The Editor's Desk - Wed 28 Jan 2026: Gold’s relentless rally, the ASML AI surge, and O’Sullivan’s high-stakes shootout

Gold is enjoying its finest hour since 1980, and today I’m looking at why this "barbarous relic" is defying all the rules. I also dive into the latest surge from our portfolio favourite, ASML, and share the latest on Paul O’Sullivan’s explosive allegations as he prepares for his "last rodeo" from offshore..PS. You can book tickets for the post BNC#8 golf day sponsored by Shyft, by clicking here..Don't miss out on future episodes of The Editor's Desk. Subscribe to BizNews Premium and get the podcast delivered to your inbox daily..Listen here.Read the full transcript of The Editor's Desk podcast below.Hello and welcome, I’m Alec Hogg. You’ve seen the headlines on biznews.com, watched and listened to the interviews on BizNews TV and BizNews Radio. So now let’s talk about what the latest developments mean for your money. This is the Editor’s Desk, exclusive analysis for BizNews Premium members, and today is Wednesday, the 28th of January 2026. Glad to have you with me.There used to be a wonderful Nedbank ad going back some years where you had this Scottish fellow saying to the other person who was asking him for investment advice: "Take it from me lad, gold." And I’ve never forgotten that because, in South Africa, it really was all about gold. When I was a young reporter in 1980, when I started in this business, it was a banner month. My very first month, I started in January 1980 at The Citizen newspaper in Johannesburg, having never been to Johannesburg before.That gave me a real eye-opener. I can’t say I’d never been, because I was there for my interviews, but that was about it. My first visit was to the wondrous stadium where I watched my beloved Natal cricket team with Collis King in the ascendancy, beating the "mean machine" of the Transvaal cricket team of the time. Boy, those used to be great, fun times. But my introduction to financial journalism as a very green, wet-behind-the-ears kid from rural KZN—having just completed my first year of university—was this incredible thing called the gold price.Every day, the gold price would put on $10, $20, $30, or $40. And every day, the news would just get better and better for South Africa. Because back then, we were the top producer of gold in the world by a long way. Every bit of increase in the gold price would see money flooding into the country. In fact, we were in a situation in South Africa—I didn’t understand too much of it at the time, but looking back—where you were being paid by the banks to borrow money because the gold price had brought so much money into the country that we were awash in liquidity. It was too much liquidity for the Reserve Bank Governor, Gerhard de Kock, to extract from the system. It was just washing around. It was one of the most incredible periods of economic growth for this country, pushed by the gold price.If you grew up in that era, or if your career started then, it’s not surprising that you would have a predilection towards watching what goes on with bullion. Consequently, I’ve always kept an eye on gold. Back then, as in the earlier years in journalism, I used to have these big spreadsheets. There was a thing then called Lotus 1-2-3, which was the state of the art in computer technology. I put it onto my little Apple IIe, ran the Lotus 1-2-3 programme, and kept these lengthy spreadsheets on the grade per ounce of all the gold mines, of which there were dozens in South Africa. Every quarter, I’d hope like heck that those floppy disks hadn’t been corrupted in the interim. If they had, I remember you used to take the floppy disks and blow on them with hot air and maybe, just maybe, it still pulled out that file you were desperately looking for.Anyway, such were the days. But when you are brought up in that kind of era, you do watch carefully what’s going on in that market. It is a shame—a dreadful shame—that South Africa is now a second-rate gold-producing nation when we still have the most gold reserves in the world. The problem is, as the gold price went up in the olden days, the miners would go to areas of the mine where the grade was lower, because the higher price made them payable. But now we’ve got such problems with legislation in South Africa, which is completely anti-investment into gold mining—or any mining for that matter—that the gold miners just let it pass.Instead of having small players, the entrepreneurs like Loucas Pouroulis or Joe Berardo who came in and took the old mines that had been worked out by the big corporations and turned them to account, you don’t have that anymore. It’s just impossible to make a case for investing in South Africa’s mining sector because we start off on the basis that we want a 30% tax from you, and you have to give politically influential pals 30% of the company in what we call BEE. We all know that it’s not "broad empowerment"; it’s about the enrichment of the few.Anyway, putting that aside, the gold price still means something to South Africa. We’ve still got Harmony producing gold here; we’ve still got the South Deep gold mine of Gold Fields Limited, although it’s sad to see all the other huge mines Gold Fields used to have in the Carletonville area no longer operating, or if they are, operating on a shoestring. Gold still has a sufficient impact on the psyche of the international community that when the price goes up, they immediately see a better day for South Africa because of the way it used to be. Indeed, it pushes the Rand higher as well.Of course, there is the ancillary benefit—and a much, much greater benefit for us now—which is platinum, or PGMs (platinum group metals). When the gold price goes up, almost