The Editor's Desk - Thu 19 Feb 2026: Patrice Motsepe’s presidential path and the global copper rush

In today’s Editor's Desk update, Alec Hogg dives into the political whispers suggesting Patrice Motsepe may be the "rabbit in the hat" the ANC needs for the 2029 elections. We examine how recent changes to his role at African Rainbow Minerals align with these political ambitions and what a Motsepe presidency might look like for South Africa..Don't miss out on future episodes of The Editor's Desk. Subscribe to BizNews Premium and get the podcast delivered to your inbox daily..Listen here.Edited transcript of today's Editor's Desk episode.This is the Editor’s Desk: exclusive analysis for our premium members. It is Thursday, the 19th of February, 2026. I don't know if this is a case of someone getting a bone, like my Jack Russells, and just not wanting to let go, but Frans Cronje is determined to float the idea that Patrice Motsepe is going to stand as the next president of the ANC and, as a consequence, become the next president of the country. He has written a very interesting piece today in The Common Sense, which we have republished on BizNews. We think The Common Sense talks a lot of common sense often. In this case, Frans notes that the Social Research Foundation numbers showed that 23% of those surveyed believe Patrice Motsepe should become the next president of the ANC. By definition, that would likely make him the president of the country from 2027 to 2029. Following four percentage points behind is Panyaza Lesufi at 19%, Paul Mashatile at 13%, and Kgosientsho Ramokgopa at only 9%, who seems to have fallen out of favour. Frans suggests the ANC will eventually need to pull a "rabbit out of the hat" for the 2029 elections, and Patrice Motsepe could very well be that rabbit. This idea gained substance after the decision this week by the chairman of African Rainbow Minerals—Patrice himself—to step down as Executive Chairman. To explain the distinction: an Executive Chairman is a full-time employee earning a salary. However, the Johannesburg Stock Exchange has introduced a new regulation stating you can no longer have an Executive Chairman. It’s about the separation of powers; shareholders should be represented by someone not dependent on the company for a daily salary. Patrice has now become a Non-Executive Chairman. He is still the "big boss," but he is no longer an executive. While business-minded people see this as a necessary regulatory move, those plugged into politics, like Frans Cronje, see it as confirmation of a larger move. In business, rationality usually rules because you get fired for poor performance. In South African politics, you don’t often get fired for "strange things," and there is a lack of lifestyle audits that are standard in the business world. If someone like Frans, who knows that world well, says Motsepe is working toward the presidency, you have to listen. Motsepe has a history of surrounding himself with top performers regardless of race and is a true global citizen. He currently serves as the president of the Confederation of African Football and has been tipped as a future FIFA president. Whether he prefers FIFA or South Africa remains to be seen. Our partners at the Financial Times reported today that the IMF has disclosed an "Uber truth": China heavily subsidises its industrial policy. If you are in certain Chinese industries, you receive state subsidies to make your products globally competitive. By devoting 4% of its GDP to industrial subsidies, China can land products in retailers—such as dog food or motor vehicles—at prices lower than the production costs of South African or Western companies. To put that 4% in context, a strong military typically requires 3% of GDP, while most Western countries spend below 1%. The IMF isn't asking to abolish these subsidies, but merely to halve them. It is a scary prospect that could hollow out global competitors. Finally, I spoke with mining guru Peter Major. We discussed the massive shift by mining majors away from iron ore toward copper. BHP, for example, delivered higher profits from copper than from coal or iron ore this week. With the rise of data centres and electric vehicles, the demand for copper is surging. Companies like Jubilee have even exited South African chrome to become "pure play" copper operations in Zambia. Peter suggests that while some think the "dance" is over, copper still has significant upside. I’m Alec Hogg. Until tomorrow, cheerio.

The Editor's Desk - Thu 19 Feb 2026: Patrice Motsepe’s presidential path and the global copper rush

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