The Editor's Desk - Mon 16 Jan 2026: Why South Africa is playing 2D chess in a 5D world

In today’s Editor's Desk, Alec Hogg explores the internal tensions within the Democratic Alliance as John Steenhuisen warns against a "death wish" exit from the Government of National Unity. We also take a deep dive into South Africa's complex trade negotiations with China, the potential rise of a BRICS currency, and why wealthy Chinese entrepreneurs are swapping Singapore for the "bling" of Dubai..Don't miss out on future episodes of The Editor's Desk. Subscribe to BizNews Premium and get the podcast delivered to your inbox daily..Listen here.Edited transcript of today's Editor's Desk episode.Hello and welcome. I’m Alec Hogg. By now, you’ve likely scanned the headlines on BizNews.com or caught the interviews on our BizNews Radio and BizNews TV channels. I hope you’ve been tuning in to Daybreak; it’s up and ready for you at 6:30 every morning. That means I have an early start, but that’s no problem—I love getting up before dawn. This morning, I actually heard the owls. I couldn’t believe it; when was the last time you heard an owl here? In my mind, the eagle is also quite a regular visitor. We live in the town, and it was just beautiful to hear that. But anyway, that’s not what today is about. It’s about sharing with you the real story, because the real story often lives in the margins—the context that doesn't make the press release and the whispers we pick up after the record button stops. Whether it’s the shifting sands of geopolitics or the political currents shaping our economy, that is what we do here. We strip away the polish to tell you the backstory and why it actually matters. This is the Editor’s Desk, exclusive analysis for our premium members. Today is Monday, the 16th of February 2026. I’m glad to have you with me. We’ve really got a power-packed offering for you on the BizNews.com website today. Let me focus on three stories that are the "pick of the bunch" and certainly caught my attention. Firstly, there is a piece regarding Jeffrey Epstein—a really good article written by Stephen Boykin Sidley on The Daily Friend. We also have Terence Corrigan’s assessment of foot and mouth disease, where he asks: how did we get to this point?Then there’s an excellent piece about John Steenhuisen, warning that if South Africa were to develop a "death wish," it would be the end of the Government of National Unity (GNU). The fact that Steenhuisen is warning his colleagues in the Democratic Alliance—just days after saying he will not be standing for re-election as party leader—tells you there is clearly significant concern or internal issues. A number of people are asking if they should really be part of this ANC-led operation. Steenhuisen was quite forthright; he attributed the dissent to a "right-wing grouping" in the party who reckon we should be following the Donald Trump approach here in South Africa. I don’t know how accurate that is. Given Donald Trump’s poor ratings both in the US and in our country, I find it hard to believe people seriously think those policies would work here. However, Steenhuisen is warning against it. On the other hand, some believe very strongly that the DA should not be part of the GNU because it is being "tarred with the same brush." Politics involves a lot of emotion, and quite often, thoughtfulness goes out of the window. Perhaps this is what Steenhuisen is urging his colleagues to consider—that this isn't a personal thing for him. Many critics have suggested he only promotes the GNU to earn a salary as the Minister of Agriculture. I think that’s just ridiculous; the man has shown more depth than that over the years. But you will always have those who jump to superficial conclusions. By the same token, for Steenhuisen to write off critics of the GNU as merely "a bunch of right-wingers" is also perhaps a little beyond the pale. We know South Africa is in a crisis. It needs fixing, and it needs more intelligence applied in the public sector. A good example of the lack thereof is the latest framework put together by Parks Tau, the Trade and Industry Minister. Interestingly, Tau was a latecomer to that portfolio, which was strange given his lack of expertise in the area. But then again, ministers rarely have expertise in their portfolios; it just seems to work like that in politics. There was a very strong case for Geordin Hill-Lewis coming into the cabinet to take over that portfolio, and much speculation that the DA would take it. They didn't. Now, Tau and his bureaucrats have put together a trade deal framework with China. They have trumpeted figures which look impressive on the face of it and maintain they need the deal finished by the end of March. I had a chat with Donald MacKay, a truly exceptional talent who focuses on trade and is the CEO of XA Global Partners. I’ve seen his insights firsthand, so I asked him about this framework. You can find the full, detailed interview on BizNews TV and Radio. In short, it appears South Africa is entering negotiations with a vastly superior opponent and doing something that makes no sense. It’s the old story of Dunning-Kruger, where those with the most confidence often know the least. Trade is complex. When negotiating with the Chinese, you are dealing with a bureaucracy that goes back thousands of years. Being a bureaucrat in China is a proud, multi-generational career path. They are highly transactional and know exactly what they are doing. I would refer you to an interview I did with Johan Human, a South African who ran the dispute resolution area at the World Trade Organization (WTO). He explained how the Chinese out-negotiated everyone at the WTO by sticking to the letter of the law, if not the spirit. While Donald Trump’s policies aren't popular in South Africa, they are addressing a slide the US has been in for decades. We saw some of that from Marco Rubio at the Munich Security Conference over the weekend. His address was much better received than that of Vice President JD Vance a year ago. Rubio explained that nations need to be "partners, not vassals." There is a change in the world order occurring because one side has been far smarter at the negotiating table—and that side is the Chinese. You only have to look at the growth of their economy and the de-industrialisation of the West to see it. Now, South Africa is sending "lambs to the slaughter." As Donald unpacks that framework, you can see it is a case of "innocents taking on experts." One last thing: because of the one-child policy, children in China are taught to be hyper-competitive from a young age. This is where "Tiger Moms" come from—driving children toward hard sciences so they can become bureaucrats or entrepreneurs. These are people used to working 12-hour days from childhood. In the West, it’s not easy to compete with such disciplined policymakers. South Africa needs to take a deep breath and bring in people who can negotiate on an equal level. We also have an excellent piece today from Jim O’Neill, former chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management and UK Treasury Minister. He originally coined the "BRIC" acronym to describe the emerging bloc of Brazil, Russia, India, and China. He didn't anticipate they would formalise the group or bring in South Africa. He writes for BizNews today about what might happen next with a BRICS currency. He initially thought it impossible—questioning if India or South Africa would ever give up their central banks or the Rand—but recent developments suggest it might happen. President Xi is driving the agenda to make the Renminbi a global reserve currency, while Donald Trump seems to be making the US Dollar less appealing. Finally, do read the piece on Dubai. There has been a flood of wealthy Chinese immigrants moving there. While they previously established themselves in Singapore, that city-state isn't as "inviting for the bling" that the newly rich love to display. Consequently, they are finding a happier home in Dubai. This piece from The Economist explains a lot about how the world is changing. On the southern tip of Africa, it feels like we are playing "5D chess" when we only know "2D chess." I wish Pretoria would take a step back and pull in the great expertise we have in this country. We aren't asking the right people the right questions. In a developing country, politics trumps economics—political decisions decide the fate of the economy. Our sliding GDP per capita over the last ten years is proof that our current approach is not working. I’ll leave it there for today. Don’t forget to sign up for BNC#8, there are fewer than 100 places left out of 600. With three weeks to go, tickets will likely be gone soon. Have a look at the 28 incredible keynote speakers we’ve lined up. Thanks for trusting us with your time. I’m Alec Hogg, until tomorrow. Cheerio.

The Editor's Desk - Mon 16 Jan 2026: Why South Africa is playing 2D chess in a 5D world

Related Stories

Hersov: There are two South Africas — it's time Washington started treating them differently

John Matisonn: SACP hands DA its first township win

The Rand's reckoning: George Glynos

Members Only: BNC#8 Donald Mackay Q&A - The shocking truth about South Africa’s missing billions