in sympathy, platinum follows eventually. It’s taken a heck of a long time in this cycle, but platinum has done very well in the past year.Getting back to gold, it’s been called the "barbarous relic" by John Maynard Keynes. It’s been called something Warren Buffett would never invest in. He told the assembled gathering at a Berkshire Hathaway AGM I attended that if you took all the gold in the world ever mined, it would make a cube that would fit within the stadium where the AGM was held. He said, "I could take my little bar of gold, go and sit on top of this cube. I could look at it, fondle it, see my reflection in it—but that’s all I could do with it. I can't do anything with it. I would rather be investing in people who can use their ingenuity to turn things into profit."Well, Warren Buffett will be looking at the gold price surging of late. It’s up nearly 20% this year; it was up another $200 last night. He would be somewhat bemused, but The Economist isn’t. The Economist has done a big story on the gold price and its "relentless rally," which we have republished on BizNews today. The way they explain it is that when Donald Trump was threatening Europe, the gold price went up. When he reversed and said he would not be threatening Europe anymore, the gold price went up again.Since Trump’s tariffs were introduced in April last year, the S&P 500 index has dropped by 1% or more on 27 occasions. On each of those occasions, the average increase in the gold price was 0.6%. So, when the S&P goes down, gold goes up. We can understand that. But what is really curious about this gold rally is that when the S&P 500 has gone up by 1% or more, the gold price has also gone up on average by 0.2%. Whether Donald Trump threatens or stops threatening, the gold price goes up.The Economist concluded that this is being driven by central bankers, including those in China, and by investors pouring money into exchange-traded funds. 25% more was put into ETFs in the past year, led by Asians. And there could still be a huge run to go, because Goldman Sachs estimates that gold accounts for only 0.17% of total American wealth. Less than one-fifth of 1% is in gold. The traditional people who go for gold are those worried about government spending, geopolitics, and the collapse of institutional norms. There are many people moving into that camp now. Hence, gold is enjoying its finest hour since 1980.A stock that Warren Buffett might like if he were better disposed towards technology—or if he’d done his homework as David Shapiro did—is the Dutch company ASML. It is officially the world’s number one producer of lithography equipment, but that underestimates what it does. ASML has supercharged lithography laser processes that make semiconductors. As with Moore’s Law, these chips get smaller and more powerful all the time. ASML is at the centre of all that because it makes the machines that make it possible for chipmakers like TSMC and Intel to produce the most sophisticated chips. It’s a very good indicator of how the AI economy is going. The numbers were out this morning and the pre-market share price of ASML in the US was up by 5%. It’s going to get to $1,528. It feels like just the other day that ASML broke through $1,000. It’s part of the BizNews, Ricardo, and Shyft portfolios, so many in our community own them.To close off, I know Paul O'Sullivan very well. I got to know him during the worst of the Gupta era when he spent time in the UK while I was based there. He was never one to shrink away from controversy. The current goings-on with Lieutenant General Mkhwanazi, the subsequent Madlanga Commission, and the parliamentary inquiry have brought O’Sullivan back into the limelight. He’s been accused of heinous things by his enemies, who say he is abusing his power.Paul has responded to that. We have a piece on BizNews today where we’ve embedded the full report he is submitting to the parliamentary committee. It is a high-stakes shootout. O’Sullivan alleges that Mkhwanazi is running death squads. This was what General Johan Booysen was once accused of—which wasn’t true—but O’Sullivan says this is very real. He claims Mkhwanazi's organisation "shoots first and asks questions afterwards," and that accused criminals simply don't make it to court. O’Sullivan maintains he has eyewitnesses and alleges that Mkhwanazi is running these squads on behalf of criminal syndicates to eliminate the competition.It’s a huge allegation. Mkhwanazi, on the other hand, says O’Sullivan is the one who has overstepped his authority and is subverting South Africa’s sovereignty. You’ve got this battle between two camps. Julius Malema is very much in the Mkhwanazi camp, as we saw from his prompts during the evidence submission. We’ll find out the truth eventually from the Madlanga Commission or the Parliamentary Oversight Committee.One thing we do know is that all sides of the story are now being exposed. O’Sullivan is currently offshore—and you can’t blame him. We’ve had a number of murders as a consequence of investigations into what's being exposed. Paul says he will be giving evidence next week Tuesday and Wednesday, but he will do it remotely. He’s not going to come into a courtroom and get himself "popped off." He also mentioned in an email to me that this is his last rodeo; he’s getting too old for this, but he’s seeing it through to the end.Well, I’m going to leave it there for today. Keep an eye on your premium newsletter for links to our freshest content. Thanks for trusting us with your time. I’m Alec Hogg. Until tomorrow, cheerio.

The Editor's Desk - Wed 28 Jan 2026: Gold’s relentless rally, the ASML AI surge, and O’Sullivan’s high-stakes shootout

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