranians participating in naval exercises. This happened after the President apparently told the Defence Force to withdraw the invitation. John says had the Minister just done the basic work—or even been there—she would have known exactly what went on. Such is the incompetence of our Minister of Defence that she can't even get that right, and now taxpayer money is being spent on an unnecessary exercise.I’m going to leave it there for today. Please keep an eye on your Premium newsletter for links to the freshest published content. Also, don't forget that seats are filling up for the BizNews Conference, March 10th to 12th, in Hermanus. If you haven't been to a BNC before, this is a good one to start with: BNC#8. We have a fabulous lineup and new innovations, including a second tent for more intimate fireside chats.The number eight stands for infinity—a very lucky number. It could be your lucky number if you come along! You’ll find all the information on the BizNews.com website. Join us; it will be great fun. Thanks for trusting us with your time today. I’m Alec Hogg, until tomorrow, cheerio.

The Editor's Desk - Wed 21 Jan 2026: A fading global order and the Trump liability

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